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Structural estimation of jump-diffusion processes in macroeconomics

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  • Olaf Posch

    (School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus, Denmark and CREATES)

Abstract

Understanding the process of economic growth involves comparing competing theoretical models and evaluating their empirical relevance. Our approach is to take the neoclassical stochastic growth model directly to the data and make inferences about the model parameters of interest. In this paper, output follows a jump-diffusion process. By imposing parameter restrictions we derive two solutions in explicit form. Based on them, we obtain transition densities in closed form and employ maximum likelihood techniques to estimate the model parameters. In extensive Monte Carlo simulations we demonstrate that population parameters of the underlying data generating process can be recovered. We find empirical evidence for jumps in monthly and quarterly data on industrial production for the UK, the US, Germany, and the euro area (Euro12).

Suggested Citation

  • Olaf Posch, 2007. "Structural estimation of jump-diffusion processes in macroeconomics," CREATES Research Papers 2007-23, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  • Handle: RePEc:aah:create:2007-23
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    Cited by:

    1. Parra-Alvarez, Juan Carlos, 2018. "A Comparison Of Numerical Methods For The Solution Of Continuous-Time Dsge Models," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(6), pages 1555-1583, September.
    2. Posch, Olaf, 2011. "Explaining output volatility: The case of taxation," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(11), pages 1589-1606.
    3. Posch, Olaf & Trimborn, Timo, 2013. "Numerical solution of dynamic equilibrium models under Poisson uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 2602-2622.
    4. Wälde, Klaus, 2011. "Production technologies in stochastic continuous time models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 616-622, April.
    5. Olaf Posch & Andreas Schrimpf, 2012. "Risk of Rare Disasters, Euler Equation Errors and the Performance of the C-CAPM," CREATES Research Papers 2012-32, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    6. Ascari, Guido & Fagiolo, Giorgio & Roventini, Andrea, 2015. "Fat-Tail Distributions And Business-Cycle Models," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(2), pages 465-476, March.
    7. Christensen, Bent Jesper & Posch, Olaf & van der Wel, Michel, 2016. "Estimating dynamic equilibrium models using mixed frequency macro and financial data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 194(1), pages 116-137.
    8. Olaf Posch & Timo Trimborn, 2010. "Numerical solution of continuous-time DSGE models under Poisson uncertainty," Economics Working Papers 2010-08, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    9. Olaf POSCH & Klaus WALDE, 2009. "On the non-causal link between volatility and growth," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2009025, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    10. Posch, Olaf, 2011. "Risk premia in general equilibrium," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(9), pages 1557-1576, September.
    11. Olaf Posch & Klaus Wälde, 2011. "On the link between volatility and growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 285-308, December.
    12. Robert Feicht & Wolfgang Stummer, 2010. "Complete Closed-form Solution to a Stochastic Growth Model and Corresponding Speed of Economic Recovery preliminary," DEGIT Conference Papers c015_041, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
    13. Motoh Tsujimura & Hidekazu Yoshioka, 2023. "A robust consumption model when the intensity of technological progress is ambiguous," Mathematics and Financial Economics, Springer, volume 17, number 2, October.
    14. Md. Azizul Baten & Anton Abdulbasah Kamil, 2013. "Optimal Consumption in a Stochastic Ramsey Model with Cobb-Douglas Production Function," International Journal of Mathematics and Mathematical Sciences, Hindawi, vol. 2013, pages 1-8, March.
    15. Guerrini, Luca, 2010. "A closed-form solution to the Ramsey model with logistic population growth," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 1178-1182, September.
    16. Christian Bayer & Klaus Waelde, 2011. "Existence, Uniqueness and Stability of Invariant Distributions in Continuous-Time Stochastic Models," Working Papers 1111, Gutenberg School of Management and Economics, Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz, revised 21 Jul 2011.

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    Keywords

    Jump-diffusion estimation; Stochastic growth; Closed form solutions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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