Bubbles and crashes with partially sophisticated investors
We consider a purely speculative market with finite horizon and complete information. We introduce partially sophisticated investors, who know the average buy and sell strategies of other traders, but lack a precise understanding of how these strategies depend on the history of trade. In this setting, it is common knowledge that the market is overvalued and bound to crash, but agents hold different expectations about the date of the crash. We define conditions for the existence of equilibrium bubbles and crashes, characterize their structure, and show how bubbles may last longer when the amount of fully rational traders increases.
|Date of creation:||Oct 2008|
|Date of revision:|
|Note:||View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00586045|
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Hong, Harrison & Stein, Jeremy, 2007.
"Disagreement and the Stock Market,"
2894690, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Greenwood, Robin & Nagel, Stefan, 2009.
"Inexperienced investors and bubbles,"
Journal of Financial Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 239-258, August.
- De Long, J. Bradford & Shleifer, Andrei & Summers, Lawrence H. & Waldmann, Robert J., 1990.
"Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets,"
3725552, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Peter Temin & Hans-Joachim Voth, 2004.
"Riding the South See Bubble,"
213, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
- Temin, Peter & Voth, Hans-Joachim, 2004. "Riding the South Sea Bubble," CEPR Discussion Papers 4221, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Peter Temin & Hans-Joachim Voth, 2003. "Riding the South Sea Bubble," Working Papers 91, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
- Peter Temin & Joachim Voth, 2004. "Riding the South Sea bubble," Economics Working Papers 861, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
- Nagel, Rosemarie, 1995. "Unraveling in Guessing Games: An Experimental Study," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1313-26, December.
- Bruno Biais & Peter Bossaerts, 1998. "Asset Prices and Trading Volume in a Beauty Contest," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 65(2), pages 307-340.
- Ernan Haruvy & Yaron Lahav & Charles N. Noussair, 2007. "Traders' Expectations in Asset Markets: Experimental Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(5), pages 1901-1920, December.
- Milo Bianchi & Philippe Jehiel, 2010.
"Bubbles and Crashes with Partially Sophisticated Investors,"
Levine's Working Paper Archive
122247000000002180, David K. Levine.
- Milo Bianchi & Philippe Jehiel, 2008. "Bubbles and crashes with partially sophisticated investors," PSE Working Papers halshs-00586045, HAL.
- John H. Cochrane, 2002. "Stocks as Money: Convenience Yield and the Tech-Stock Bubble," NBER Working Papers 8987, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Markus K Brunnermeier, 2002.
"Bubbles and Crashes,"
FMG Discussion Papers
dp401, Financial Markets Group.
- De Long, J Bradford, et al, 1990.
" Positive Feedback Investment Strategies and Destabilizing Rational Speculation,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 379-95, June.
- J. Bradford De Long & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1989. "Positive Feedback Investment Strategies and Destabilizing Rational Speculation," NBER Working Papers 2880, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jeheil Phillippe, 1995. "Limited Horizon Forecast in Repeated Alternate Games," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 497-519, December.
- David Porter & Vernon Smith, 1994. "Stock market bubbles in the laboratory," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 111-128.
- Colin F. Camerer & Teck-Hua Ho & Juin-Kuan Chong, 2004. "A Cognitive Hierarchy Model of Games," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 119(3), pages 861-898.
- Veldkamp, Laura L., 2005. "Slow boom, sudden crash," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 124(2), pages 230-257, October.
- Bhattacharya, Utpal & Galpin, Neal & Ray, Rina & Yu, Xiaoyun, 2009. "The Role of the Media in the Internet IPO Bubble," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(03), pages 657-682, June.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:psewpa:halshs-00586045. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (CCSD)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.