IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jmacro/v76y2023ics016407042300006x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Impact of infectious disease pandemics on individual lifetime consumption: An endogenous time preference approach

Author

Listed:
  • Hosoya, Kei

Abstract

This paper considers the impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on long-term individual lifetime consumption profiles. The framework for the analysis is a model that extends Strulik (2021) to include the government sector, where time preference is determined by individual health damage (deficit) distinct from normal aging. Thus, the health damage caused by COVID-19 changes the rate of time preference and consequently affects the Euler equation for consumption. Our theoretical contribution is the consistent incorporation of public health investment into the existing model to understand the effect of government measures against a pandemic. Numerical analysis based on this model is used to estimate changes in health status over time, trends in the rate of time preference, and individual lifetime consumption profiles, taking into account differences in age at the time of the pandemic and the nature of the government responses. Because the long-term negative economic impact would be enormous, we should avoid advocating for “living with COVID-19” without due consideration. The reopening of the economy must be accompanied by a commitment to the containment and elimination of infections with future novel coronaviruses.

Suggested Citation

  • Hosoya, Kei, 2023. "Impact of infectious disease pandemics on individual lifetime consumption: An endogenous time preference approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:76:y:2023:i:c:s016407042300006x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103506
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S016407042300006X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103506?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stokey, Nancy L & Rebelo, Sergio, 1995. "Growth Effects of Flat-Rate Taxes," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(3), pages 519-550, June.
    2. Carola Binder, 2020. "Coronavirus Fears and Macroeconomic Expectations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(4), pages 721-730, October.
    3. Daron Acemoglu & Victor Chernozhukov & Iván Werning & Michael D. Whinston, 2021. "Optimal Targeted Lockdowns in a Multigroup SIR Model," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 3(4), pages 487-502, December.
    4. Roozbei Hosseini & Karen Kopecky & Kai Zhao, 2022. "The Evolution of Health over the Life Cycle," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 45, pages 237-263, July.
    5. Carl-Johan Dalgaard & Holger Strulik, 2014. "Optimal Aging And Death: Understanding The Preston Curve," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 12(3), pages 672-701, June.
    6. Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul, 2021. "Macroeconomic effects of COVID‐19: A mid‐term review," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(4), pages 439-458, October.
    7. Meng, Qinglai, 2006. "Impatience and equilibrium indeterminacy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(12), pages 2671-2692, December.
    8. Strulik, Holger & Werner, Katharina, 2021. "Time-inconsistent health behavior and its impact on aging and longevity," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    9. Hosoya, Kei, 2019. "Importance of a victim-oriented recovery policy after major disasters," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 1-10.
    10. Ana Lucia Abeliansky & Holger Strulik, 2018. "How We Fall Apart: Similarities of Human Aging in 10 European Countries," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 55(1), pages 341-359, February.
    11. Agénor, Pierre-Richard, 2008. "Health and infrastructure in a model of endogenous growth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1407-1422, December.
    12. Pierre‐Richard Agénor & Devrim Yilmaz, 2013. "Aid Allocation, Growth And Welfare With Productive Public Goods," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(2), pages 103-127, March.
    13. Strulik, Holger & Trimborn, Timo, 2018. "Hyperbolic discounting can be good for your health," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 44-57.
    14. Glenn W. Harrison & Morten I. Lau & Melonie B. Williams, 2002. "Estimating Individual Discount Rates in Denmark: A Field Experiment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1606-1617, December.
    15. Strulik, Holger, 2021. "Intertemporal choice with health-dependent discounting," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 19-25.
    16. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1990. "Intertemporal dependence, impatience, and dynamics," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 45-75, August.
    17. Pierre‐Richard Agénor, 2011. "Schooling and Public Capital in a Model of Endogenous Growth," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 78(309), pages 108-132, January.
    18. Armin Falk & Anke Becker & Thomas Dohmen & Benjamin Enke & David B. Huffman & Uwe Sunde, 2017. "Global Evidence on Economic Preferences," NBER Working Papers 23943, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Evangelos V. Dioikitopoulos & Sarantis Kalyvitis, 2015. "Optimal Fiscal Policy with Endogenous Time Preference," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 17(6), pages 848-873, December.
    20. Armin Falk & Anke Becker & Thomas Dohmen & Benjamin Enke & David Huffman & Uwe Sunde, 2018. "Global Evidence on Economic Preferences," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 133(4), pages 1645-1692.
    21. Turnovsky, Stephen J., 2008. "The role of factor substitution in the theory of economic growth and income distribution: Two examples," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 604-629, June.
    22. Das, Mausumi, 2003. "Optimal growth with decreasing marginal impatience," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(10), pages 1881-1898, August.
    23. Barro, Robert J, 1990. "Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 103-126, October.
    24. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
