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Explaining output volatility: The case of taxation

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  • Olaf Posch

    () (School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus, Denmark and CREATES)

Abstract

This paper studies the effects of taxation on output volatility in OECD countries to shed light on the sources of observed heterogeneity over time and across countries. To this end, we derive tax effects on macro aggregates in a stochastic neoclassical model. As a result, taxes are shown to affect the second moment of output growth rates without (long-run) effects on the first moment. Taking the model to the data, we exploit observed heterogeneity patterns to estimate effects of tax rates on macro volatility using panel estimation, explicitly modeling the unobserved variance process. We find a strong empirical link between effective tax rates and output volatility, with some evidence of a cointegrating relationship. In accordance with theory, taxes on labor income and corporate income empirically are found to be negatively related to volatility of macro aggregates whereas the capital tax ratio has positive effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Olaf Posch, 2008. "Explaining output volatility: The case of taxation," CREATES Research Papers 2008-04, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  • Handle: RePEc:aah:create:2008-04
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    Cited by:

    1. Olaf, POSCH & Klaus, WAELDE, 2005. "Natural volatility, welfare and taxation," Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) 2005009, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques.
    2. Marattin, Luigi & Marzo, Massimiliano & Zagaglia, Paolo, 2013. "Distortionary tax instruments and implementable monetary policy," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, pages 219-243.
    3. Catalina Granda Carvajal, 2015. "Informality and macroeconomic volatility: do credit constraints matter?," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 42(6), pages 1095-1111, November.
    4. Andrey LAUNOV & Olaf POSCH & Klaus WÄLDE, 2012. "On the estimation of the volatility-growth link," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 2012009, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    5. Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu & Nicolae Bogdan Ianc, 2016. "Fiscal Policy, Fdi And Macroeconomic Stabilization," Review of Economic and Business Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 18, pages 131-146, December.
    6. Spiliopoulos, Leonidas, 2010. "The determinants of macroeconomic volatility: A Bayesian model averaging approach," MPRA Paper 26832, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Yu-Fu Chen & Michael Funke, 2010. "Booms, Recessions And Financial Turmoil: A Fresh Look At Investment Decisions Under Cyclical Uncertainty," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, pages 290-317.
    8. Posch, Olaf, 2009. "Structural estimation of jump-diffusion processes in macroeconomics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 153(2), pages 196-210, December.
    9. Olaf Posch & Klaus Wälde, 2011. "On the link between volatility and growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 285-308, December.
    10. Pedro Gil, 2013. "Animal spirits and the composition of innovation in a lab-equipment R&D model with transition," Journal of Economics, Springer, pages 1-33.
    11. Veraart, Almut E.D., 2010. "Inference For The Jump Part Of Quadratic Variation Of Itô Semimartingales," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, pages 331-368.
    12. repec:eee:eecrev:v:96:y:2017:i:c:p:18-37 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Davide fiaschi & Lisa Gianmoena & Angela Parenti, 2013. "The Determinants of Growth Rate Volatility in European Regions," Discussion Papers 2013/170, Dipartimento di Economia e Management (DEM), University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.
    14. Olaf POSCH & Klaus WALDE, 2009. "On the non-causal link between volatility and growth," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 2009025, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    15. Checherita-Westphal, Cristina & Attinasi, Maria Grazia & Rieth, Malte, 2011. "Labour tax progressivity and output volatility: evidence from OECD countries," Working Paper Series 1380, European Central Bank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Macroeconomic volatility; Tax effects; Big moderation;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy

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