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Bubbles and Crashes with Partially Sophisticated Investors


  • Milo Bianchi
  • Philippe Jehiel


We consider a purely speculative market with finite horizon and complete information. We introduce partially sophisticated investors, who know the average buy and sell strategies of other traders, but lack a precise understanding of how these strategies depend on the history of trade. In this setting, it is common knowledge that the market is overvalued and bound to crash, but agents hold different expectations about the date of the crash. We define conditions for the existence of equilibrium bubbles and crashes, characterize their structure, and show how bubbles may last longer when the amount of fully rational traders increases.
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  • Milo Bianchi & Philippe Jehiel, 2010. "Bubbles and Crashes with Partially Sophisticated Investors," Levine's Working Paper Archive 122247000000002180, David K. Levine.
  • Handle: RePEc:cla:levarc:122247000000002180

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. John H. Cochrane, 2002. "Stocks as Money: Convenience Yield and the Tech-Stock Bubble," NBER Working Papers 8987, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Colin F. Camerer & Teck-Hua Ho & Juin-Kuan Chong, 2004. "A Cognitive Hierarchy Model of Games," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 119(3), pages 861-898.
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    4. Greenwood, Robin & Nagel, Stefan, 2009. "Inexperienced investors and bubbles," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 239-258, August.
    5. Bruno Biais & Peter Bossaerts, 1998. "Asset Prices and Trading Volume in a Beauty Contest," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 65(2), pages 307-340.
    6. Peter Temin & Hans-Joachim Voth, 2004. "Riding the South Sea Bubble," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(5), pages 1654-1668, December.
    7. De Long, J Bradford, et al, 1990. " Positive Feedback Investment Strategies and Destabilizing Rational Speculation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 379-395, June.
    8. Dilip Abreu & Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2003. "Bubbles and Crashes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(1), pages 173-204, January.
    9. De Long, J Bradford & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1990. "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(4), pages 703-738, August.
    10. Veldkamp, Laura L., 2005. "Slow boom, sudden crash," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 124(2), pages 230-257, October.
    11. Milo Bianchi & Philippe Jehiel, 2008. "Bubbles and crashes with partially sophisticated investors," PSE Working Papers halshs-00586045, HAL.
    12. Nagel, Rosemarie, 1995. "Unraveling in Guessing Games: An Experimental Study," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1313-1326, December.
    13. David Porter & Vernon Smith, 1994. "Stock market bubbles in the laboratory," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 111-128.
    14. Jeheil Phillippe, 1995. "Limited Horizon Forecast in Repeated Alternate Games," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 497-519, December.
    15. Ernan Haruvy & Yaron Lahav & Charles N. Noussair, 2007. "Traders' Expectations in Asset Markets: Experimental Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(5), pages 1901-1920, December.
    16. Bhattacharya, Utpal & Galpin, Neal & Ray, Rina & Yu, Xiaoyun, 2009. "The Role of the Media in the Internet IPO Bubble," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(03), pages 657-682, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jakub Steiner & Colin Stewart, 2012. "Price Distortions in High-Frequency Markets," Discussion Papers 1549, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
    2. Milo Bianchi & Philippe Jehiel, 2008. "Bubbles and crashes with partially sophisticated investors," PSE Working Papers halshs-00586045, HAL.
    3. Steiner, Jakub & Stewart, Colin, 2015. "Price distortions under coarse reasoning with frequent trade," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 159(PA), pages 574-595.
    4. repec:dau:papers:123456789/5361 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C72 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Noncooperative Games
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations

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