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Psychological determinants of occurrence and magnitude of market crashes

  • Leoni, Patrick L.

We simulate the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model of Mehra-Prescott [14] to establish the link between the anticipation of endowment drops (for instance a recession) and sudden market crashes. Contrary to the commonly accepted view that those crashes are solely driven by large drops in endowments at the time they occur, the simulation shows that: 1--a large and subjective anticipation of an endowment drop amplifies the magnitude of the crash next period without permanent effects, and 2--there always exists an upper-bound on the maximal anticipation of the drop so that the crash magnitude next period remains constant regardless of the drop level. Those findings are independent of the risk aversion of agents, and of the formation process of the anticipation.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economic Modelling.

Volume (Year): 28 (2011)
Issue (Month): 5 (September)
Pages: 2190-2196

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:28:y:2011:i:5:p:2190-2196
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411

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  1. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-45, November.
  2. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985. "The equity premium: A puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March.
  3. Lux, Thomas, 1995. "Herd Behaviour, Bubbles and Crashes," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(431), pages 881-96, July.
  4. Orlean, Andre, 1995. "Bayesian interactions and collective dynamics of opinion: Herd behavior and mimetic contagion," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 257-274, October.
  5. Harrison Hong & Jeremy C. Stein, 2003. "Differences of Opinion, Short-Sales Constraints, and Market Crashes," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(2), pages 487-525.
  6. Thomas Lux, 2008. "Stochastic Behavioral Asset Pricing Models and the Stylized Facts," Kiel Working Papers 1426, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  7. Lee, In Ho, 1998. "Market Crashes and Informational Avalanches," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65(4), pages 741-59, October.
  8. Hommes, Cars & Sonnemans, Joep & Tuinstra, Jan & van de Velden, Henk, 2008. "Expectations and bubbles in asset pricing experiments," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 116-133, July.
  9. Hernandez D., Alejandro & Santos, Manuel S., 1996. "Competitive Equilibria for Infinite-Horizon Economies with Incomplete Markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 102-130, October.
  10. Kurz, Mordecai, 1994. "On the Structure and Diversity of Rational Beliefs," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 4(6), pages 877-900, October.
  11. Offerman, Theo & Sonnemans, Joep, 1998. "Learning by experience and learning by imitating successful others," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 559-575, March.
  12. Aloisio Araujo & Alvaro Sandroni, 1999. "On the Convergence to Homogeneous Expectations when Markets Are Complete," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(3), pages 663-672, May.
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