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War and pestilence as labor market shocks: manufacturing wage growth 1914-1919

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  • Thomas A. Garrett

Abstract

This paper explores the effect of mortalities from the 1918-1919 influenza pandemic and World War I on real wage growth in the manufacturing sectors of U.S. states from 1914 to 1919. The general hypothesis is that both events caused a significant decrease in the supply of manufacturing labor, thereby initially increasing the marginal product of labor and thus wages. The empirical results reveal that influenza mortalities led to a greater overall increase in real manufacturing wage growth, but the marginal effect on wage growth from an additional World War I combat mortality was greater than that from the influenza pandemic.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas A. Garrett, 2006. "War and pestilence as labor market shocks: manufacturing wage growth 1914-1919," Working Papers 2006-018, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2006-018
    DOI: 10.20955/wp.2006.018
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Wages; Manufacturing industries;

    JEL classification:

    • N62 - Economic History - - Manufacturing and Construction - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-
    • N32 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-
    • N92 - Economic History - - Regional and Urban History - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior

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