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Breaks in the variability and co-movement of G-7 economic growth

  • Brian M. Doyle
  • Jon Faust

This paper investigates breaks in the variability and co-movement of output, consumption, and investment in the G-7 economies. In contrast with most other papers on co-movement, we test for changes in co-movement allowing for breaks in mean and variance. Despite claims that rising integration among these economies has increased output correlations among them, we find no clear evidence of an increase in correlation of growth rates of output, consumption, or investment. This finding is true even for the United States and Canada, which have seen a tremendous increase in bilateral trade shares, and for the members of the euro area in the G-7.

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File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/2003/786/default.htm
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File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/2003/786/ifdp786.pdf
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Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series International Finance Discussion Papers with number 786.

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Date of creation: 2003
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:786
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  8. Jushan Bai, 2000. "Vector Autoregressive Models with Structural Changes in Regression Coefficients and in Variance-Covariance Matrices," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 1(2), pages 303-339, November.
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  10. Monfort, Alain & Renne, Jean-Paul & Rüffer, Rasmus & Vitale, Giovanni, 2003. "Is Economic Activity in the G7 Synchronized? Common Shocks versus Spillover Effects," CEPR Discussion Papers 4119, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  14. Forbes, Kristin & Chinn, Menzie, 2003. "A Decomposition of Global Linkages in Financial Markets over Time," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt6z74b3x7, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
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  22. Faust, Jon, 1998. "The robustness of identified VAR conclusions about money," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 207-244, December.
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  24. Baxter, Marianne, 1995. "International trade and business cycles," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 35, pages 1801-1864 Elsevier.
  25. M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Charles H. Whiteman, 2005. "Understanding the Evolution of World Business Cycles," IMF Working Papers 05/211, International Monetary Fund.
  26. Jon Faust, 1998. "The robustness of identified VAR conclusions about money," International Finance Discussion Papers 610, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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  29. Robin Brooks & Marco Del Negro, 2002. "The rise in comovement across national stock markets: market integration or IT bubble?," Working Paper 2002-17, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
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  39. Geweke, John, 1981. "The Approximate Slopes of Econometric Tests," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1427-42, November.
  40. Brian M. Doyle & Jon Faust, 2002. "An investigation of co-movements among the growth rates of the G-7 countries," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Oct, pages 427-437.
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