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On the non-causal link between volatility and growth

Author

Listed:
  • Olaf POSCH

    (Aarhus University and CREATES, CESifo)

  • Klaus WALDE

    (University of Mainz, CESifo, and UCL Louvain la Neuve)

Abstract

A model highlighting the endogeneity of both volatility and growth is presented. Volatility and growth are therefore correlated but there is no causal link from volatility to growth. This joint endogeneity is illustrated by working out the effects through which economies with different tax levels differ both in their volatility and growth. Using a continuous-time DSGE model with plausible parametric restrictions, we obtain closedform measures of macro volatility based on cyclical components and output growth rates. Given our results, empirical volatility-growth analysis should include controls in the conditional variance equation. Otherwise an omitted variable bias is likely.

Suggested Citation

  • Olaf POSCH & Klaus WALDE, 2009. "On the non-causal link between volatility and growth," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2009025, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    • Handle: RePEc:ctl:louvir:2009025
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    Cited by:

    1. Robert Feicht & Wolfgang Stummer, 2010. "Complete Closed-form Solution to a Stochastic Growth Model and Corresponding Speed of Economic Recovery preliminary," DEGIT Conference Papers c015_041, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
    2. Mickaël Clévenot & Marie Silvère Mbome, 2014. "Reassessing Vulnerability to Macroeconomic Volatility: a nonstationary panel approach," Working Papers hal-00951544, HAL.
    3. Christian Bayer & Klaus Waelde, 2011. "Existence, Uniqueness and Stability of Invariant Distributions in Continuous-Time Stochastic Models," Working Papers 1111, Gutenberg School of Management and Economics, Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz, revised 21 Jul 2011.
    4. repec:hal:cepnwp:hal-00951544 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Posch, Olaf, 2011. "Explaining output volatility: The case of taxation," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(11), pages 1589-1606.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H3 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents
    • C65 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Miscellaneous Mathematical Tools

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