IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Natural volatility, welfare and taxation

  • Posch, Olaf
  • Wälde, Klaus

Cyclical components are analytically computed in a theoretical model of stochastic endogenous fluctuations and growth. Volatility is shown to depend on the speed of convergence of the cyclical component, the expected length of a cycle and on the altitude of the slump. Taxes affect these channels and can therefore explain cross-country differences and breaks over time in volatility. With exogenous sources of fluctuations, a special case of our model, decentralized factor allocation is efficient. With endogenous fluctuations and growth, decentralized factor allocation is inefficient and (time-invariant) taxes can (de-) stabilize the economy. No unambiguous link exists between volatility and welfare.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: https://econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/22351/1/wep57.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by University of Würzburg, Chair for Monetary Policy and International Economics in its series W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers with number 57.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:zbw:wuewep:57
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Sanderring 2, D-97070 Würzburg

Phone: (0931) 31-2901
Fax: (0931) 31-2101
Web page: http://www.vwl.uni-wuerzburg.de/en/no_cache/lehrstuehle/vwl1/home/
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Francois, P. & Roberts, J., 2001. "Contracting Productivity Growth," Discussion Paper 2001-35, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  2. Gadi Barlevy, 2004. "The Cost of Business Cycles Under Endogenous Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 964-990, September.
  3. Robert G. King & Charles I. Plosser & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1991. "Stochastic trends and economic fluctuations," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 91-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  4. Patrick J. Kehoe & Fabrizio Perri, 2000. "International Business Cycles with Endogenous Incomplete Markets," NBER Working Papers 7870, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Enrique G. Mendoza & Assaf Razin & Linda L. Tesar, 1994. "Effective Tax Rates in Macroeconomics: Cross-Country Estimates of Tax Rates on Factor Incomes and Consumption," NBER Working Papers 4864, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Hellwig, Martin & Irmen, Andreas, 1999. "Endogenous technical change in a competitive economy," Papers 99-53, Sonderforschungsbreich 504.
  7. Patrick Francois & Huw Lloyd-Ellis, 2001. "Animal Spirits meets Creative Destruction," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 130, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal.
  8. Kiminori Matsuyama, 1996. "Growing Through Cycles," Discussion Papers 1203, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  9. repec:fth:simfra:95-08 is not listed on IDEAS
  10. Abigail Barr, 1995. "The missing factor: entrepreneurial networks, enterprises and economic growth in Ghana," Economics Series Working Papers WPS/1995-11, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  11. David Andolfatto & Glenn M. MacDonald, 1998. "Technology Diffusion and Aggregate Dynamics," Working Papers 98005, University of Waterloo, Department of Economics, revised Jan 1998.
  12. King, Robert G. & Wolman, Alexander L., 2004. "Monetary discretion, pricing complementarity and dynamic multiple equilibria," Working Paper Series 0343, European Central Bank.
  13. Patrick Francois & Huw Lloyd-Ellis, 2003. "Animal Spirits Through Creative Destruction," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(3), pages 530-550, June.
  14. Phillips, Kerk L. & Wrase, Jeff, 2006. "Is Schumpeterian `creative destruction' a plausible source of endogenous real business cycle shocks?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(11), pages 1885-1913, November.
  15. Kiminori Matsuyama, 1999. "Growing Through Cycles in an Infinitely -lived Agent Economy," Discussion Papers 1280, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  16. Aghion, Philippe, 2002. "Schumpeterian Growth Theory and the Dynamics of Income Inequality," Scholarly Articles 3350067, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  17. Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler & J. David López-Salido, 2005. "Markups, gaps and the welfare costs of business fluctuations," Economics Working Papers 836, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  18. Robert G. King & Alexander L. Wolman, 2004. "Monetary Discretion, Pricing Complementarity, and Dynamic Multiple Equilibria," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 119(4), pages 1513-1553.
  19. Olaf Posch, 2008. "Explaining output volatility: The case of taxation," CREATES Research Papers 2008-04, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  20. Jeremy Greenwood & Gregory W. Huffman, 1991. "Tax analysis in a real business cycle model: on measuring Harberger triangles and Okun gaps," Staff Report 138, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  21. Philippe Aghion, 2002. "Schumpeterian Growth Theory and the Dynamics of Income Inequality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(3), pages 855-882, May.
  22. Piketty, Thomas & Banerjee, Abhijit & Aghion, Philippe, 1999. "Dualism and Macroeconomic Volatility," Scholarly Articles 4554124, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  23. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2004. "A PANIC Attack on Unit Roots and Cointegration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(4), pages 1127-1177, 07.
  24. repec:fth:waterl:9503 is not listed on IDEAS
  25. Jones, John Bailey, 2002. "Has fiscal policy helped stabilize the postwar U.S. economy?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 709-746, May.
  26. Rosenberg,Nathan, 1994. "Exploring the Black Box," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521452700, November.
  27. Lilia Maliar & Serguei Maliar, 2003. "Endogenous Growth And Endogenous Business Cycles," Working Papers. Serie AD 2003-14, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
  28. Ramey, Garey & Ramey, Valerie A, 1995. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link between Volatility and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1138-51, December.
