IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Explaining output volatility: The case of taxation

  • Olaf Posch

    ()

    (School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus, Denmark and CREATES)

This paper studies the effects of taxation on output volatility in OECD countries to shed light on the sources of observed heterogeneity over time and across countries. To this end, we derive tax effects on macro aggregates in a stochastic neoclassical model. As a result, taxes are shown to affect the second moment of output growth rates without (long-run) effects on the first moment. Taking the model to the data, we exploit observed heterogeneity patterns to estimate effects of tax rates on macro volatility using panel estimation, explicitly modeling the unobserved variance process. We find a strong empirical link between effective tax rates and output volatility, with some evidence of a cointegrating relationship. In accordance with theory, taxes on labor income and corporate income empirically are found to be negatively related to volatility of macro aggregates whereas the capital tax ratio has positive effects.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: ftp://ftp.econ.au.dk/creates/rp/08/rp08_04.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University in its series CREATES Research Papers with number 2008-04.

as
in new window

Length: 73
Date of creation: 18 Jan 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:aah:create:2008-04
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.econ.au.dk/afn/

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Denizer, Cevdet & Iyigun, Murat F. & Owen, Ann L., 2000. "Finance and macroeconomic volatility," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2487, The World Bank.
  2. Ramey, Garey & Ramey, Valerie A, 1995. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link between Volatility and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1138-51, December.
  3. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2003. "Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2002, Volume 17, pages 159-230 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Florin Bilbiie & G. Mueller & A. Meier, 2006. "What Accounts for the Change in U.S Fiscal Policy Transmission ?," Working Papers hal-00515666, HAL.
  5. Kiminori Matsuyama, 1996. "Growing Through Cycles," Discussion Papers 1203, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  6. Danyang Xie, 2002. "Divergence in Economic Performance: Transitional Dynamics with Multiple Equilibria," GE, Growth, Math methods 0210002, EconWPA.
  7. Smith William T, 2007. "Inspecting the Mechanism Exactly: A Closed-form Solution to a Stochastic Growth Model," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-33, August.
  8. repec:dgr:rugsom:04e05 is not listed on IDEAS
  9. Margaret M. McConnell & Gabriel Perez Quiros, 1998. "Output fluctuations in the United States: what has changed since the early 1980s?," Staff Reports 41, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  10. Henry Siu & Nir Jaimovich, 2007. "The Young, the Old, and the Restless: Demographics and Business Cycle Volatility," 2007 Meeting Papers 521, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  11. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2003. "Understanding Changes in International Business Cycle Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 9859, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Stephen G Cecchetti & Alfonso Flores-Lagunes & Stefan Krause, 2005. "Assessing the Sources of Changes in the Volatility of Real Growth," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Christopher Kent & David Norman (ed.), The Changing Nature of the Business Cycle Reserve Bank of Australia.
  13. Greenwood, J. & Huffman, G., 1991. "Tax Analysis in A Real Business Cycle Model: On Measuring Harberger Triangles and Okun Gaps," UWO Department of Economics Working Papers 9103, University of Western Ontario, Department of Economics.
  14. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1999. "Forecasting inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 293-335, October.
  15. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
  16. Pedroni, Peter, 2004. "Panel Cointegration: Asymptotic And Finite Sample Properties Of Pooled Time Series Tests With An Application To The Ppp Hypothesis," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(03), pages 597-625, June.
  17. Merton, Robert C., 1973. "An asymptotic theory of growth under uncertainty," Working papers 673-73., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
  18. Patrick Francois & Huw Lloyd-Ellis, 2003. "Animal Spirits Through Creative Destruction," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(3), pages 530-550, June.
  19. Kevin J. Stiroh, 2009. "Volatility Accounting: A Production Perspective on Increased Economic Stability," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 7(4), pages 671-696, 06.
  20. Laurence Ball, 1990. "Why Does High Inflation Raise Inflation Uncertainty?," NBER Working Papers 3224, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. Giorgio Primiceri & Alejandro Justiniano, 2006. "The Time Varying Volatility of Macroeconomic Fluctuations," 2006 Meeting Papers 353, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  22. Posch, Olaf, 2009. "Structural estimation of jump-diffusion processes in macroeconomics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 153(2), pages 196-210, December.
