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War and pestilence as labor market shocks: manufacturing wage growth 1914-1919

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  • Thomas A. Garrett

Abstract

This paper explores the effect of mortalities from the 1918-1919 influenza pandemic and World War I on real wage growth in the manufacturing sectors of U.S. states from 1914 to 1919. The general hypothesis is that both events caused a significant decrease in the supply of manufacturing labor, thereby initially increasing the marginal product of labor and thus wages. The empirical results reveal that influenza mortalities led to a greater overall increase in real manufacturing wage growth, but the marginal effect on wage growth from an additional World War I combat mortality was greater than that from the influenza pandemic.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas A. Garrett, 2006. "War and pestilence as labor market shocks: manufacturing wage growth 1914-1919," Working Papers 2006-018, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2006-018
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    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. The economic impact of a pandemic : Wages during the Spanish Influenza
      by ? in FRED blog on 2020-03-05 14:00:00

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    Cited by:

    1. Karlsson, Martin & Nilsson, Therese & Pichler, Stefan, 2012. "What doesn't kill you makes you stronger? The impact of the 1918 Spanish flu epidemic on economic performance in Sweden," Darmstadt Discussion Papers in Economics 211, Darmstadt University of Technology, Department of Law and Economics.
    2. Fraser Summerfield & Livio Di Matteo, 2021. "Influenza Pandemics and Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Recent Economic History," Working Papers 210002, Canadian Centre for Health Economics.
    3. Karlsson, Martin & Nilsson, Therese & Pichler, Stefan, 2014. "The impact of the 1918 Spanish flu epidemic on economic performance in Sweden," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 1-19.
    4. Constantin Bürgi & Nisan Gorgulu, 2020. "Social Distancing and the Economic Impact of Covid-19 in the United States," CESifo Working Paper Series 8577, CESifo.
    5. Ilan Noy & Toshihiro Okubo & Eric Strobl, 2020. "The Japanese Textile Sector and the Influenza Pandemic of 1918-1920," CESifo Working Paper Series 8651, CESifo.
    6. Obrizan, Maksym & Karlsson, Martin & Matvieiev, Mykhailo, 2020. "The Macroeconomic Impact of the 1918–19 Influenza Pandemic in Sweden," MPRA Paper 98910, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. David E. Bloom & Michael Kuhn & Klaus Prettner, 2020. "Modern Infectious Diseases: Macroeconomic Impacts and Policy Responses," NBER Working Papers 27757, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Haelim Anderson & Jin-Wook Chang & Adam Copeland, 2020. "The Effect of the Central Bank Liquidity Support during Pandemics: Evidence from the 1918 Influenza Pandemic," Staff Reports 928, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    9. Carillo, Mario & Jappelli, Tullio, 2020. "Pandemics and Local Economic Growth: Evidence from the Great Influenza in Italy," CEPR Discussion Papers 14849, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Haelim Anderson & Jin-Wook Chang & Adam Copeland, 2020. "The Effect of the Central Bank Liquidity Support during Pandemics: Evidence from the 1918 Spanish Influenza Pandemic," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-050, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Wages; Manufacturing industries;

    JEL classification:

    • N62 - Economic History - - Manufacturing and Construction - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-
    • N32 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-
    • N92 - Economic History - - Regional and Urban History - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior

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