IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper

Historical Macroeconomics and American Macroeconomic History

  • Charles W. Calomiris
  • Christopher Hanes

What can macroeconomic history offer macroeconomic theorists and macroeconometricians? Macroeconomic history offers more than longer time series or special `controlled experiments.' It suggests an historical definition of the economy, which has implications for macroeconometric methods. The defining characteristic of the historical view is its emphasis on `path dependence': ways in which the cumulative past, including the history of shocks and their effects, change the structure of the economy. This essay reviews American macroeconomic history to illustrate its potential uses and draw out methodological implications. `Keynesian' models can account for the most obvious cycle patterns in all historical periods, while `new classical' models cannot. Nominal wage rigidity was important historically and some models of wage rigidity receive more support from history than others.A shortcoming of both Keynesian and new-classical approaches is the assumption that low-frequency change is exogenous to demand. The history of the Kuznets cycle shows how aggregate-demand shocks can produce endogenous changes in aggregate supply. Economies of scale, learning effects, and convergences of expectations-many within the spatial contexts of city building and frontier settlement-seem to have been very important in making the aggregate supply `path-dependent.' Institutional innovation (especially government regulation) has been another source of endogenous change in aggregate supply. The historical view's emphasis on endogenous structural change points in the analysis over short sample periods to identify the sources and consequences of macroeconomic shocks.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w4935.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 4935.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: Nov 1994
Date of revision:
Publication status: published as Hoover, Kevin D. (ed.) Macroeconometrics: Developments, Tensions, and Prospects. Kluwer Academic Press, 1995.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:4935
Note: DAE EFG
Contact details of provider: Postal:
National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.

Phone: 617-868-3900
Web page: http://www.nber.org
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Kevin M. Murphy & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1988. "Industrialization and the Big Push," NBER Working Papers 2708, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Wright, Gavin, 1979. "Cheap Labor and Southern Textiles before 1880," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 39(03), pages 655-680, September.
  3. Romer, Christina D., 1994. "Remeasuring Business Cycles," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 54(03), pages 573-609, September.
  4. Robert J. Gordon, 1981. "Output Fluctuations and Gradual Price Adjustment," NBER Working Papers 0621, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Hanes, Christopher, 1993. "The Development of Nominal Wage Rigidity in the Late 19th Century," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(4), pages 732-56, September.
  6. N. Gregory Mankiw, 1989. "Real Business Cycles: A New Keynesian Perspective," NBER Working Papers 2882, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum, 1990. "Current real business cycle theories and aggregate labor market fluctuations," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 90, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  8. Clarence D. Long, 1960. "Introduction to "Wages and Earnings in the United States, 1860-1890"," NBER Chapters, in: Wages and Earnings in the United States, 1860-1890, pages 1-12 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Ben S. Bernanke, 1994. "The Macroeconomics of the Great Depression: A Comparative Approach," NBER Working Papers 4814, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Naomi R. Lamoreaux, 1994. "Insider Lending: Banks, Personal Connections, and Economic Development in Industrial New England," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number lamo94-1.
  11. Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1991. "Have postwar economic fluctuations been stabilized?," Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section 116, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  12. Thomas J. Sargent, 1981. "The ends of four big inflations," Working Papers 158, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  13. Plosser, C.I., 1989. "Understanding Real Business Cycles," Papers 89-03, Rochester, Business - General.
  14. Clark, Truman A, 1986. "Interest Rate Seasonals and the Federal Reserve," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(1), pages 76-125, February.
  15. Christina D. Romer, 1986. "The Prewar Business Cycle Reconsidered: New Estimates of Gross NationalProduct, 1869-1918," NBER Working Papers 1969, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Miron, Jeffrey A, 1986. "Financial Panics, the Seasonality of the Nominal Interest Rate, and theFounding of the Fed," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(1), pages 125-40, March.
  17. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-73, September.
  18. Crucini, Mario J, 1994. "Sources of Variation in Real Tariff Rates: The United States, 1900-1940," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(3), pages 732-43, June.
  19. Davis, Lance E., 1960. "The New England Textile Mills and the Capital Markets: A Study of Industrial Borrowing 1840–1860," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(01), pages 1-30, March.
  20. Bresnahan, Timothy F. & Raff, Daniel M. G., 1991. "Intra-Industry Heterogeneity and the Great Depression: The American Motor Vehicles Industry, 1929–1935," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 51(02), pages 317-331, June.