  23. Chang-Jin Kim & Charles R. Nelson, 1999. "Has The U.S. Economy Become More Stable? A Bayesian Approach Based On A Markov-Switching Model Of The Business Cycle," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 608-616, November.
  24. Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson & James Robinson & Yunyong Thaicharoen, 2002. "Institutional Causes, Macroeconomic Symptoms: Volatility, Crises and Growth," NBER Working Papers 9124, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  25. Boucekkine Raouf & Ruiz Tamarit Ramon, 2004. "Imbalance Effects in the Lucas Model: an Analytical Exploration," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 1-19, December.
  26. V.V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen McGrattan, 2004. "Business Cycle Accounting," NBER Working Papers 10351, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  27. Lensink, Robert & Scholtens, Bert, 2004. "Financial development and the transmission of monetary shocks," Research Report 04E05, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
  28. Klaus Wälde, 2005. "Endogenous Growth Cycles," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 46(3), pages 867-894, 08.
  29. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2002. "Solving Dynamic General Equilibrium Models Using a Second-Order Approximation to the Policy Function," NBER Technical Working Papers 0282, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  30. Brock, William A. & Mirman, Leonard J., 1972. "Optimal economic growth and uncertainty: The discounted case," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 479-513, June.
  31. Mendoza, Enrique G. & Razin, Assaf & Tesar, Linda L., 1994. "Effective tax rates in macroeconomics: Cross-country estimates of tax rates on factor incomes and consumption," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 297-323, December.
  32. Wälde, Klaus, 2011. "Production technologies in stochastic continuous time models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 616-622, April.
  33. Olaf Posch & Klaus Wälde, 2009. "On the non-causal link between volatility and growth," Economics Working Papers 2009-10, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  34. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November.
  35. Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Rubio-Ramírez, Juan Francisco, 2006. "Estimating Macroeconomic Models: A Likelihood Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 5513, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  36. Bun M.J.G. & Carree M.A., 2002. "Bias-corrected estimation in dynamic panel data models," Research Memorandum 025, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
  37. Jean Jacod & Yingying Li & Per A. Mykland & Mark Podolskij & Mathias Vetter, 2007. "Microstructure Noise in the Continuous Case: The Pre-Averaging Approach - JLMPV-9," CREATES Research Papers 2007-43, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  38. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-70, March.
  39. Fabio Canova, 2004. "What explains the Great Moderation in the US? A structural analysis," Economics Working Papers 919, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Dec 2007.
  40. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
  41. Alan J. Auerbach & Joel Slemrod, 1997. "The Economic Effects of the Tax Reform Act of 1986," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(2), pages 589-632, June.
  42. Xie, Danyang, 1991. "Increasing Returns and Increasing Rates of Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 429-35, April.
  43. Patrick Francois & Huw Lloyd-Ellis, 2008. "Implementation Cycles, Investment, And Growth," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 49(3), pages 901-942, 08.
  44. Long, John B, Jr & Plosser, Charles I, 1983. "Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(1), pages 39-69, February.
  45. Chang, Fwu-Ranq, 1988. "The Inverse Optimal Problem: A Dynamic Programming Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(1), pages 147-72, January.
  46. Brock, William A & Turnovsky, Stephen J, 1981. "The Analysis of Macroeconomic Policies in Perfect Foresight Equilibrium," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 22(1), pages 179-209, February.
  47. Olivier Blanchard & John Simon, 2001. "The Long and Large Decline in U.S. Output Volatility," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 32(1), pages 135-174.
  48. Danthine, Jean-Pierre & Donaldson, John B., 1985. "A note on the effects of capital income taxation on the dynamics of a competitive economy," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 255-265, November.
  49. Bental, Benjamin & Peled, Dan, 1996. "The Accumulation of Wealth and the Cyclical Generation of New Technologies: A Search Theoretic Approach," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 37(3), pages 687-718, August.
  50. Banerjee, Anindya, 1999. " Panel Data Unit Roots and Cointegration: An Overview," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 607-29, Special I.
  51. Stephen J. Turnovsky, 2000. "Methods of Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262201232, March.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aah:create:2008-04. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.