IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/inrvec/v72y2025i1d10.1007_s12232-025-00488-9.html

Slow consumption recovery after the pandemic: perspective from a time preference approach

Author

Listed:
  • Kei Hosoya

    (Kokugakuin University)

Abstract

The emergency phase of the COVID-19 pandemic ended in the spring of 2023, but the pace of economic recovery differs depending on the country. In particular, the recovery of consumption has varied widely, with many countries experiencing contraction or stagnation. This paper investigates the cause of this peculiar phenomenon as a serious impact on individual preferences and develops an analysis that serves as a first step toward clarifying and understanding the current macroeconomic situation by using an existing dynamic model with endogenous time preferences. Although we assume a case in which the long-run equilibrium is uniquely determined, it turns out that situations can arise where the path toward the equilibrium is indeterminate. An endogenously determined time preference rate, which depends on aggregate consumption and public health levels, is one source of such indeterminacy. We apply the various equilibrium converging paths introduced by such indeterminacy to the interpretation of the macroeconomic adjustment process during the recent COVID-19 pandemic.

Suggested Citation

  • Kei Hosoya, 2025. "Slow consumption recovery after the pandemic: perspective from a time preference approach," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 72(1), pages 1-25, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:inrvec:v:72:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1007_s12232-025-00488-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s12232-025-00488-9
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s12232-025-00488-9
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s12232-025-00488-9?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Avinash Dixit & Peter Hammond & Michael Hoel, 1980. "On Hartwick's Rule for Regular Maximin Paths of Capital Accumulation and Resource Depletion," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 47(3), pages 551-556.
    2. Chugh, Sanjay K., 2008. "Relative consumption benchmarks," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 100(2), pages 204-207, August.
    3. Juan‐Pedro Gómez & Richard Priestley & Fernando Zapatero, 2009. "Implications of Keeping‐Up‐with‐the‐Joneses Behavior for the Equilibrium Cross Section of Stock Returns: International Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(6), pages 2703-2737, December.
    4. Benhabib Jess & Farmer Roger E. A., 1994. "Indeterminacy and Increasing Returns," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 19-41, June.
    5. Kazuo Mino, 2017. "Growth and Business Cycles with Equilibrium Indeterminacy," Advances in Japanese Business and Economics, Springer, number 978-4-431-55609-1, December.
    6. Agénor, Pierre-Richard, 2008. "Health and infrastructure in a model of endogenous growth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1407-1422, December.
    7. Lisa Cameron & Manisha Shah, 2015. "Risk-Taking Behavior in the Wake of Natural Disasters," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 50(2), pages 484-515.
    8. Robert J. Barro, 2006. "Rare Disasters and Asset Markets in the Twentieth Century," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 121(3), pages 823-866.
    9. Akesaka, Mika, 2019. "Change in time preferences: Evidence from the Great East Japan Earthquake," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 239-245.
    10. Strulik, Holger, 2012. "Patience and prosperity," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 147(1), pages 336-352.
    11. repec:bla:econom:v:70:y:2003:i:280:p:639-653 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Epstein, Larry G & Hynes, J Allan, 1983. "The Rate of Time Preference and Dynamic Economic Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(4), pages 611-635, August.
    13. Evangelos V. Dioikitopoulos & Sarantis Kalyvitis, 2015. "Optimal Fiscal Policy with Endogenous Time Preference," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 17(6), pages 848-873, December.
    14. Gali, Jordi, 1994. "Keeping Up with the Joneses: Consumption Externalities, Portfolio Choice, and Asset Prices," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 26(1), pages 1-8, February.
    15. Agénor, Pierre-Richard, 2010. "A theory of infrastructure-led development," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 932-950, May.
    16. McKibbin, Warwick & Fernando, Roshen, 2023. "The global economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    17. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kei Hosoya, 2024. "Endogenous time preference and infrastructure-led growth with an unexpected numerical example," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 23(1), pages 3-32, January.
    2. Hosoya, Kei, 2023. "Impact of infectious disease pandemics on individual lifetime consumption: An endogenous time preference approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    3. Rangan Gupta & Lardo Stander & Andrea Vaona, 2023. "Openness and growth: Is the relationship non‐linear?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(3), pages 3071-3099, July.
    4. Strulik, Holger, 2016. "Limited self-control and long-run growth," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 1-8.
    5. Evangelos V. Dioikitopoulos & Sarantis Kalyvitis, 2015. "Optimal Fiscal Policy with Endogenous Time Preference," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 17(6), pages 848-873, December.
    6. Kazuo Mino, 2017. "Sunspot-Driven Business Cycles: An Overview," KIER Working Papers 973, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
    7. Antoci, Angelo & Borghesi, Simone & Galeotti, Marcello & Russu, Paolo, 2022. "Maladaptation to environmental degradation and the interplay between negative and positive externalities," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    8. Liutang Gong & Wei Wang, 2020. "Self‐fulfilling patience," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(4), pages 336-357, December.
    9. Åsa Johansson, 2016. "Public Finance, Economic Growth and Inequality: A Survey of the Evidence," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1346, OECD Publishing.
    10. Keiichi Morimoto & Shiba Suzuki, 2022. "Ambiguity in a pandemic recession, asset prices, and lockdown policy," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 24(5), pages 1039-1070, October.
    11. Benhabib, Jess & Perli, Roberto & Xie, Danyang, 1994. "Monopolistic competition, indeterminacy and growth," MPRA Paper 37411, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 1994.
    12. Greiner, Alfred & Semmler, Willi, 2001. "Externalities of investment and endogenous growth: theory and time series evidence," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 295-310, September.
    13. Gerhard Sorger, 2000. "Income and wealth distribution in a simple model of growth," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 16(1), pages 23-42.
    14. Posch, Olaf & Trimborn, Timo, 2013. "Numerical solution of dynamic equilibrium models under Poisson uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 2602-2622.
    15. Ben Fine, 1998. "Endogenous Growth Theory: A Critical Assessment," Working Papers 80, Department of Economics, SOAS University of London, UK.
    16. repec:ocp:rpaper:pp-16/01 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Sanso, Marcos & Aisa, Rosa M., 2006. "Endogenous longevity, biological deterioration and economic growth," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 555-578, May.
    18. Takashi Hayashi, 2020. "Investment in time preference and long-run distribution," The Japanese Economic Review, Springer, vol. 71(2), pages 171-190, April.
    19. Alban Verchère, 2011. "Le développement durable en question : analyses économiques autour d’un improbable compromis entre acceptions optimiste et pessimiste du rapport de l’Homme à la Nature," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 87(3), pages 337-403.
    20. Evangelos V. Dioikitopoulos & Stephen J. Turnovsky & Ronald Wendner, 2020. "Dynamic Status Effects, Savings, And Income Inequality," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 61(1), pages 351-382, February.
    21. Tim Buyse & Freddy Heylen & Renaat Van de Kerckhove, 2013. "Pension reform, employment by age, and long-run growth," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 26(2), pages 769-809, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E71 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on the Macro Economy
    • H51 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Health
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:inrvec:v:72:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1007_s12232-025-00488-9. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.