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Bubbles for Fama

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  • Robin Greenwood
  • Andrei Shleifer
  • Yang You

Abstract

We evaluate Eugene Fama?s claim that stock prices do not exhibit price bubbles. Based on US industry returns 1926-2014 and international sector returns 1985-2014, we present four findings: (1) Fama is correct in that a sharp price increase of an industry portfolio does not, on average, predict unusually low returns going forward; (2) such sharp price increases predict a substantially heightened probability of a crash; (3) attributes of the price run-up, including volatility, turnover, issuance, and the price path of the run-up can all help forecast an eventual crash and future returns; and (4) some of these characteristics can help investors earn superior returns by timing the bubble. Results hold similarly in US and international samples.

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  • Robin Greenwood & Andrei Shleifer & Yang You, 2017. "Bubbles for Fama," Working Paper 504391, Harvard University OpenScholar.
  • Handle: RePEc:qsh:wpaper:504391
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    File URL: http://scholar.harvard.edu/shleifer/node/504391
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    JEL classification:

    • G02 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Behavioral Finance: Underlying Principles
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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