The macroeconomic effects of a pandemic in Europe - A model-based assessment
This report estimates possible macroeconomic effects of a pandemic taking place in the EU in 2006, using a quarterly macroeconomic model. The macroeconomic costs of a pandemic, that is the cost in terms of production lost due to illness and death measured as reductions in GDP growth and/or declines in the level of GDP, are quantified in various pandemic scenarios. We focus on two sectors of the European economy that are expected to be particularly severely hit, tourism and trade. The results are compared with those obtained in similar studies. Our basic conclusion is that, although a pandemic would take a huge toll in human suffering, it would most likely not be a severe threat to the European macroeconomy.
|Date of creation:||Jun 2006|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Inter-institutional relations and communication Unit, B-1049 Brussels|
Fax: +32 2 298.08.23
Web page: http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/index_en.htm
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Forslid, Rikard, 2005.
"Can We Trust Private Firms as Suppliers of Vaccine for the Avian Influenza?,"
Research Papers in Economics
2005:2, Stockholm University, Department of Economics, revised 06 Feb 2006.
- Forslid, Rikard, 2005. "Can we Trust Private Firms as Suppliers of Vaccines for the Avian Influenza?," CEPR Discussion Papers 4980, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Brainerd, Elizabeth & Siegler, Mark V, 2003. "The Economic Effects of the 1918 Influenza Epidemic," CEPR Discussion Papers 3791, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Bell, Clive & Gersbach, Hans, 2004. "Growth and Epidemic Diseases," CEPR Discussion Papers 4800, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Clive Bell & Maureen Lewis, 2004. "The Economic Implications of Epidemics Old and New," World Economics, World Economics, Economic & Financial Publishing, 1 Ivory Square, Plantation Wharf, London, United Kingdom, SW11 3UE, vol. 5(4), pages 137-174, October.
- Clive Bell & Maureen Lewis, 2005. "The Economic Implications of Epidemics Old and New," Working Papers 54, Center for Global Development.
- Roeger, Werner & in 't Veld, Jan, 2004. "Some selected simulation experiments with the European commission's QUEST model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 785-832, September.
- Werner Röger & Jan in 't Veld, 2002. "Some selected simulation experiments with the European Commission's QUEST model," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 178, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
- Douglas Almond & Bhashkar Mazumder, 2005. "The 1918 Influenza Pandemic and Subsequent Health Outcomes: An Analysis of SIPP Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(2), pages 258-262, May.
- Alwyn Young, 2004. "The Gift of the Dying: The Tragedy of AIDS and the Welfare of Future African Generations," NBER Working Papers 10991, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Warwick McKibbin & Alexandra Sidorenko, 2006. "Global Macroeconomic Consequences of Pandemic Influenza," CAMA Working Papers 2006-26, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)