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Growth Cycles and Market Crashes

  • Michele Boldrin
  • David K. Levine

Market booms are often followed by dramatic falls. To explain this requires an asymmetry in the underlying shocks. A straightforward model of technological progress generates asymmetries that are also the source of growth cycles. Assuming a representative consumer, we show that the stock market generally rises, punctuated by occasional dramatic falls. With high risk aversion, bad news causes dramatic increases in prices. Bad news does not correspond to a contraction of existing production possibilities, but to a slowdown in their rate of expansion. This economy provides a model of endogenous growth cycles in which recoveries and recessions are dictated by the adoption of innovations.

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Paper provided by David K. Levine in its series Levine's Working Paper Archive with number 2028.

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Date of creation: 05 Sep 1999
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Handle: RePEc:cla:levarc:2028
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.dklevine.com/

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  1. Boyan Jovanovic & Jeremy Greenwood, 1999. "The Information-Technology Revolution and the Stock Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 116-122, May.
  2. Jordi Gali, 1996. "Technology, Employment, and the Business Cycle: Do Technology Shocks Explain Aggregate Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 5721, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Boldrin, Michele & Christiano, Lawrence J. & Fisher, Jonas D.M., 1997. "Habit Persistence And Asset Returns In An Exchange Economy," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 1(02), pages 312-332, June.
  4. Jovanovic, Boyan & Rob, Rafael, 1987. "Long Waves and Short Waves: Growth Through Intensive and Extensive Search," Working Papers 87-35, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  5. Lee, In Ho, 1998. "Market Crashes and Informational Avalanches," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65(4), pages 741-59, October.
  6. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985. "The equity premium: A puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March.
  7. Zeira, Joseph, 1993. "Informational Overshooting, Booms and Crashes," CEPR Discussion Papers 823, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Greenwood, J. & Jovanovic, B., 1999. "The IT Revolution and the Stock Market," RCER Working Papers 460, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  9. Paul David, 2010. "The Dynamo and the Computer: An Historical Perspective on the Productivity Paradox," Levine's Working Paper Archive 115, David K. Levine.
  10. repec:cup:macdyn:v:1:y:1997:i:2:p:312-32 is not listed on IDEAS
  11. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-45, November.
  12. David, Paul A, 1990. "The Dynamo and the Computer: An Historical Perspective on the Modern Productivity Paradox," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 355-61, May.
  13. Andreas Hornstein & Per Krusell, 1996. "Can Technology Improvements Cause Productivity Slowdowns?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1996, Volume 11, pages 209-276 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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