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I - Q Cycles

  • Patrick Francois

    (University of British Columbia)

  • Huw Lloyd- Ellis

    (Queen's University)

We develop a model of 'intrinsic' business cycles, driven by the decentralized behaviour of entrepreneurs and firms making continuous, divisible improvements in their productivity. We show how equilibrium cycles, associated with strategic delays in implementation and endogenous innovation, arise even in the presence of reversible investment. We derive the implications for the cyclical evolution of both tangible (physical) and intangible (knowledge) capital. In particular, our framework is consistent with key aspects of the somewhat puzzling relationship between fixed capital formation and the stockmarket at business cycle frequencies.

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File URL: http://128.118.178.162/eps/mac/papers/0511/0511023.pdf
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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Macroeconomics with number 0511023.

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Length: 41 pages
Date of creation: 22 Nov 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0511023
Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 41
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://128.118.178.162

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  1. Scott Freeman & Dong-Pyo Hong & Dan Peled, 1999. "Endogenous Cycles and Growth with Indivisible Technological Developments," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 2(2), pages 402-432, April.
  2. Robert E. Hall, 1999. "The Stock Market and Capital Accumulation," NBER Working Papers 7180, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. David Andolfatto & Glenn MacDonald, 1998. "Technology Diffusion and Aggregate Dynamics," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 1(2), pages 338-370, April.
  4. Bart Hobijn & Boyan Jovanovic, 2001. "The Information-Technology Revolution and the Stock Market: Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1203-1220, December.
  5. Lawrence J. Christiano & Richard M. Todd, 1996. "Time to plan and aggregate fluctuations," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 14-27.
  6. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen & Devereux, Michael & Schiantarelli, Fabio, 1992. "Investment and Tobin's Q: Evidence from company panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1-2), pages 233-257.
  7. Gilchrist, S. & Himmelberg, C.P., 1995. "Evidence on the Role of Cash Flow for Investment," Papers 95-29, Columbia - Graduate School of Business.
  8. Patrick Francois & Huw Lloyd-Ellis, 2001. "Animal Spirits meets Creative Destruction," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 130, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal.
  9. Jovanovic, Boyan & Lach, Saul, 1997. "Product Innovation and the Business Cycle," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(1), pages 3-22, February.
  10. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393 Elsevier.
  11. John Laitner & Dmitriy Stolyarov, 2003. "Technological Change and the Stock Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1240-1267, September.
  12. Comin, D., 2002. "R&D? A Small Contribution to Productivity Growth," Working Papers 02-01, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  13. Gadi Barlevy, 2003. "The cost of business cycles under endogenous growth," Working Paper Series WP-03-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  14. Patrick Francois & Huw Lloyd-Ellis, 2005. "Schumpeterian Restructuring," Working Papers 1039, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  15. Fumio Hayashi & Tohru Inoue, 1989. "The relationship of firm growth and Q with multiple capital goods: theory and evidence from panel data on Japanese firms," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 13, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  16. Fumio Hayashi, 1981. "Tobin's Marginal q and Average a : A Neoclassical Interpretation," Discussion Papers 457, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  17. Lawrence J. Christiano & Robert J. Vigfusson, 2001. "Maximum likelihood in the frequency domain: the importance of time-to-plan," Working Paper 0106, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  18. Bental, Benjamin & Peled, Dan, 1996. "The Accumulation of Wealth and the Cyclical Generation of New Technologies: A Search Theoretic Approach," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 37(3), pages 687-718, August.
  19. Shleifer, Andrei, 1986. "Implementation Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(6), pages 1163-90, December.
  20. Aghion, P. & Howitt, P., 1989. "A Model Of Growth Through Creative Destruction," UWO Department of Economics Working Papers 8904, University of Western Ontario, Department of Economics.
  21. Gale, Douglas, 1996. "Delay and Cycles," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(2), pages 169-98, April.
  22. Wen, Yi, 1998. "Investment cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(7), pages 1139-1165, May.
  23. Patrick Francois & Huw Lloyd-Ellis, 2003. "Animal Spirits Through Creative Destruction," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(3), pages 530-550, June.
  24. Kiminori Matsuyama, 1999. "Growing Through Cycles in an Infinitely -lived Agent Economy," Discussion Papers 1280, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  25. Abel, Andrew B & Blanchard, Olivier J, 1986. "The Present Value of Profits and Cyclical Movements in Investment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(2), pages 249-73, March.
  26. Walde, Klaus, 2002. "The economic determinants of technology shocks in a real business cycle model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 1-28, November.
  27. Ellen R. McGrattan, 1991. "The macroeconomic effects of distortionary taxation," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 37, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  28. Chol-Won Li, . "Science, Diminishing Returns and Long Waves," Working Papers 9715, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
  29. Boyan Jovanovic & Jeremy Greenwood, 1999. "The Information-Technology Revolution and the Stock Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 116-122, May.
  30. Aghion, Philippe & Howitt, Peter, 1992. "A Model of Growth Through Creative Destruction," Scholarly Articles 12490578, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  31. Lawrence J. Cristiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 1998. "The business cycle: it's still a puzzle," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q IV, pages 56-83.
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