  21. James Tobin, 1993. "Price Flexibility and Output Stability: An Old Keynesian View," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 45-65, Winter.
  22. Thor Hultgren, 1960. "Appendices to "Changes in Labor Cost During Cycles in Production and Business"," NBER Chapters, in: Changes in Labor Cost During Cycles in Production and Business, pages 79-85 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  23. Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi & Huffman, Gregory W, 1988. "Investment, Capacity Utilization, and the Real Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 402-17, June.
  24. Robert E. Lipsey, 1963. "Introduction to "Price and Quantity Trends in the Foreign Trade of the United States"," NBER Chapters, in: Price and Quantity Trends in the Foreign Trade of the United States, pages 3-7 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  25. Barro, Robert J, 1981. "Output Effects of Government Purchases," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(6), pages 1086-1121, December.
  26. Calomiris, Charles W. & Hanes, Christopher, 1994. "Consistent Output Series for the Antebellum and Postbellum Periods: Issues and Preliminary Results," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 54(02), pages 409-422, June.
  27. Claudia Goldin & Kenneth Sokoloff, 1984. "The Relative Productivity Hypothesis of Industrialization: The American Case, 1820 to 1850," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 99(3), pages 461-487.
  28. Moses Abramovitz, 1964. "Evidences of Long Swings in Aggregate Construction Since the Civil War," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number abra64-1.
  29. Michael D. Bordo & Barry Eichengreen, 1993. "A Retrospective on the Bretton Woods System: Lessons for International Monetary Reform," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bord93-1.
  30. Calomiris, Charles W, 1988. "Price and Exchange Rate Determination during the Greenback Suspension," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 40(4), pages 719-50, December.
  31. Phillip Cagan, 1975. "Changes in the Recession Behavior of Wholesale Prices in the 1920s and Post-World War II," NBER Chapters, in: Explorations in Economic Research, Volume 2, number 1, pages 54-104 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  32. Snowden, Kenneth, 1986. "Three Essays on the American Capital Market, 1870–1913," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 46(02), pages 491-493, June.
  33. Dennis W. Carlton, 1986. "The Rigidity of Prices," NBER Working Papers 1813, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  34. repec:fth:harver:1470 is not listed on IDEAS
  35. Mankiw, N Gregory, 1990. "A Quick Refresher Course in Macroeconomics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 28(4), pages 1645-60, December.
  36. Thor Hultgren, 1960. "Changes in Labor Cost During Cycles in Production and Business," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number hult60-1.
  37. Robert A. Margo, 1990. "The Microeconomics of Depression Unemployment," NBER Historical Working Papers 0018, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  38. Atack, Jeremy & Bateman, Fred & Weiss, Thomas, 1980. "The Regional Diffusion and Adoption of the Steam Engine in American Manufacturing," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 40(02), pages 281-308, June.
  39. Robert J. Gordon, 1986. "The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number gord86-1.
  40. Sachs, Jeffrey, 1980. "The Changing Cyclical Behavior of Wages and Prices: 1890-1976," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(1), pages 78-90, March.
  41. Matthew D. Shapiro & Mark W. Watson, 1988. "Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 2589, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  42. Sundstrom, William A., 1990. "Was There a Golden Age of Flexible Wages? Evidence from Ohio Manufacturing, 1892–1910," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 50(02), pages 309-320, June.
  43. Devine, Warren D., 1983. "From Shafts to Wires: Historical Perspective on Electrification," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 43(02), pages 347-372, June.
  44. Cooley, T.F. & Ohanian, L.E., 1989. "The Cyclical Behavior Of Prices," RCER Working Papers 188, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  45. Evans, Paul, 1985. "Do Large Deficits Produce High Interest Rates?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(1), pages 68-87, March.
  46. Hanes, Christopher, 1996. "Changes in the Cyclical Behavior of Real Wage Rates, 1870–1990," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 56(04), pages 837-861, December.
  47. Sylla, Richard, 1969. "Federal Policy, Banking Market Structure, and Capital Mobilization in the United States, 1863–1913," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 29(04), pages 657-686, December.
  48. Lazear, Edward P, 1981. "Agency, Earnings Profiles, Productivity, and Hours Restrictions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(4), pages 606-20, September.
