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The macroeconomic effects of a pandemic in Europe - A model-based assessment


  • Lars Jonung
  • Werner Roeger


This report estimates possible macroeconomic effects of a pandemic taking place in the EU in 2006, using a quarterly macroeconomic model. The macroeconomic costs of a pandemic, that is the cost in terms of production lost due to illness and death measured as reductions in GDP growth and/or declines in the level of GDP, are quantified in various pandemic scenarios. We focus on two sectors of the European economy that are expected to be particularly severely hit, tourism and trade. The results are compared with those obtained in similar studies. Our basic conclusion is that, although a pandemic would take a huge toll in human suffering, it would most likely not be a severe threat to the European macroeconomy.

Suggested Citation

  • Lars Jonung & Werner Roeger, 2006. "The macroeconomic effects of a pandemic in Europe - A model-based assessment," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 251, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  • Handle: RePEc:euf:ecopap:0251

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Clive Bell & Maureen Lewis, 2004. "The Economic Implications of Epidemics Old and New," World Economics, World Economics, 1 Ivory Square, Plantation Wharf, London, United Kingdom, SW11 3UE, vol. 5(4), pages 137-174, October.
    2. Roeger, Werner & in 't Veld, Jan, 2004. "Some selected simulation experiments with the European commission's QUEST model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 785-832, September.
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    4. Warwick McKibbin & Alexandra Sidorenko, 2006. "Global Macroeconomic Consequences of Pandemic Influenza," CAMA Working Papers 2006-26, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    5. Forslid, Rikard, 2005. "Can We Trust Private Firms as Suppliers of Vaccine for the Avian Influenza?," Research Papers in Economics 2005:2, Stockholm University, Department of Economics, revised 06 Feb 2006.
    6. Brainerd, Elizabeth & Siegler, Mark V, 2003. "The Economic Effects of the 1918 Influenza Epidemic," CEPR Discussion Papers 3791, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Bell, Clive & Gersbach, Hans, 2004. "Growth and Epidemic Diseases," CEPR Discussion Papers 4800, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Douglas Almond & Bhashkar Mazumder, 2005. "The 1918 Influenza Pandemic and Subsequent Health Outcomes: An Analysis of SIPP Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(2), pages 258-262, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Eunae Jung & Hyungun Sung, 2017. "The Influence of the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Outbreak on Online and Offline Markets for Retail Sales," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 9(3), pages 1-23, March.
    2. Nicolas R Blancher & François Haas & John Kiff & Oksana Khadarina & Paul S. Mills & Parmeshwar Ramlogan & William Lee & Yoon Sook Kim & Todd Groome & Shinobu Nakagawa, 2006. "The Limits of Market-Based Risk Transfer and Implications for Managing Systemic Risks," IMF Working Papers 06/217, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Marcus R. Keogh-Brown & Simon Wren-Lewis & W. John Edmunds & Philippe Beutels & Richard D. Smith, 2010. "The possible macroeconomic impact on the UK of an influenza pandemic," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(11), pages 1345-1360.
    4. Smith, Richard D. & Keogh-Brown, Marcus R. & Barnett, Tony, 2011. "Estimating the economic impact of pandemic influenza: An application of the computable general equilibrium model to the UK," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 235-244, July.


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