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Informational overshooting, booms and crashes

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  • Joseph Zeira

Abstract

This paper offers an informational explanation to stock markets' booms and crashes. This explanation builds on the idea of 'informational overshooting': if market fundamentals change for an unknown period of time, prices experience a boom, which ends in a crash, due to informational dynamics. The paper then shows that 'informational overshooting' occurs when the market expands to a new capacity, which is unknown until it is reached. The paper presents two examples for such expansions, one due to increased productivity and one due to entry of new investors to the stock market. One implication is that financial liberalizations tend to be followed by booms and crashes.

Suggested Citation

  • Joseph Zeira, 2000. "Informational overshooting, booms and crashes," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue apr.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfpr:y:2000:i:apr:x:1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Satyajit Chatterjee, 2011. "A theory of asset price booms and busts and the uncertain return to innovation," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Q4, pages 1-8.
    2. Efraim Benmelech & Eugene Kandel & Pietro Veronesi, 2010. "Stock-Based Compensation and CEO (Dis)Incentives," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 125(4), pages 1769-1820.
    3. Broer, Tobias & Kero, Afroditi, 2011. "Great Moderation or Great Mistake: Can rising confidence in low macro-risk explain the boom in asset prices?," CEPR Discussion Papers 8700, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Han Ozsoylev, 2008. "Amplification and asymmetry in crashes and frenzies," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 157-181, March.
    5. Hirshleifer, David & Teoh, Siew Hong, 2008. "Thought and Behavior Contagion in Capital Markets," MPRA Paper 9164, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Horii, Ryo & Ono, Yoshiyasu, 2009. "Information Cycles and Depression in a Stochastic Money-in-Utility Model," MPRA Paper 13485, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Fry, John, 2012. "Exogenous and endogenous crashes as phase transitions in complex financial systems," MPRA Paper 36202, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. David Hirshleifer & Siew Hong Teoh, 2003. "Herd Behaviour and Cascading in Capital Markets: a Review and Synthesis," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 9(1), pages 25-66, March.

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