  29. Chang-Jin Kim & Charles R. Nelson, 1999. "Has The U.S. Economy Become More Stable? A Bayesian Approach Based On A Markov-Switching Model Of The Business Cycle," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 608-616, November.
  30. Robert J. Barro, 2012. "Inflation and Economic Growth," CEMA Working Papers 568, China Economics and Management Academy, Central University of Finance and Economics.
  31. Margaret M. McConnell & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2000. "Output fluctuations in the United States: what has changed since the early 1980s?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
  32. Burnside, Craig & Eichenbaum, Martin & Fisher, Jonas D. M., 2004. "Fiscal shocks and their consequences," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 89-117, March.
  33. Aghion, P. & Howitt, P., 1989. "A Model Of Growth Through Creative Destruction," UWO Department of Economics Working Papers 8904, University of Western Ontario, Department of Economics.
  34. Walde, Klaus, 2002. "The economic determinants of technology shocks in a real business cycle model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 1-28, November.
  35. Fatas, Antonio, 2000. "Endogenous growth and stochastic trends," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 107-128, February.
  36. Segerstrom, Paul S, 1998. "Endogenous Growth without Scale Effects," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(5), pages 1290-1310, December.
  37. Padovano, Fabio & Galli, Emma, 2001. "Tax Rates and Economic Growth in the OECD Countries (1950-1990)," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 39(1), pages 44-57, January.
  38. de Hek, Paul A, 1999. "On Endogenous Growth under Uncertainty," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 40(3), pages 727-44, August.
  39. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
  40. Harris, Christopher & Howitt, Peter & Vickers, John & Aghion, Philippe, 2001. "Competition, Imitation and Growth with Step-by-Step Innovation," Scholarly Articles 12375013, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  41. Michele Boldrin & David K. Levine, 1999. "Growth Cycles and Market Crashes," Levine's Working Paper Archive 2028, David K. Levine.
  42. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 1998. "Sticky price models of the business cycle: can the contract multiplier solve the persistence problem?," Staff Report 217, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  43. Gene M. Grossman & Elhanan Helpman, 1989. "Quality Ladders in the Theory of Growth," NBER Working Papers 3099, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  44. Annette Vissing-Jorgensen, 2002. "Limited Asset Market Participation and the Elasticity of Intertemporal Substitution," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(4), pages 825-853, August.
  45. Benhabib, Jess & Rustichini, Aldo, 1994. "A note on a new class of solutions to dynamic programming problems arising in economic growth," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 18(3-4), pages 807-813.
  46. Beveridge, Stephen & Nelson, Charles R., 1981. "A new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the `business cycle'," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 151-174.
  47. Xie, Danyang, 1991. "Increasing Returns and Increasing Rates of Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 429-35, April.
  48. Michele Boldrin & David K Levine, 2003. "IER Lawrence Klein Lecture: The Case Against Intellectual Monopoly," Levine's Working Paper Archive 618897000000000493, David K. Levine.
  49. Aude Pommeret & Anne Epaulard, 2001. "Recursive Utility, Endogenous Growth, and the Welfare Cost of Volatility," IMF Working Papers 01/5, International Monetary Fund.
  50. Alan J. Auerbach & Joel Slemrod, 1997. "The Economic Effects of the Tax Reform Act of 1986," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(2), pages 589-632, June.
  51. Tom Krebs, 2002. "Growth & Welfare Effects of Business Cycles In Economies with Idiosyncratic Human Capital Risk," Working Papers 2002-31, Brown University, Department of Economics.
  52. Aghion, Philippe & Harris, Christopher & Vickers, John, 1997. "Competition and growth with step-by-step innovation: An example," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 771-782, April.
  53. Wolfgang HÄRDLE & J. MARRON & L. YANG, 1996. "Discussion," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1996,65, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
  54. Boyan Jovanovic, 2004. "Asymmetric Cycles," NBER Working Papers 10573, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  55. Bental, Benjamin & Peled, Dan, 1996. "The Accumulation of Wealth and the Cyclical Generation of New Technologies: A Search Theoretic Approach," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 37(3), pages 687-718, August.
  56. Sennewald, Ken, 2005. "Controlled Stochastic Differential Equations under Poisson Uncertainty and with Unbounded Utility," Dresden Discussion Paper Series in Economics 03/05, Dresden University of Technology, Faculty of Business and Economics, Department of Economics.
  57. Antonio Fatás & Ilian Mihov, 2003. "The Case for Restricting Fiscal Policy Discretion," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 118(4), pages 1419-1447.
  58. repec:cup:macdyn:v:8:y:2004:i:5:p:559-81 is not listed on IDEAS
  59. Peter Funk, 1995. "Endogenous Growth, Temporary Equilibrium, and the Direction of Change," Discussion Paper Serie A 506, University of Bonn, Germany.
  60. Gino Gancia & Fabrizio Zilibotti, 2005. "Horizontal innovation in the theory of growth and development," Economics Working Papers 831, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  61. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1988. "Production, growth and business cycles : II. New directions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 309-341.
  62. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November.
  63. Tom Krebs, 2003. "Human Capital Risk and Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 118(2), pages 709-744.
  64. Long, John B, Jr & Plosser, Charles I, 1983. "Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(1), pages 39-69, February.
  65. Walde, Klaus, 1999. "Optimal Saving under Poisson Uncertainty," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 194-217, July.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:wuewep:57. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - German National Library of Economics)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.