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The composition of capital inflows when emerging market firms face financing constraints

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  • Katherine A. Smith
  • Diego Valderrama

Abstract

The composition of capital inflows to emerging market economies tends to follow a predictable dynamic pattern across the business cycle. In most emerging market economies, total inflows are procyclical, with debt and portfolio equity flowing in first, followed later in the expansion by foreign direct investment (FDI). To understand the timing of these flows, we use a small open economy (SOE) framework to model the composition of capital inflows as the equilibrium outcome of emerging market firms' financing decisions. We show how costly external financing and foreign direct investment search costs generate a state contingent cost of financing, so that the \"cheapest\" source of financing depends on the phase of the business cycle. In this manner, the financial frictions are able to explain the interaction between the types of flows and deliver a time varying composition of flows, as well as other standard features of emerging market business cycles. If, as this work suggests, flows are an equilibrium outcome of firms' financing decisions then volatility of capital inflows is not necessarily \"bad\" for an economy. Furthermore, using capital controls to shut down one type of flow and encourage another is certain to have both long- and short-run welfare implications.

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  • Katherine A. Smith & Diego Valderrama, 2007. "The composition of capital inflows when emerging market firms face financing constraints," Working Paper Series 2007-13, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfwp:2007-13
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    Cited by:

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    2. Joyce, Joseph P., 2019. "Partners, not debtors: The external liabilities of emerging market economies," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 320-337.
    3. Calderón, César & Kubota, Megumi, 2013. "Sudden stops: Are global and local investors alike?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 122-142.
    4. Diego Valderrama & Katherine Smith, 2009. "Why Do Emerging Economies Import Direct Investment and Export Savings? A Story of Financial Underdevelopment," 2009 Meeting Papers 1160, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    5. Contessi, Silvio & De Pace, Pierangelo & Francis, Johanna L., 2012. "Changes in the second-moment properties of disaggregated capital flows," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 122-127.
    6. Silvio Contessi & Pierangelo De Pace, 2012. "(Non-)Resiliency Of Foreign Direct Investment In The United States During The 2007–2009 Financial Crisis," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(3), pages 368-390, August.
    7. Taeyoon Sung & Jong-Hee Kim, 2016. "Unconventional Monetary Policy, Global Liquidity Circulation, and Inflation Divergence around the World," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 54(1), pages 6-26, March.
    8. Cho, Ilhyun & Contessi, Silvio & Russ, Katheryn N. & Valderrama, Diego, 2019. "Financial choice and international trade," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 297-319.
    9. Katherine A. Smith, 2011. "Can Financing Constraints Explain The Asset Pricing Puzzles In Production Economies?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 52(3), pages 739-765, August.
    10. Li, Suxiao & de Haan, Jakob & Scholtens, Bert, 2018. "Cyclical behavior of international fund flows," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 99-112.
    11. Katheryn N. Russ & Diego Valderrama, 2009. "Financial choice in a non-Ricardian model of trade," Working Paper Series 2009-27, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    12. Petia Topalova & Mr. Jaime Guajardo & Mr. John C Bluedorn & Rupa Duttagupta, 2013. "Capital Flows are Fickle: Anytime, Anywhere," IMF Working Papers 2013/183, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Joshua Aizenman & Ilan Noy, 2008. "Links between Trade and Finance: A Disaggregated Analysis," NBER Chapters, in: Financial Markets Volatility and Performance in Emerging Markets, pages 9-28, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Katheryn N. Russ, 2009. "The New Theory of Foreign Direct Investment: Merging Trade and Capital Flows," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(1), pages 107-119, May.
    15. Hyun Song Shin & Viral Acharya & Tanju Yorulmazer, 2011. "Fire Sale FDI," Korean Economic Review, Korean Economic Association, vol. 27, pages 163-202.
    16. Contessi, Silvio & De Pace, Pierangelo & Francis, Johanna L., 2013. "The cyclical properties of disaggregated capital flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 528-555.
    17. Grzegorz Tchorek & Michał Brzozowski & Paweł Śliwiński, 2017. "Determinants of capital flows to emerging and advanced economies between 1990 and 2011," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 16(1), pages 17-48, April.
    18. Contessi, Silvio & De Pace, Pierangelo, 2009. "Do European capital flows comove?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 145-161, August.
    19. Jinjarak, Yothin & Wongswan, Jon & Zheng, Huanhuan, 2011. "International fund investment and local market returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 572-587, March.
    20. Lim, Jamus Jerome & Mohapatra, Sanket, 2016. "Quantitative easing and the post-crisis surge in financial flows to developing countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 331-357.
    21. Sayantan Bandhu Majumder & Ranjanendra Narayan Nag, 2016. "Understanding the Behaviour of Capital Flow and its Components: The Indian Experience," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 10(3), pages 355-380, August.
    22. Adugna Olani, 2016. "Dynamic Capital Inflow Transmission Of Monetary Policy To Emerging Markets," Working Paper 1358, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    23. Nan Li, 2011. "Cyclical Wage Movements in Emerging Markets Compared to Developed Economies: the Role of Interest Rates," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(4), pages 686-704, October.
    24. Cavoli, Tony, 2014. "Substitutes or complements? The interactions between components of capital inflows for Asia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31, pages 32-41.
    25. Nan Li, 2007. "Cyclical Wage Movements in Emerging Markets Compared to Developed Economies: A Contractual Approach," Discussion Papers 06-026, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.

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    Capital movements; Emerging markets;

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