    25. Strulik, Holger, 2019. "An economic theory of depression and its impact on health behavior and longevity," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 269-287.
    26. Herberholz, Chantal, 2020. "Risk attitude, time preference and health behaviours in the Bangkok Metropolitan Area," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    27. Agénor, Pierre-Richard, 2010. "A theory of infrastructure-led development," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 932-950, May.
    28. Grossman, Michael, 1972. "On the Concept of Health Capital and the Demand for Health," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 80(2), pages 223-255, March-Apr.
    29. Roozbei Hosseini & Karen Kopecky & Kai Zhao, 2022. "The Evolution of Health over the Life Cycle," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 45, pages 237-263, July.
    30. Robert E. Hall & Charles I. Jones & Peter J. Klenow, 2020. "Trading Off Consumption and COVID-19 Deaths," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 42(1), pages 1-14, June.
    31. Shane Frederick & George Loewenstein & Ted O'Donoghue, 2002. "Time Discounting and Time Preference: A Critical Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 40(2), pages 351-401, June.
    32. Nam, Eun-Young & Lee, Kiryoung & Jeon, Yoontae, 2021. "Macroeconomic uncertainty shocks and households’ consumption choice," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    33. Kelly, Mark, 2017. "Health capital accumulation, health insurance, and aggregate outcomes: A neoclassical approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 1-22.
    34. Epstein, Larry G & Hynes, J Allan, 1983. "The Rate of Time Preference and Dynamic Economic Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(4), pages 611-635, August.
    35. Palivos, Theodore & Wang, Ping & Zhang, Jianbo, 1997. "On the Existence of Balanced Growth Equilibrium," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(1), pages 205-224, February.
    36. Xavier Raurich, 2001. "Indeterminancy and Government Spending in a Two-Sector Model of Endogenous Growth," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 4(1), pages 210-229, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kei Hosoya, 2024. "Endogenous time preference and infrastructure-led growth with an unexpected numerical example," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 23(1), pages 3-32, January.
    2. Strulik, Holger, 2021. "Intertemporal choice with health-dependent discounting," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 19-25.
    3. Vella, Eugenia & Dioikitopoulos, Evangelos V. & Kalyvitis, Sarantis, 2015. "Green Spending Reforms, Growth, And Welfare With Endogenous Subjective Discounting," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(6), pages 1240-1260, September.
    4. Strulik, Holger, 2016. "Limited self-control and long-run growth," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 1-8.
    5. Holger Strulik & Volker Grossmann, 2022. "Life Cycle Economics with Infectious and Chronic Diseases," CESifo Working Paper Series 10141, CESifo.
    6. Kelly, Mark & Kuhn, Michael, 2022. "Congestion in a public health service: A macro approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    7. Ana Lucia Abeliansky & Holger Strulik, 2023. "Health and aging before and after retirement," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 36(4), pages 2825-2855, October.
    8. Ken-Ichi Hirose & Shinsuke Ikeda, 2015. "Decreasing Marginal Impatience and Capital Accumulation in a Two-Country World Economy," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 66(3), pages 474-507, July.
    9. Schumacher, Ingmar, 2011. "Endogenous discounting and the domain of the felicity function," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 574-581, January.
    10. Dragone, Davide & Strulik, Holger, 2020. "Negligible senescence: An economic life cycle model for the future," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 264-285.
    11. Strulik, Holger & Werner, Katharina, 2021. "Time-inconsistent health behavior and its impact on aging and longevity," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    12. Evangelos V. Dioikitopoulos & Sarantis Kalyvitis, 2015. "Optimal Fiscal Policy with Endogenous Time Preference," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 17(6), pages 848-873, December.
    13. Strulik, Holger, 2015. "Hyperbolic discounting and endogenous growth," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 131-134.
    14. ZHANG, Wei-Bin, 2013. "Habit Formation And Preference Change In A Twosector Growth Model With Elastic Labor Supply," Academica Science Journal, Economica Series, Dimitrie Cantemir University, Faculty of Economical Science, vol. 1(2), pages 3-20, May.
    15. Kawagishi, Taketo, 2014. "Investment for patience in an endogenous growth model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 508-515.
    16. Wei-Bin Zhang, 2013. "Dynamic Interactions among Growth, Environmental Change, Habit Formation, and Preference Change," The International Journal of Economic Behavior - IJEB, Faculty of Business and Administration, University of Bucharest, vol. 3(1), pages 3-25, December.
    17. Strulik, Holger, 2022. "Medical progress and life cycle choices," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 23(C).
    18. Howell Zee, 1997. "Endogenous Time Preference and Endogenous Growth," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(2), pages 1-20.
    19. Ingmar, SCHUMACHER, 2006. "On optimality, endogeneous discounting and wealth accumulation," Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) 2006058, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques.
    20. Strulik, Holger, 2022. "A health economic theory of occupational choice, aging, and longevity," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19 pandemic; Endogenous time preference; Increasing marginal impatience; Health damage; Individual lifetime consumption profile;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
    • E71 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on the Macro Economy
    • H51 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Health
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:76:y:2023:i:c:s016407042300006x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622617 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.