  49. Romer, Christina, 1986. "Spurious Volatility in Historical Unemployment Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(1), pages 1-37, February.
  50. Bernanke, Ben S & Parkinson, Martin L, 1991. "Procyclical Labor Productivity and Competing Theories of the Business Cycle: Some Evidence from Interwar U.S. Manufacturing Industries," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(3), pages 439-59, June.
  51. John S. Hekman, 1980. "The Product Cycle and New England Textiles," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 94(4), pages 697-717.
  52. Kroszner, Randall S & Rajan, Raghuram G, 1994. "Is the Glass-Steagall Act Justified? A Study of the U.S. Experience with Universal Banking before 1933," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(4), pages 810-32, September.
  53. Barry J. Eichengreen & Jeffrey Sachs, 1984. "Exchange Rates and Economic Recovery in the 1930s," NBER Working Papers 1498, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  54. Smith, Bruce D, 1985. "Some Colonial Evidence on Two Theories of Money: Maryland and the Carolinas," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(6), pages 1178-1211, December.
  55. Robert J. Gordon, 1986. "Front matter, The American Business Cycle. Continuity and Change," NBER Chapters, in: The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, pages -15 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  56. Kenneth L. Sokoloff, 1988. "Inventive Activity in Early Industrial America: Evidence From Patent Records, 1790 - 1846," NBER Working Papers 2707, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  57. Mark Bils, 1989. "Pricing in a Customer Market," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 104(4), pages 699-718.
  58. Barro, Robert J., 1987. "Government spending, interest rates, prices, and budget deficits in the United Kingdom, 1701-1918," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 221-247, September.
  59. Wheelock, David C, 1990. "Member Bank Borrowing and the Fed's Contractionary Monetary Policy during the Great Depression," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 22(4), pages 409-26, November.
  60. Ben S. Bernanke, 1983. "Non-Monetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in the Propagation of the Great Depression," NBER Working Papers 1054, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  61. Milton Friedman & Anna J. Schwartz, 1963. "A Monetary History of the United States, 1867–1960," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie63-1.
  62. Robert A. Margo, 1993. "Employment and Unemployment in the 1930s," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 7(2), pages 41-59, Spring.
  63. David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe, 1992. "International Evidence on the Historical Properties of Business Cycles," Working Papers 92-5, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
  64. Mark W. Watson, 1992. "Business Cycle Durations and Postwar Stabilization of the U.S. Economy," NBER Working Papers 4005, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  65. Evanoff, Douglas D, 1988. "Branch Banking and Service Accessibility," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 20(2), pages 191-202, May.
  66. Field, Alexander J., 1987. "Modern Business Enterprise as a Capital-Saving Innovation," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 47(02), pages 473-485, June.
  67. Thomas J. Sargent, 1981. "Stopping moderate inflations: the methods of Poincaré and Thatcher," Working Papers 1, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  68. Miron, Jeffrey A. & Romer, Christina D., 1990. "A New Monthly Index of Industrial Production, 1884–1940," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 50(02), pages 321-337, June.
  69. Bruce D. Smith, 1985. "American Colonial Monetary Regimes: The Failure of the Quantity Theory and Some Evidence in Favour of an Alternative View," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 18(3), pages 531-65, August.
  70. Romer, Christina D, 1986. "Is the Stabilization of the Postwar Economy a Figment of the Data?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(3), pages 314-34, June.
  71. Robert B. Barsky & N. Gregory Mankiw & Jeffrey A. Miron & David N. Weil, 1987. "The Worldwide Change in the Behavior of Interest Rates and Prices in 1914," NBER Working Papers 2344, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  72. Charles W. Calomiris & R. Glenn Hubbard, 1989. "Price Flexibility, Credit Availability, and Economic Fluctuations: Evidence from the United States, 1894–1909," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 104(3), pages 429-452.
  73. Bodenhorn, Howard, 1992. "Capital Mobility and Financial Integration in Antebellum America," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 52(03), pages 585-610, September.
  74. Balke, Nathan S & Gordon, Robert J, 1989. "The Estimation of Prewar Gross National Product: Methodology and New Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(1), pages 38-92, February.
  75. Gordon, Robert J, 1990. "What Is New-Keynesian Economics?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 28(3), pages 1115-71, September.
  76. Gavin Wright, 1981. "Cheap Labor and Southern Textiles, 1880–1930," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 96(4), pages 605-629.
