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Numerical Solution of Dynamic Equilibrium Models under Poisson Uncertainty

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  • Olaf Posch
  • Timo Trimborn

Abstract

We propose a simple and powerful numerical algorithm to compute the transition process in continuous-time dynamic equilibrium models with rare events. In this paper we transform the dynamic system of stochastic differential equations into a system of functional differential equations of the retarded type. We apply the Waveform Relaxation algorithm, i.e., we provide a guess of the policy function and solve the resulting system of (deterministic) ordinary differential equations by standard techniques. For parametric restrictions, analytical solutions to the stochastic growth model and a novel solution to Lucas' endogenous growth model under Poisson uncertainty are used to compute the exact numerical error. We show how (potential) catastrophic events such as rare natural disasters substantially affect the economic decisions of households.

Suggested Citation

  • Olaf Posch & Timo Trimborn, 2011. "Numerical Solution of Dynamic Equilibrium Models under Poisson Uncertainty," CESifo Working Paper Series 3431, CESifo.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_3431
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    Cited by:

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    2. Holger Strulik & Timo Trimborn, 2019. "Natural Disasters and Macroeconomic Performance," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 72(4), pages 1069-1098, April.
    3. Santanu Chatterjee & Olaf Posch & Dennis Wesselbaum, 2017. "Delays in Public Goods," Working Papers 1702, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2017.
    4. Posch, Olaf, 2011. "Risk premia in general equilibrium," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(9), pages 1557-1576, September.
    5. Hiroaki Ishiwata & Muneta Yokomatsu, 2018. "Dynamic Stochastic Macroeconomic Model of Disaster Risk Reduction Investment in Developing Countries," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(11), pages 2424-2440, November.
    6. Olaf Posch, 2018. "Resurrecting the New-Keynesian Model: (Un)conventional Policy and the Taylor Rule," CESifo Working Paper Series 6925, CESifo.
    7. Yoji Kunimitsu, 2018. "Effects of restoration measures from the east Japan earthquake in the Iwate coastal area: application of a DSGE model," Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 2(2), pages 317-335, August.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    continuous-time DSGE; Poisson uncertainty; waveform relaxation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models

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