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Bubbles for Fama

Author

Listed:
  • Robin Greenwood
  • Andrei Shleifer
  • Yang You

Abstract

We evaluate Eugene Fama?s claim that stock prices do not exhibit price bubbles. Based on US industry returns 1926-2014 and international sector returns 1985-2014, we present four findings: (1) Fama is correct in that a sharp price increase of an industry portfolio does not, on average, predict unusually low returns going forward; (2) such sharp price increases predict a substantially heightened probability of a crash; (3) attributes of the price run-up, including volatility, turnover, issuance, and the price path of the run-up can all help forecast an eventual crash and future returns; and (4) some of these characteristics can help investors earn superior returns by timing the bubble. Results hold similarly in US and international samples.

Suggested Citation

  • Robin Greenwood & Andrei Shleifer & Yang You, 2017. "Bubbles for Fama," Working Paper 504391, Harvard University OpenScholar.
    • Handle: RePEc:qsh:wpaper:504391
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    File URL: http://scholar.harvard.edu/shleifer/node/504391
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    Cited by:

    1. William Quinn & John D. Turner, 2023. "Bubbles in history," Business History, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 65(4), pages 636-655, May.
    2. Liao, Jingchi & Peng, Cheng & Zhu, Ning, 2019. "Price and volume dynamics in bubbles," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 102057, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    3. John Fender, 2020. "Beyond the efficient markets hypothesis: Towards a new paradigm," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(3), pages 333-351, July.
    4. Anagnostopoulos, Ioannis, 2018. "Fintech and regtech: Impact on regulators and banks," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 7-25.
    5. Wang, Shengquan & Chen, Langnan, 2019. "Driving factors of equity bubbles," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 304-317.
    6. Jorge M. Uribe & Natalia Restrepo & Montserrat Guillen, 2021. ""Price Bubbles in Lithium Markets around the World"," IREA Working Papers 202110, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Apr 2021.
    7. Moreira, Afonso M. & Martins, Luis F., 2020. "A new mechanism for anticipating price exuberance," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 199-221.
    8. Pedersen, Lasse Heje & Asness, Clifford S. & Liew, John M. & Thapar, Ashwin K, 2018. "Deep Value," CEPR Discussion Papers 12685, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Robert F. Bruner & Scott C. Miller, 2019. "The Great Crash of 1929: A Look Back After 90 Years," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 31(4), pages 43-58, December.
    10. Vincent Maurin, 2022. "Liquidity Fluctuations in Over‐the‐Counter Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(2), pages 1325-1369, April.
    11. Can Gao & Ian W. R. Martin, 2021. "Volatility, Valuation Ratios, and Bubbles: An Empirical Measure of Market Sentiment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(6), pages 3211-3254, December.
    12. David Hirshleifer, 2020. "Presidential Address: Social Transmission Bias in Economics and Finance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(4), pages 1779-1831, August.
    13. Bordalo, Pedro & Gennaioli, Nicola & Kwon, Spencer Yongwook & Shleifer, Andrei, 2021. "Diagnostic bubbles," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(3), pages 1060-1077.
    14. Lansing, Kevin J. & LeRoy, Stephen F. & Ma, Jun, 2022. "Examining the sources of excess return predictability: Stochastic volatility or market inefficiency?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 197(C), pages 50-72.
    15. Djalilov, Abdulaziz & Ülkü, Numan, 2021. "Individual investors’ trading behavior in Moscow Exchange and the COVID-19 crisis," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).
    16. Liao, Jingchi & Peng, Cameron & Zhu, Ning, 2022. "Extrapolative bubbles and trading volume," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 110514, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    17. Thorsten Lehnert, 2020. "Fear and stock price bubbles," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(5), pages 1-17, May.
    18. Riedle, Thorsten, 2018. "Using Market BuVaR as countercyclical Value at Risk approach to account for the risks of stock market crashes," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 308-321.
    19. Daniel Andrei & Bruce I. Carlin, 2017. "Asset Pricing in the Quest for the New El Dorado," NBER Working Papers 23455, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Sun, Xiaojin & Tsang, Kwok Ping, 2019. "Large price movements in housing markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 1-23.
    21. Roberto Dieci & Noemi Schmitt & Frank Westerhoff, 2025. "Boom–bust cycles and asset market participation waves: Momentum, value, risk, and herding," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 513-551, July.
    22. Gian Maria Tomat, 2021. "Housing prices, volatility, and fundamental value," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 50(3), November.
    23. Shuyu Zhang & Walter Aerts & Dunli Zhang & Zishan Chen, 2022. "Positive tone and initial coin offering," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 62(2), pages 2237-2266, June.
    24. Lee, Changju & Ku, Seungmo & Cho, Poongjin & Chang, Woojin, 2019. "Explaining future market return and evaluating market condition with common preferred spread index," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 525(C), pages 921-934.
    25. Dulani Jayasuriya Daluwathumullagamage & Alexandra Sims, 2021. "Fantastic Beasts: Blockchain Based Banking," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-43, April.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G02 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Behavioral Finance: Underlying Principles
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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