  77. Weir, David R., 1986. "The Reliability of Historical Macroeconomic Data for Comparing Cyclical Stability," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 46(02), pages 353-365, June.
  78. B. Zorina Khan & Kenneth L. Sokoloff, 1992. "'Schemes of Practical Utility': Entrepreneurship and Innovation Among 'Great Inventors' in the United States, 1790-1865," NBER Historical Working Papers 0042, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  79. David, Paul A, 1990. "The Dynamo and the Computer: An Historical Perspective on the Modern Productivity Paradox," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 355-61, May.
  80. Krugman, Paul, 1991. "Increasing Returns and Economic Geography," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(3), pages 483-99, June.
  81. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro, 1987. "Monopolistic Competition and the Effects of Aggregate Demand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(4), pages 647-66, September.
  82. Calomiris, Charles W., 1990. "Is Deposit Insurance Necessary? A Historical Perspective," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 50(02), pages 283-295, June.
  83. Robert E. Lipsey, 1963. "Price and Quantity Trends in the Foreign Trade of the United States," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number lips63-1.
  84. Eichengreen, Barry & Sachs, Jeffrey, 1986. "Competitive devaluation and the Great Depression : A theoretical reassessment," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 67-71.
  85. Barro, Robert J, 1979. "Second Thoughts on Keynesian Economics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(2), pages 54-59, May.
  86. Rosenbloom, Joshua L., 1990. "One Market or Many? Labor Market Integration in the Late Nineteenth-Century United States," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 50(01), pages 85-107, March.
  87. Jess Benhabib & Richard Rogerson & Randall Wright, 1991. "Homework in macroeconomics: household production and aggregate fluctuations," Staff Report 135, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  88. Davis, Lance E., 1965. "The Investment Market, 1870–1914: The Evolution of a National Market," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(03), pages 355-399, September.
  89. Calomiris, Charles W. & Schweikart, Larry, 1991. "The Panic of 1857: Origins, Transmission, and Containment," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 51(04), pages 807-834, December.
  90. Hansen, Gary D & Prescott, Edward C, 1993. "Did Technology Shocks Cause the 1990-1991 Recession?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(2), pages 280-86, May.
  91. James, John A, 1993. "Changes in Economic Instability in 19th-Century America," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(4), pages 710-31, September.
  92. Charles W. Calomiris, 1993. "Financial Factors in the Great Depression," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 7(2), pages 61-85, Spring.
  93. David Romer, 1993. "The New Keynesian Synthesis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 5-22, Winter.
  94. Field, Alexander James, 1983. "Land Abundance, Interest/Profit Rates, and Nineteenth-Century American and British Technology," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 43(02), pages 405-431, June.
  95. Clarence D. Long, 1960. "Wages and Earnings in the United States, 1860-1890," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number long60-1.
  96. Olmstead, Alan L & Rhode, Paul, 1985. "Rationing without Government: The West Coast Gas Famine of 1920," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(5), pages 1044-55, December.
  97. Robert E. Lucas, Jr. & Michael Woodford, 1993. "Real Effects of Monetary Shocks in an Economy with Sequential Purchases," NBER Working Papers 4250, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  98. Eichengreen, Barry, 1996. "Golden Fetters: The Gold Standard and the Great Depression, 1919-1939," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195101133, May.
  99. Margo, Robert A., 1990. "The incidence and duration of unemployment : Some long-term comparisons," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 217-220, March.
  100. Calomiris, Charles W., 1988. "Institutional Failure, Monetary Scarcity, and the Depreciation of the Continental," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 48(01), pages 47-68, March.
  101. Sanford M. Jacoby & Sunil Sharma, 1991. "Employment Duration and Industrial Labor Mobility in the United States, 1880-1980," UCLA Economics Working Papers 618, UCLA Department of Economics.
  102. Wright, Gavin, 1990. "The Origins of American Industrial Success, 1879-1940," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 651-68, September.
  103. Alogoskoufis, George S & Smith, Ron, 1991. "The Phillips Curve, the Persistence of Inflation, and the Lucas Critique: Evidence from Exchange-Rate Regimes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(5), pages 1254-75, December.
  104. N. Gregory Mankiw, 1985. "Small Menu Costs and Large Business Cycles: A Macroeconomic Model of Monopoly," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 100(2), pages 529-538.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:4935. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.