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The Decline in Australian Output Volatility

Author Info

Listed author(s):
  • John Simon

    (Reserve Bank of Australia)

Abstract

There has been a large decline in the volatility of Australian output over the past 40 years. This paper looks at the causes of this decline. Accounting for part of the change have been substantial changes in the inventories cycle. Abstracting from changes in the inventories cycle there have also been significant declines in underlying output volatility. This paper focuses on the underlying structural factors for the reduction in volatility. It finds that the principal cause of the decline has been a decline in the shocks hitting the economy rather than an increase in structural stability. Furthermore, the primary explanation seems to lie in a reduction in the volatility of supply or ‘productivity’ shocks. The ultimate source of these productivity shocks is left as an open question.

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File URL: http://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2001/pdf/rdp2001-01.pdf
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Paper provided by Reserve Bank of Australia in its series RBA Research Discussion Papers with number rdp2001-01.

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Date of creation: Mar 2001
Handle: RePEc:rba:rbardp:rdp2001-01
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Keywords: business cycles; output growth; structural VAR; volatility;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

  • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
  • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
  • E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions

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  1. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-673, September.
  2. J. Bradford DeLong & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "The Changing Cyclical Variability of Economic Activity in the United States," NBER Chapters,in: The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, pages 679-734 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Ramey, Garey & Ramey, Valerie A, 1995. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link between Volatility and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1138-1151, December.
  4. Weir, David R., 1986. "The Reliability of Historical Macroeconomic Data for Comparing Cyclical Stability," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 46(02), pages 353-365, June.
  5. Martin, Philippe & Ann Rogers, Carol, 2000. "Long-term growth and short-term economic instability," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 359-381, February.
  6. Otto, Glenn, 1999. "The Solow Residual for Australia: Technology Shocks or Factor Utilization?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 37(1), pages 136-153, January.
  7. Olivier Blanchard & John Simon, 2001. "The Long and Large Decline in U.S. Output Volatility," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 32(1), pages 135-174.
  8. Margaret M. McConnell & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2000. "Output fluctuations in the United States: what has changed since the early 1980s?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
  9. David Gruen & Glenn Stevens, 2000. "Australian Macroeconomic Performances and Policies in the 1990s," RBA Annual Conference Volume,in: David Gruen & Sona Shrestha (ed.), The Australian Economy in the 1990s Reserve Bank of Australia.
  10. Olivier J. Blanchard & Mark W. Watson, 1986. "Are Business Cycles All Alike?," NBER Chapters,in: The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, pages 123-180 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Jordi Galí, 1992. "How Well Does The IS-LM Model Fit Postwar U. S. Data?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 107(2), pages 709-738.
  12. Balke, Nathan S & Gordon, Robert J, 1989. "The Estimation of Prewar Gross National Product: Methodology and New Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(1), pages 38-92, February.
  13. Romer, Christina D, 1986. "Is the Stabilization of the Postwar Economy a Figment of the Data?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(3), pages 314-334, June.
  14. Kormendi, Roger C. & Meguire, Philip G., 1985. "Macroeconomic determinants of growth: Cross-country evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 141-163, September.
  15. James, John A, 1993. "Changes in Economic Instability in 19th-Century America," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(4), pages 710-731, September.
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Cited by:

  1. Brian M. Doyle & Jon Faust, 2005. "Breaks in the Variability and Comovement of G-7 Economic Growth," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 721-740, November.
  2. Mardi Dungey, 2005. "Discussion of 'Assessing the Sources of Changes in the Volatility of Real Growth'," RBA Annual Conference Volume,in: Christopher Kent & David Norman (ed.), The Changing Nature of the Business Cycle Reserve Bank of Australia.
  3. Ric Battellino & Michael Plumb, 2011. "A generation of an internationalised Australian dollar," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Currency internationalisation: lessons from the global financial crisis and prospects for the future in Asia and the Pacific, volume 61, pages 202-217 Bank for International Settlements.
  4. Robert Buckle & David Haugh & Peter Thomson, 2003. "Calm after the storm? Supply-side contributions to New Zealand's GDP volatility decline," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(2), pages 217-243.
  5. Christopher Kent & Kylie Smith & James Holloway, 2005. "Declining Output Volatility: What Role for Structural Change?," RBA Annual Conference Volume,in: Christopher Kent & David Norman (ed.), The Changing Nature of the Business Cycle Reserve Bank of Australia.
  6. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2003. "Has the business cycle changed?," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 9-56.
  7. William Martin & Robert Rowthorn, 2004. "Will Stability Last?," CESifo Working Paper Series 1324, CESifo Group Munich.
  8. Robert A Buckle & David Haugh & Peter Thomson, 2002. "Growth and volatility regime switching models for New Zealand GDP data," Treasury Working Paper Series 02/08, New Zealand Treasury.
  9. Kihaule, Arnold Mathias, 2012. "The impact of economic policy shocks on the outcomes of the fiscal adjustment policies in Tanzania," MPRA Paper 46151, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Feb 2013.
  10. Christian Gillitzer & Jonathan Kearns & Anthony Richards, 2005. "The Australian Business Cycle: A Coincident Indicator Approach," RBA Annual Conference Volume,in: Christopher Kent & David Norman (ed.), The Changing Nature of the Business Cycle Reserve Bank of Australia.
  11. Claudia M. Buch & Joerg Doepke & Christian Pierdzioch, 2004. "Business Cycle Volatility in Germany," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 5(4), pages 451-479, November.
  12. Ulrich Fritsche & Vladimir Kuzin, 2005. "Declining output volatility in Germany: impulses, propagation, and the role of monetary policy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(21), pages 2445-2457.
  13. Ossama Mikhail, 2004. "No More Rocking Horses: Trading Business-Cycle Depth for Duration Using an Economy-Specific Characteristic," Macroeconomics 0402026, EconWPA.
  14. Christopher Kent & Kylie Smith & James Holloway, 2005. "Declining Output Volatility: What Role for Structural Change?," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2005-08, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  15. Robert McCauley, 2006. "Internationalising a currency: the case of the Australian dollar," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
  16. Barrera, Carlos R., 2011. "Impacto amplificador del ajuste de inventarios ante choques de demanda según especificaciones flexibles," Working Papers 2011-009, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
  17. David Shepherd & Robert Dixon, 2010. "The not-so-great moderation? Evidence on changing volatility from Australian regions," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 1090, The University of Melbourne.

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