IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ctl/louvir/2004012.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Endogenous growth cycles

Author

Listed:
  • Klaus, WAELDE

    (European Commission-Brussels and University of Dresden-Germany and CESifo and IRES-Université Catholique de Louvain)

Abstract

Current explanations why a growing economy necessarily goes through periods of high and low growth predict countercyclical R&D investment. As this is very controversial from an empirical perspective, a stochastic Poisson model of endogenous growth cycles is presented where the determinants of the cyclical behaviour of R&D investment are analytically studied. Providing an explicit expression for the expected length of a cycle shows that high frequency fluctuations can indeed be understood by this approach. It is also shown how small technological improvements translate into large aggregate fluctuations.

Suggested Citation

  • Klaus, WAELDE, 2003. "Endogenous growth cycles," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2004012, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES), revised 15 Mar 2004.
    • Handle: RePEc:ctl:louvir:2004012
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://sites.uclouvain.be/econ/DP/IRES/2004-12.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Matsuyama, Kiminori, 2001. "Growing through Cycles in an Infinitely Lived Agent Economy," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 100(2), pages 220-234, October.
    2. Stephen Redding, 2002. "Path Dependence, Endogenous Innovation, and Growth," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 43(4), pages 1215-1248, November.
    3. Hassett, Kevin A & Metcalf, Gilbert E, 1999. "Investment with Uncertain Tax Policy: Does Random Tax Policy Discourage Investment?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(457), pages 372-393, July.
    4. Michele Boldrin & David Levine, 2002. "The Case Against Intellectual Property," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 209-212, May.
    5. Aghion, Philippe & Howitt, Peter, 1992. "A Model of Growth through Creative Destruction," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(2), pages 323-351, March.
    6. M. Kurz, 1971. "The General Instability of a Class of Competitive Growth Processes," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: F. H. Hahn (ed.), Readings in the Theory of Growth, chapter 17, pages 218-237, Palgrave Macmillan.
    7. Farzin, Y. H. & Huisman, K. J. M. & Kort, P. M., 1998. "Optimal timing of technology adoption," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 779-799, May.
    8. Saint-Paul, Gilles, 1993. "Productivity growth and the structure of the business cycle," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 861-883, May.
    9. Barro, Robert J & Mankiw, N Gregory & Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1995. "Capital Mobility in Neoclassical Models of Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 103-115, March.
    10. Charles I. Jones, 1995. "Time Series Tests of Endogenous Growth Models," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(2), pages 495-525.
    11. Patrick Francois & Huw Lloyd-Ellis, 2001. "Animal Spirits meets Creative Destruction," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 130, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal.
    12. Grinols, Earl L & Turnovsky, Stephen J, 1998. "Consequences of Debt Policy in a Stochastically Growing Monetary Economy," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(2), pages 495-521, May.
    13. Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi & Krusell, Per, 1997. "Long-Run Implications of Investment-Specific Technological Change," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(3), pages 342-362, June.
    14. Hellwig, Martin & Irmen, Andreas, 2001. "Endogenous Technical Change in a Competitive Economy," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 101(1), pages 1-39, November.
    15. Campbell, John Y., 1999. "Asset prices, consumption, and the business cycle," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 19, pages 1231-1303, Elsevier.
    16. Segerstrom, Paul S, 1998. "Endogenous Growth without Scale Effects," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(5), pages 1290-1310, December.
    17. Fatas, Antonio, 2000. "Do Business Cycles Cast Long Shadows? Short-Run Persistence and Economic Growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 5(2), pages 147-162, June.
    18. King, Robert G. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1999. "Resuscitating real business cycles," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 14, pages 927-1007, Elsevier.
    19. Rosenberg,Nathan, 1994. "Exploring the Black Box," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521459556, June.
    20. Boldrin, Michele & Levine, David K., 2001. "Growth Cycles and Market Crashes," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 96(1-2), pages 13-39, January.
    21. Kiminori Matsuyama, 1999. "Growing Through Cycles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(2), pages 335-348, March.
    22. Marta Aloi & Teresa Lloyd-Braga & Hans Jørgen Whitta-Jacobsen, 2003. "Endogenous business cycles and systematic stabilization policy," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(3), pages 895-915, August.
    23. Patrick Francois & Huw Lloyd-Ellis, 2003. "Animal Spirits Through Creative Destruction," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(3), pages 530-550, June.
    24. de Hek, Paul A, 1999. "On Endogenous Growth under Uncertainty," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 40(3), pages 727-744, August.
    25. Xie Danyang, 1994. "Divergence in Economic Performance: Transitional Dynamics with Multiple Equilibria," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 97-112, June.
    26. Paul S. Segerstrom, 2007. "Intel Economics," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 48(1), pages 247-280, February.
