Informational overshooting, booms, and crashes
This paper offers an informational explanation for asset price booms and crashes. If market fundamentals change, but the length of this process of change is unknown, market participants try to learn about it by observing market outcomes. This learning generates a boom and a crash, which we call `informational overshooting'. The paper applies this idea to real-estate markets, to exchange markets and to stock markets. It shows that entry of a new group of investors to a stock market can generate such a boom and a crash. One implication of this result is that financial liberalizations tend to be followed by stock market booms and crashes.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Blanchard, Olivier Jean, 1979. "Speculative bubbles, crashes and rational expectations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 387-389.
- Gennotte, Gerard & Leland, Hayne, 1990.
"Market Liquidity, Hedging, and Crashes,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 80(5), pages 999-1021, December.
- Gerard Gennotte and Hayne Leland., 1989. "Market Liquidity, Hedging and Crashes," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-184, University of California at Berkeley.
- Gerard Gennotte and Hayne Leland., 1989. "Market Liquidity, Hedging and Crashes," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-192, University of California at Berkeley.
- David Romer, 1992.
"Rational Asset Price Movements Without News,"
NBER Working Papers
4121, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- De Long, J. Bradford & Shleifer, Andrei & Summers, Lawrence H. & Waldmann, Robert J., 1990.
"Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets,"
3725552, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Olivier Jean Blanchard & Stanley Fischer, 1989. "Lectures on Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262022834, March.
- Robert B. Barsky & J. Bradford De Long, 1989.
"Bull and Bear Markets in the Twentieth Century,"
NBER Working Papers
3171, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- White, Eugene N, 1990. "The Stock Market Boom and Crash of 1929 Revisited," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 67-83, Spring.
- Zeira, Joseph, 1987. "Investment as a Process of Search," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(1), pages 204-10, February.
- Mayer, Colin, 1987.
"New Issues in Corporate Finance,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
181, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Rafael Rob, 1991. "Learning and Capacity Expansion under Demand Uncertainty," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(4), pages 655-675.
- Garber, Peter M, 1990. "Famous First Bubbles," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 35-54, Spring.
- Benjamin M. Friedman & David I. Laibson, 1989. "Economic Implications of Extraordinary Movements in Stock Prices," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 20(2), pages 137-190.
- Mayshar, Joram, 1979. "Transaction Costs in a Model of Capital Market Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(4), pages 673-700, August.
- Andrew Caplin & John Leahy, 1993. "Sectoral Shocks, Learning, and Aggregate Fluctuations," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 60(4), pages 777-794.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:43:y:1999:i:1:p:237-257. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Shamier, Wendy)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.