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Explaining output volatility: The case of taxation

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  • Posch, Olaf

Abstract

This paper presents strong empirical evidence that the observed heterogeneity of output volatility across countries and over time is partly endogenous. In particular, based on a closed-form solution we obtain a (long-run) equilibrium relationship between taxes and output volatility in the stochastic neoclassical growth model by showing that asymptotically the variance of output growth rates is affected by the level of taxes, without affecting the mean. We estimate the tax semi-elasticities on output volatility and provide convincing empirical evidence that taxes are important to understand differences in output volatility among OECD countries.

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  • Posch, Olaf, 2011. "Explaining output volatility: The case of taxation," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(11), pages 1589-1606.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:pubeco:v:95:y:2011:i:11:p:1589-1606
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2011.05.009
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    Cited by:

    1. Spiliopoulos, Leonidas, 2010. "The determinants of macroeconomic volatility: A Bayesian model averaging approach," MPRA Paper 26832, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Catalina Granda Carvajal, 2015. "Informality and macroeconomic volatility: do credit constraints matter?," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 42(6), pages 1095-1111, November.
    3. Davide fiaschi & Lisa Gianmoena & Angela Parenti, 2013. "The Determinants of Growth Rate Volatility in European Regions," Discussion Papers 2013/170, Dipartimento di Economia e Management (DEM), University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.
    4. Yu-Fu Chen & Michael Funke, 2010. "Booms, Recessions And Financial Turmoil: A Fresh Look At Investment Decisions Under Cyclical Uncertainty," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 57(s1), pages 290-317, July.
    5. Posch, Olaf, 2009. "Structural estimation of jump-diffusion processes in macroeconomics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 153(2), pages 196-210, December.
    6. Marattin, Luigi & Marzo, Massimiliano & Zagaglia, Paolo, 2013. "Distortionary tax instruments and implementable monetary policy," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 219-243.
    7. Robert Feicht & Wolfgang Stummer, 2010. "Complete Closed-form Solution to a Stochastic Growth Model and Corresponding Speed of Economic Recovery preliminary," DEGIT Conference Papers c015_041, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
    8. Olaf, POSCH & Klaus, WAELDE, 2005. "Natural volatility, welfare and taxation," Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) 2005009, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques.
    9. Checherita-Westphal, Cristina & Attinasi, Maria Grazia & Rieth, Malte, 2011. "Labour tax progressivity and output volatility: evidence from OECD countries," Working Paper Series 1380, European Central Bank.
    10. Andrey LAUNOV & Olaf POSCH & Klaus WÄLDE, 2012. "On the estimation of the volatility-growth link," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 2012009, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    11. Olaf Posch & Klaus Wälde, 2009. "On the non-causal link between volatility and growth," Economics Working Papers 2009-10, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    12. Veraart, Almut E.D., 2010. "Inference For The Jump Part Of Quadratic Variation Of Itô Semimartingales," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(02), pages 331-368, April.
    13. repec:eee:eecrev:v:96:y:2017:i:c:p:18-37 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Olaf Posch & Klaus Wälde, 2011. "On the link between volatility and growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 285-308, December.
    15. Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu & Nicolae Bogdan Ianc, 2016. "Fiscal Policy, Fdi And Macroeconomic Stabilization," Review of Economic and Business Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 18, pages 131-146, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Macroeconomic volatility; Tax effects; Continuous-time DSGE models;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • H31 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Household

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