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Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Generalized Ito Processes with Discretely Sampled Data

  • Andrew W. Lo

In this paper, it is shown that risk aversion plays a critical role in the determination of the equilibrium stock prices and their variability in a one-asset pure exchange economy. Specifically, it is argued that the variance of equilibrium stock prices is a strictly increasing convex function of the Arrow-Pratt measure of relative risk aversion, g, if g is greater than one. Furthermore, it is shown that the inequality underlying variance bounds tests can be reversed in our model with risk aversion. Therefore, it is concluded that the high volatility of stock prices relative to dividends may imply a rejection of risk neutrality rather than a failure of stock market efficiency.

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Paper provided by Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research in its series Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers with number 15-86.

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Handle: RePEc:fth:pennfi:15-86
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  1. Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "An Intertemporal General Equilibrium Model of Asset Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 363-84, March.
  2. Pierre Perron & Robert J. Shiller, 1984. "Testing the Random Walk Hypothesis: Power Versus Frequency of Observation," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 732, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  3. Marsh, Terry A & Rosenfeld, Eric R, 1983. " Stochastic Processes for Interest Rates and Equilibrium Bond Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(2), pages 635-46, May.
  4. Sanford J. Grossman & Angelo Melino & Robert J. Shiller, 1985. "Estimating the Continuous Time Consumption Based Asset Pricing Model," NBER Working Papers 1643, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Harrison, J Michael & Pitbladdo, Richard & Schaefer, Stephen M, 1984. "Continuous Price Processes in Frictionless Markets Have Infinite Variation," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 57(3), pages 353-65, July.
  6. Sims, Christopher A, 1971. "Discrete Approximations to Continuous Time Distributed Lags in Econometrics," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 39(3), pages 545-63, May.
  7. Phillips, P C B, 1972. "The Structural Estimation of a Stochastic Differential Equation System," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 40(6), pages 1021-41, November.
  8. Ball, Clifford A & Torous, Walter N, 1985. " On Jumps in Common Stock Prices and Their Impact on Call Option Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(1), pages 155-73, March.
  9. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June.
  10. Abel, Andrew B, 1983. "Optimal Investment under Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 228-33, March.
  11. Harvey, A. C. & Stock, James H., 1985. "The Estimation of Higher-Order Continuous Time Autoregressive Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 1(01), pages 97-117, April.
  12. Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J. Sargent, 1982. "Formulating and estimating continuous time rational expectations models," Staff Report 75, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
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