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Growth Effects of Flat-Rate Taxes

  • Stokey, Nancy L
  • Rebelo, Sergio

Recent estimates of the potential growth effects of tax reform vary wildly, ranging from zero to eight percentage points. Using an endogenous growth model, the authors assess which model features and parameter values are important for determining the quantitative impact of tax reform. The quantitative estimates in several recent papers are compared with each other and with some of the evidence from U.S. experience. The authors find that Robert Lucas's conclusion, that tax reform would have little or no impact on the U.S. growth rate, is theoretically robust and consistent with the evidence. Copyright 1995 by University of Chicago Press.

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File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/261993
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Article provided by University of Chicago Press in its journal Journal of Political Economy.

Volume (Year): 103 (1995)
Issue (Month): 3 (June)
Pages: 519-50

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Handle: RePEc:ucp:jpolec:v:103:y:1995:i:3:p:519-50
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.journals.uchicago.edu/JPE/

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  1. Robert G. King & Sergio Rebelo, 1990. "Public Policy and Economic Growth: Developing Neoclassical Implications," NBER Working Papers 3338, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Gary S. Becker, 1981. "A Treatise on the Family," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number beck81-1.
  3. John W. Kendrick, 1961. "Productivity Trends in the United States," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number kend61-1.
  4. Christiano, Lawrence J., 1988. "Why does inventory investment fluctuate so much?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 247-280.
  5. Jones, Larry E & Manuelli, Rodolfo E, 1990. "A Convex Model of Equilibrium Growth: Theory and Policy Implications," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 1008-38, October.
  6. Heckman, James J, 1976. "A Life-Cycle Model of Earnings, Learning, and Consumption," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(4), pages S11-44, August.
  7. Jones, Larry E & Manuelli, Rodolfo E & Rossi, Peter E, 1993. "Optimal Taxation in Models of Endogenous Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(3), pages 485-517, June.
  8. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1990. "Supply-Side Economics: An Analytical Review," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 42(2), pages 293-316, April.
  9. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
  10. Haley, William J, 1976. "Estimation of the Earnings Profile from Optimal Human Capital Accumulation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 44(6), pages 1223-38, November.
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