    27. Kevin A. Hassett, 1999. "Tax Policy and Investment," Books, American Enterprise Institute, number 53049, September.
    28. Bental, Benjamin & Peled, Dan, 1996. "The Accumulation of Wealth and the Cyclical Generation of New Technologies: A Search Theoretic Approach," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 37(3), pages 687-718, August.
    29. Venegas-Martinez, Francisco, 2001. "Temporary stabilization: A stochastic analysis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(9), pages 1429-1449, September.
    30. Horvath, Michael, 2000. "Sectoral shocks and aggregate fluctuations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 69-106, February.
    31. Annette Vissing-Jorgensen, 2002. "Limited Asset Market Participation and the Elasticity of Intertemporal Substitution," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(4), pages 825-853, August.
    32. Xie, Danyang, 1991. "Increasing Returns and Increasing Rates of Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 429-435, April.
    33. Harberger, Arnold C, 1998. "A Vision of the Growth Process," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(1), pages 1-32, March.
    34. de Hek, Paul & Roy, Santanu, 2001. "On Sustained Growth under Uncertainty," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 42(3), pages 801-813, August.
    35. Walde, Klaus, 2002. "The economic determinants of technology shocks in a real business cycle model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 1-28, November.
    36. Scott Freeman & Dong-Pyo Hong & Dan Peled, 1999. "Endogenous Cycles and Growth with Indivisible Technological Developments," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 2(2), pages 402-432, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wälde, Klaus, 2003. "Endogenous business cycles and growth," Dresden Discussion Paper Series in Economics 12/03, Technische Universität Dresden, Faculty of Business and Economics, Department of Economics.
    2. Olaf, POSCH & Klaus, WAELDE, 2005. "Natural volatility, welfare and taxation," Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) 2005009, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques.
    3. Olaf Posch & Klaus Wälde, 2011. "On the link between volatility and growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 285-308, December.
    4. Patrick Francois & Huw Lloyd-Ellis, 2005. "I - Q Cycles," Working Paper 1040, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    5. Taiji Harashima, 2005. "The Pro-cyclical R&D Puzzle: Technology Shocks and Pro-cyclical R&D Expenditure," Macroeconomics 0507012, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 12 Jul 2005.
    6. Wälde, Klaus, 2001. "Capital accumulation in a model of growth and creative destruction," Dresden Discussion Paper Series in Economics 09/01, Technische Universität Dresden, Faculty of Business and Economics, Department of Economics.
    7. Esteban Jaimovich, 2021. "Quality growth: from process to product innovation along the path of development," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 71(2), pages 761-793, March.
    8. Shinagawa, Shunsuke, 2013. "Endogenous fluctuations with procyclical R&D," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 274-280.
    9. Liu, Taoxiong & Liu, Zhuohao, 2022. "A growth model with endogenous technological revolutions and cycles," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    10. Bei Li & Jie Zhang, 2011. "Subsidies in an Economy with Endogenous Cycles Over Neoclassical Investment and Neo-Schumpeterian Innovation Regimes," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 11-23, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    11. Patrick Francois & Huw Lloyd-Ellis, 2004. "Investment Cycles," Macroeconomics 0405005, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 05 May 2004.
    12. Christian Bayer & Klaus Waelde, 2011. "Existence, Uniqueness and Stability of Invariant Distributions in Continuous-Time Stochastic Models," Working Papers 1111, Gutenberg School of Management and Economics, Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz, revised 21 Jul 2011.
    13. Lars Jonung, 2005. "Proceedings of the 2004 first annual DG ECFIN research conference on “Business Cycles and Growth in Europeâ€," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 227, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    14. Posch, Olaf, 2009. "Structural estimation of jump-diffusion processes in macroeconomics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 153(2), pages 196-210, December.
    15. Posch, Olaf, 2011. "Explaining output volatility: The case of taxation," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(11), pages 1589-1606.
    16. Liao, Zhong-Wei & Shao, Jinghai, 2024. "Stability and mean growth rate of stochastic Solow model driven by jump–diffusion process," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    17. Phillips, Kerk L. & Wrase, Jeff, 2006. "Is Schumpeterian `creative destruction' a plausible source of endogenous real business cycle shocks?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(11), pages 1885-1913, November.
    18. Jakub Growiec & Ingmar Schumacher, 2013. "Technological opportunity, long-run growth, and convergence," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 65(2), pages 323-351, April.
    19. Gomes, Orlando, 2015. "Optimal resource allocation in a representative investor economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 72-84.
    20. Jing Wan & Jie Zhang, 2023. "R&D subsidies, income taxes, and growth through cycles," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 76(3), pages 827-866, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Endogenous fluctuations and growth; Continuous time uncertainty;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ctl:louvir:2004012. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Virginie LEBLANC (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iruclbe.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.