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Riding the South Sea bubble

  • Peter Temin
  • Joachim Voth

This paper presents a case study of a well-informed investor in the South Sea bubble. We argue that Hoare's Bank, a fledgling West End London banker, knew that a bubble was in progress and nonetheless invested in the stock; it was profitable to "ride the bubble." Using a unique dataset on daily trades, we show that this sophisticated investor was not constrained by institutional factors such as restrictions on short sales or agency problems. Instead, this study demonstrates that predictable investor sentiment can prevent attacks on a bubble; rational investors may only attack when some coordinating event promotes joint action.

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File URL: http://www.econ.upf.edu/docs/papers/downloads/861.pdf
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Paper provided by Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra in its series Economics Working Papers with number 861.

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Date of creation: Dec 2004
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Handle: RePEc:upf:upfgen:861
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.econ.upf.edu/

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  5. Temin, Peter & Voth, Hans-Joachim, 2006. "Banking as an emerging technology: Hoare's Bank, 1702 1742," Financial History Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(02), pages 149-178, October.
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  20. J. Bradford De Long & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1989. "Positive Feedback Investment Strategies and Destabilizing Rational Speculation," NBER Working Papers 2880, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  25. Manishi Prasad & Peter Wahlqvist & Rich Shikiar & Ya-Chen Tina Shih, 2004. "A," PharmacoEconomics, Springer Healthcare | Adis, vol. 22(4), pages 225-244.
  26. Jérôme B. Detemple & Shashidhar Murthy, 1997. "Equilibrium Asset Prices and No-Arbitrage with Portfolio Constraints," CIRANO Working Papers 97s-12, CIRANO.
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  32. Terrance Odean, 1999. "Do Investors Trade Too Much?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(5), pages 1279-1298, December.
  33. deB. Harris, Frederick H. & McInish, Thomas H. & Shoesmith, Gary L. & Wood, Robert A., 1995. "Cointegration, Error Correction, and Price Discovery on Informationally Linked Security Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(04), pages 563-579, December.
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