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Changes in the Cyclical Sensitivity of Wages in the United States, 1891-1987

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  • Allen, Steven G

Abstract

The conventional wisdom that nominal wages became less sensitive to the business cycle and more autocorrelated after World War II is reexamined here by considering whether these properties are artifacts of the methods used to construct prewar wage series. A replication based on these methods is more cyclically sensitive and exhibits less autocorrelation than the postwar data. Aggregation using variable instead of fixed employment weights also greatly exaggerates the cyclicality of prewar wages. These biases imply that wages are just as sensitive to the cycle today as one hundred years ago, perhaps even more so. Copyright 1992 by American Economic Association.

Suggested Citation

  • Allen, Steven G, 1992. "Changes in the Cyclical Sensitivity of Wages in the United States, 1891-1987," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(1), pages 122-140, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:82:y:1992:i:1:p:122-40
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    Cited by:

    1. Kandil, Magda & Woods, Jeffrey G., 1995. "A cross-industry examination of the Lucas misperceptions model," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 55-76.
    2. Barry Eichengreen., 1993. "International Monetary Arrangements for the 21st Century," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C93-021, University of California at Berkeley.
    3. Barry Eichengreen., 1994. "History and Reform of the International Monetary System," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C94-041, University of California at Berkeley.
    4. Baffigi, Alberto & Bontempi, Maria Elena & Felice, Emanuele & Golinelli, Roberto, 2015. "The changing relationship between inflation and the economic cycle in Italy: 1861–2012," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 53-70.
    5. Daniel Kaufmann, 2020. "Is deflation costly after all? The perils of erroneous historical classifications," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(5), pages 614-628, August.
    6. Barry Eichengreen., 1993. "Prerequisites for International Monetary Stability," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C93-018, University of California at Berkeley.
    7. Barry Eichengreen., 1994. "Deja Vu All Over Again: Lessons from the Gold Standard for European Monetary Unification," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C94-032, University of California at Berkeley.
    8. Barry Eichengreen., 1992. "The Political Economy of Fiscal Policy After EMU," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C92-004, University of California at Berkeley.
    9. Drazen Derado & Antonela Mlikota, 2007. "Is Croatia Ready For The Emu?: An Ex Ante Analysis Of Nominal And Real Convergence," Economic Thought and Practice, Department of Economics and Business, University of Dubrovnik, vol. 16(2), pages 113-146, december.
    10. Thomas A. Garrett, 2009. "War And Pestilence As Labor Market Shocks: U.S. Manufacturing Wage Growth 1914–1919," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 47(4), pages 711-725, October.
    11. M.K. Lewis, 1994. "Monetary Policy‐Do We Need a New Agenda?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 70(211), pages 434-455, December.
    12. Daniel Kaufmann, 2016. "Is Deflation Costly After All? Evidence from Noisy Historical Data," KOF Working papers 16-421, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    13. Charles W. Calomiris & Christopher Hanes, 1994. "Historical Macroeconomics and American Macroeconomic History," NBER Working Papers 4935, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Amuedo-Dorantes, Catalina & Pozo, Susan, 2001. "Prewar and Postwar Macroeconomic Uncertainty: An International Perspective," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 615-631, October.
    15. Ward, Felix & Chen, Yao, 2016. "Rigid relations: External adjustment under the Gold Standard (1880-1913)," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145930, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    16. Chernyshoff, Natalia & Jacks, David S. & Taylor, Alan M., 2009. "Stuck on gold: Real exchange rate volatility and the rise and fall of the gold standard, 1875-1939," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 195-205, April.
    17. Dighe, Ranjit S. & Schmitt, Elizabeth Dunne, 2010. "Did U.S. wages become stickier between the world wars?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 165-181, August.
    18. Alan M. Taylor & Natalia Chernyshoff & David Jacks, 2005. "Stuck on Gold:Real Exchange Rate Volatility and the Rise and Fall of the Gold Standard, 1870?1939," Working Papers 237, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
    19. Daniel Kaufmann, 2019. "Nominal stability over two centuries," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 155(1), pages 1-23, December.
    20. Christina D. Romer, 1993. "The Nation in Depression," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 7(2), pages 19-39, Spring.
    21. Magda Kandil, 2006. "Nominal Wage Flexibility and Economic Performance: Evidence and Implications Across Industrial Countries," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(1), pages 25-49, January.
    22. Maurice Obstfeld, 1993. "The Adjustment Mechanism," NBER Chapters, in: A Retrospective on the Bretton Woods System: Lessons for International Monetary Reform, pages 201-268, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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