What Doesn't Kill You Makes You Stronger? The Impact of the 1918 Spanish Flu Epidemic on Economic Performance in Sweden
We study the impact of the 1918 influenza pandemic on economic performance in Sweden. The pandemic was one of the severest and deadliest pandemics in human history, but it has hitherto received only scant attention in the economic literature – despite important implications for modern-day pandemics. In this paper, we exploit seemingly exogenous variation in incidence rates between Swedish regions to estimate the impact of the pandemic. Using difference in-differences and high-quality administrative data from Sweden, we estimate the effects on earnings, capital returns and poverty. We find that the pandemic led to a significant increase in poverty rates. There is also relatively strong evidence that capital returns were negatively affected by the pandemic. On the other hand, we find robust evidence that the influenza had no discernible effect on earnings. This finding is surprising since it goes against most previous empirical studies as well as theoretical predictions.
|Date of creation:||04 Apr 2012|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Research Institute of Industrial Economics, Box 55665, SE-102 15 Stockholm, Sweden|
Phone: +46 8 665 4500
Fax: +46 8 665 4599
Web page: http://www.ifn.se/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Anderson, James E, 1979. "A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(1), pages 106-16, March.
- Philippe Aghion & Peter Howitt, 1990.
"A Model of Growth Through Creative Destruction,"
NBER Working Papers
3223, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Aghion, P. & Howitt, P., 1990. "A Model Of Growth Through Creative Destruction," DELTA Working Papers 90-12, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).
- Aghion, P. & Howitt, P., 1989. "A Model Of Growth Through Creative Destruction," UWO Department of Economics Working Papers 8904, University of Western Ontario, Department of Economics.
- Aghion, P. & Howitt, P., 1989. "A Model Of Growth Through Creative Destruction," Working papers 527, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Stephen G. Donald & Kevin Lang, 2007. "Inference with Difference-in-Differences and Other Panel Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(2), pages 221-233, May.
- Marianne Bertrand & Esther Duflo & Sendhil Mullainathan, 2004.
"How Much Should We Trust Differences-In-Differences Estimates?,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
Oxford University Press, vol. 119(1), pages 249-275.
- Marianne Bertrand & Esther Duflo & Sendhil Mullainathan, 2002. "How Much Should We Trust Differences-in-Differences Estimates?," NBER Working Papers 8841, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Raouf Boucekkine & Bity Diene & Theophile Azomahou, 2008.
"Growth Economics of Epidemics: A Review of the Theory,"
Mathematical Population Studies,
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(1), pages 1-26.
- BOUCEKKINE, Raouf & DIENE, Bity & AZOMAHOU, Théophile, . "Growth economics of epidemics: A review of the theory," CORE Discussion Papers RP 2004, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Thomas A. Garrett, 2009. "War And Pestilence As Labor Market Shocks: U.S. Manufacturing Wage Growth 1914-1919," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 47(4), pages 711-725, October.
- Raouf Boucekkine & Jean-Pierre Laffargue, 2010.
"On the distributional consequences of epidemics,"
Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers)
- Raouf BOUCEKKINE & Jean-Pierre LAFFARGUE, 2009. "On the Distributional Consequences of Epidemics," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 2009012, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
- Raouf Boucekkine & Jean-Pierre Laffargue, 2009. "On the distributional consequences of epidemics," Working Papers 2009_22, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
- BOUCEKKINE, Raouf & LAFFARGE, Jean-Pierre, . "On the distributional consequences of epidemics," CORE Discussion Papers RP 2204, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Marcus R. Keogh-Brown & Simon Wren-Lewis & W. John Edmunds & Philippe Beutels & Richard D. Smith, 2010.
"The possible macroeconomic impact on the UK of an influenza pandemic,"
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(11), pages 1345-1360.
- Simon Wren-Lewis & Marcus Keogh-Brown, 2009. "The possible macroeconomic impact on the UK of an influenza pandemic," Economics Series Working Papers 431, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Kiefer, Nicholas M., 1980. "Estimation of fixed effect models for time series of cross-sections with arbitrary intertemporal covariance," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 195-202, October.
- Hanson, Gordon H. & Slaughter, Matthew J., 2002. "Labor-market adjustment in open economies: Evidence from US states," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 3-29, June.
- Andrew K. Rose, 2000. "One money, one market: the effect of common currencies on trade," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 15(30), pages 7-46, 04.
- Aghion, Philippe & Howitt, Peter, 1992. "A Model of Growth Through Creative Destruction," Scholarly Articles 12490578, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Luis A. Rivera-Batiz & Paul M. Romer, 1990.
"Economic Integration and Endogenous Growth,"
NBER Working Papers
3528, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Richard E. Nelson, 2010. "Testing the Fetal Origins Hypothesis in a developing country: evidence from the 1918 Influenza Pandemic," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(10), pages 1181-1192.
- Thomas A. Garrett, 2008. "Pandemic economics: the 1918 influenza and its modern-day implications," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 74-94.
- Brainerd, Elizabeth & Siegler, Mark V, 2003. "The Economic Effects of the 1918 Influenza Epidemic," CEPR Discussion Papers 3791, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Hausman, Jerry & Kuersteiner, Guido, 2008.
"Difference in difference meets generalized least squares: Higher order properties of hypotheses tests,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 144(2), pages 371-391, June.
- Jerry Hausman & Guido Kuersteiner, 2005. "Difference in Difference Meets Generalized Least Squares: Higher Order Properties of Hypotheses Tests," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2005-010, Boston University - Department of Economics.
- Mamelund, Svenn-Erik, 2006. "A socially neutral disease? Individual social class, household wealth and mortality from Spanish influenza in two socially contrasting parishes in Kristiania 1918-19," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 62(4), pages 923-940, February.
- Sharon Maccini & Dean Yang, 2009.
"Under the Weather: Health, Schooling, and Economic Consequences of Early-Life Rainfall,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1006-26, June.
- Sharon L. Maccini & Dean Yang, 2008. "Under the Weather: Health, Schooling, and Economic Consequences of Early-Life Rainfall," NBER Working Papers 14031, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
- Helen Robbins, 1928. "A Comparison of the Effects of the Black Death on the Economic Organization of France and England," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 36, pages 447.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hhs:iuiwop:0911. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Elisabeth Gustafsson)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.