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Macroeconomic effects of COVID‐19: A mid‐term review

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  • Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul

Abstract

This article provides an interim assessment of the macroeconomic consequences of the COVID‐19 pandemic. Estimates suggest a median output loss of approximately 6.5% in 2020, a gap that is expected to narrow to around 4% of the pre‐pandemic trend by the end of 2021. There is, however, a high dispersion of economic losses across economies, reflecting varying exposures to the pandemic and societies' responses. High‐frequency indicators and epidemiological models provide some insight into the interactions between the pandemic evolution and societies' strategies for combating it, including the role of vaccination. The article draws lessons from experiences thus far and discusses challenges ahead.

Suggested Citation

  • Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul, 2021. "Macroeconomic effects of COVID‐19: A mid‐term review," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(4), pages 439-458, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:pacecr:v:26:y:2021:i:4:p:439-458
    DOI: 10.1111/1468-0106.12372
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    1. Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul, 2021. "Macroeconomic consequences of pandexit," BIS Working Papers 932, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Birindelli, Giuliana & Miazza, Aline & Paimanova, Viktoriia & Palea, Vera, 2023. "Just “blah blah blah”? Stock market expectations and reactions to COP26," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    3. Hosoya, Kei, 2023. "Impact of infectious disease pandemics on individual lifetime consumption: An endogenous time preference approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    4. Adina Criste & Iulia Lupu, 2022. "Features of the COVID-19 Crisis – Reflections of Economic and Financial Indicators," Ovidius University Annals, Economic Sciences Series, Ovidius University of Constantza, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 0(1), pages 215-223, September.
    5. Gagnon, Joseph E. & Kamin, Steven B. & Kearns, John, 2023. "The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on global GDP growth," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    6. Yugang He, 2022. "Home Production: Does It Matter for the Korean Macroeconomy during the COVID-19 Pandemic?," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-12, June.
    7. Barbara Cieślińska & Anna Janiszewska, 2022. "Demographic and Social Dimension of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Polish Cities: Excess Deaths and Residents’ Fears," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-24, July.

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    JEL classification:

    • E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

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