IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedmsr/279.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Growth cycles and market crashes

Author

Listed:
  • Michele Boldrin
  • David K. Levine

Abstract

Market booms are often followed by dramatic falls. To explain this requires an asymmetry in the underlying shocks. A straightforward model of technological progress generates asymmetries that are also the source of growth cycles. Assuming a representative consumer, we show that the stock market generally rises, punctuated by occasional dramatic falls. With high risk aversion, bad news causes dramatic increases in prices. Bad news does not correspond to a contraction of existing production possibilities, but to a slowdown in their rate of expansion. This economy provides a model of endogenous growth cycles in which recoveries and recessions are dictated by the adoption of innovations.

Suggested Citation

  • Michele Boldrin & David K. Levine, 2000. "Growth cycles and market crashes," Staff Report 279, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedmsr:279
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://minneapolisfed.org/research/common/pub_detail.cfm?pb_autonum_id=825
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://minneapolisfed.org/research/sr/sr279.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985. "The equity premium: A puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March.
    2. Jordi Gali, 1999. "Technology, Employment, and the Business Cycle: Do Technology Shocks Explain Aggregate Fluctuations?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(1), pages 249-271, March.
    3. Joseph Zeira, 2000. "Informational overshooting, booms and crashes," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Apr.
    4. Boyan Jovanovic & Jeremy Greenwood, 1999. "The Information-Technology Revolution and the Stock Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 116-122, May.
    5. Jovanovic, Boyan & Rob, Rafael, 1990. "Long Waves and Short Waves: Growth through Intensive and Extensive Search," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(6), pages 1391-1409, November.
    6. Boldrin, Michele & Christiano, Lawrence J. & Fisher, Jonas D.M., 1997. "Habit Persistence And Asset Returns In An Exchange Economy," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 1(2), pages 312-332, June.
    7. Jeremy Greenwood & Boyan Jovanovic, 1999. "The IT Revolution and the Stock Market," NBER Working Papers 6931, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Andreas Hornstein & Per Krusell, 1996. "Can Technology Improvements Cause Productivity Slowdowns?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1996, Volume 11, pages 209-276, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. David, Paul A, 1990. "The Dynamo and the Computer: An Historical Perspective on the Modern Productivity Paradox," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 355-361, May.
    10. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-1445, November.
    11. repec:cup:macdyn:v:1:y:1997:i:2:p:312-32 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Bart Hobijn & Boyan Jovanovic, 2001. "The Information-Technology Revolution and the Stock Market: Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1203-1220, December.
    13. In Ho Lee, 1998. "Market Crashes and Informational Avalanches," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 65(4), pages 741-759.
    14. Paul David, 2010. "The Dynamo and the Computer: An Historical Perspective on the Productivity Paradox," Levine's Working Paper Archive 115, David K. Levine.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ahn, Sanghoon, 2003. "Technology Upgrading with Learning Cost," CEI Working Paper Series 2003-21, Center for Economic Institutions, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    2. Kevin E. Beaubrun-Diant & Julien Matheron, 2008. "Rentabilités d'actifs et fluctuations économiques : une perspective d'équilibre général dynamique et stochastique," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 0(2), pages 35-63.
    3. Boyan Jovanovic & Peter L. Rousseau, 2000. "Vintage organization capital," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Apr.
    4. Bart Hobijn & Boyan Jovanovic, 2001. "The Information-Technology Revolution and the Stock Market: Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1203-1220, December.
    5. Ghossoub, Edgar A. & Beladi, Hamid, 2011. "Technological diffusion and asset prices," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 111(1), pages 1-5, April.
    6. Edgar Ghossoub, 2009. "Technological Diffusion and Asset Prices," Working Papers 0002, College of Business, University of Texas at San Antonio.
    7. Chun, Hyunbae & Kim, Jung-Wook & Lee, Jason, 2015. "How does information technology improve aggregate productivity? A new channel of productivity dispersion and reallocation," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(5), pages 999-1016.
    8. Edgar Ghossoub, 2009. "Technological Diffusion and Asset Prices," Working Papers 0002, College of Business, University of Texas at San Antonio.
    9. Anderson, Keith & Brooks, Chris & Katsaris, Apostolos, 2010. "Speculative bubbles in the S&P 500: Was the tech bubble confined to the tech sector?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 345-361, June.
    10. Ellen R. McGrattan & Edward C. Prescott, 2005. "Taxes, Regulations, and the Value of U.S. and U.K. Corporations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(3), pages 767-796.
    11. Otrok, Christopher & Ravikumar, B. & Whiteman, Charles H., 2002. "Habit formation: a resolution of the equity premium puzzle?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1261-1288, September.
    12. Leoni, Patrick L., 2011. "Psychological determinants of occurrence and magnitude of market crashes," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 2190-2196, September.
    13. Ramey, Valerie A., 2020. "Secular stagnation or technological lull?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(4), pages 767-777.
    14. Sergio Rebelo, 2005. "Real Business Cycle Models: Past, Present, and Future," NBER Working Papers 11401, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Knesl, Jiří, 2023. "Automation and the displacement of labor by capital: Asset pricing theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(2), pages 271-296.
    16. Stavros Panageas & Leonid Kogan & Nicolae Garleanu, 2009. "The Demographics of Innovation and Asset Returns," 2009 Meeting Papers 140, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    17. Collard, Fabrice & Feve, Patrick & Ghattassi, Imen, 2006. "Predictability and habit persistence," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(11), pages 2217-2260, November.
    18. David Hirshleifer & Po-Hsuan Hsu & Dongmei Li, 2018. "Innovative Originality, Profitability, and Stock Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(7), pages 2553-2605.
    19. Hyunbae Chun, 2007. "The Impact Of Information Technology On Labor Productivity Growth: Evidence From Five OECD Countries, 1970-1990," Korean Economic Review, Korean Economic Association, vol. 23, pages 5-32.
    20. Peter Woehrmann & Willi Semmler & Martin Lettau, "undated". "Nonparametric Estimation of the Time-varying Sharpe Ratio in Dynamic Asset Pricing Models," IEW - Working Papers 225, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedmsr:279. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Jannelle Ruswick (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cfrbmus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.