The possible macroeconomic impact on the UK of an influenza pandemic
Little is known about the possible impact of an influenza pandemic on a nation's economy. We applied the UK macroeconomic model 'COMPACT' to epidemiological data on previous UK influenza pandemics, and extrapolated a sensitivity analysis to cover more extreme disease scenarios. Analysis suggests that the economic impact of a repeat of the 1957 or 1968 pandemics, allowing for school closures, would be short-lived, constituting a loss of 3.35 and 0.58% of GDP in the first pandemic quarter and year, respectively. A more severe scenario (with more than 1% of the population dying) could yield impacts of 21 and 4.5%, respectively. The economic shockwave would be gravest when absenteeism (through school closures) increases beyond a few weeks, creating policy repercussions for influenza pandemic planning as the most severe economic impact is due to policies to contain the pandemic rather than the pandemic itself. Accounting for changes in consumption patterns made in an attempt to avoid infection worsens the potential impact. Our mild disease scenario then shows first quarter|first year reductions in GDP of 9.5|2.5%, compared with our severe scenario reductions of 29.5|6%. These results clearly indicate the significance of behavioural change over disease parameters. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Volume (Year): 19 (2010)
Issue (Month): 11 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/jhome/5749 |
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
- Jong-Wha Lee & Warwick J. McKibbin, 2003.
"Globalization and Disease: The Case of SARS,"
Departmental Working Papers
2003-16, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
- Keogh-Brown, Marcus Richard & Smith, Richard David, 2008. "The economic impact of SARS: How does the reality match the predictions?," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 110-120, October.
- Warwick McKibbin & Alexandra Sidorenko, 2006. "Global Macroeconomic Consequences of Pandemic Influenza," CAMA Working Papers 2006-26, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Darby, Julia & Ireland, Jonathan & Leith, Campbell & Wren-Lewis, Simon, 1998. "COMPACT: a rational expectations, intertemporal model of the United Kingdom economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 1-52, January.
- Lars Jonung & Werner Roeger, 2006. "The macroeconomic effects of a pandemic in Europe - A model-based assessment," European Economy - Economic Papers 251, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
- Wren-Lewis, Simon, et al, 1996. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Policy: Linking an Econometric Model with Theory," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(436), pages 543-59, May.
- Garratt, A. & Lee, K. & Pesaran, M. H. & Shin, Y., 1998.
"A Long-run Structural Macro-econometric Model of the UK,"
Cambridge Working Papers in Economics
9812, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Anthony Garratt & Kevin Lee & M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin, 2003. "A Long run structural macroeconometric model of the UK," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(487), pages 412-455, 04.
- A Garratt & K Lee & M Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin, 2004. "A long run structural macroeconometric model of the UK," ESE Discussion Papers 35, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
- Smith, Richard D. & Yago, Milton & Millar, Michael & Coast, Jo, 2005. "Assessing the macroeconomic impact of a healthcare problem: The application of computable general equilibrium analysis to antimicrobial resistance," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 1055-1075, November.
- Kenneth F. Wallis & Jan P. A. M. Jacobs, 2005. "Comparing SVARs and SEMs: two models of the UK economy," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 209-228.
- Werner B.F. Brouwer & Marc A. Koopmanschap, 2005. "The Friction-Cost Method: Replacement for Nothing and Leisure for Free?," PharmacoEconomics, Springer Healthcare | Adis, vol. 23(2), pages 105-111.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:hlthec:v:19:y:2010:i:11:p:1345-1360. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing)or (Christopher F. Baum)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.