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Speculative Investor Behavior and Learning

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  • Stephen Morris

Abstract

As traders learn about the true distribution of some asset's dividends, a speculative premium occurs as each trader anticipates the possibility of reselling the asset to another trader before complete learning has occurred. Small differences in prior beliefs lead to large speculative premiums during the learning process. This phenomenon helps explain a paradox concerning the pricing of initial public offerings. The result casts light on the significance of the common prior assumption in economic models.

Suggested Citation

  • Stephen Morris, 1996. "Speculative Investor Behavior and Learning," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 111(4), pages 1111-1133.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:qjecon:v:111:y:1996:i:4:p:1111-1133.
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Milgrom, Paul & Stokey, Nancy, 1982. "Information, trade and common knowledge," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 17-27, February.
    2. Lee, Charles M C & Shleifer, Andrei & Thaler, Richard H, 1991. " Investor Sentiment and the Closed-End Fund Puzzle," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 75-109, March.
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    5. Figlewski, Stephen, 1981. "The Informational Effects of Restrictions on Short Sales: Some Empirical Evidence," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(04), pages 463-476, November.
    6. Harris, Milton & Raviv, Artur, 1993. "Differences of Opinion Make a Horse Race," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(3), pages 473-506.
    7. Ritter, Jay R, 1991. " The Long-run Performance of Initial Public Offerings," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 3-27, March.
    8. Diamond, Douglas W. & Verrecchia, Robert E., 1987. "Constraints on short-selling and asset price adjustment to private information," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 277-311, June.
    9. Biais, Bruno & Bossaerts, Peter, 1993. "Asset Prices and Volume in a Beauty Contest," Working Papers 832, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences.
    10. J. Michael Harrison & David M. Kreps, 1978. "Speculative Investor Behavior in a Stock Market with Heterogeneous Expectations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 92(2), pages 323-336.
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