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Riding the South Sea bubble

  • Peter Temin
  • Joachim Voth

This paper presents a case study of a well-informed investor in the South Sea bubble. We argue that Hoare's Bank, a fledgling West End London banker, knew that a bubble was in progress and nonetheless invested in the stock; it was profitable to "ride the bubble." Using a unique dataset on daily trades, we show that this sophisticated investor was not constrained by institutional factors such as restrictions on short sales or agency problems. Instead, this study demonstrates that predictable investor sentiment can prevent attacks on a bubble; rational investors may only attack when some coordinating event promotes joint action.

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File URL: http://www.econ.upf.edu/docs/papers/downloads/861.pdf
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Paper provided by Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra in its series Economics Working Papers with number 861.

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Date of creation: Dec 2004
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Handle: RePEc:upf:upfgen:861
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.econ.upf.edu/

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  1. James Dow & Gary Gorton, 1993. "Arbitrage Chains," CEPR Financial Markets Paper 0035, European Science Foundation Network in Financial Markets, c/o C.E.P.R, 77 Bastwick Street, London EC1V 3PZ..
  2. Manuel S. Santos & Michael Woodford, 1997. "Rational Asset Pricing Bubbles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(1), pages 19-58, January.
  3. Charles M. Jones & Owen A. Lamont, 2001. "Short Sale Constraints and Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 8494, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1995. "The Limits of Arbitrage," NBER Working Papers 5167, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. De Long, J Bradford & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1990. "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(4), pages 703-38, August.
  6. Detemple, Jerome & Murthy, Shashidhar, 1997. "Equilibrium Asset Prices and No-Arbitrage with Portfolio Constraints," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(4), pages 1133-74.
  7. William Goetzmann & Jonathan Ingersoll & Matthew I. Spiegel & Ivo Welch, 2002. "Sharpening Sharpe Ratios," NBER Working Papers 9116, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Lasse Heje Pederson, 2003. "Predatory trading," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24829, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  9. Bulow, Jeremy I. & Klemperer, Paul, 1991. "Rational Frenzies and Crashes," CEPR Discussion Papers 593, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Gerard Gennotte and Hayne Leland., 1989. "Market Liquidity, Hedging and Crashes," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-192, University of California at Berkeley.
  11. Dilip Abreu & Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2002. "Bubbles and crashes," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24905, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  12. Roger Koenker & Kevin F. Hallock, 2001. "Quantile Regression," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 143-156, Fall.
  13. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Stefan Nagel, 2004. "Hedge Funds and the Technology Bubble," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(5), pages 2013-2040, October.
  14. Chen, Joseph & Hong, Harrison & Stein, Jeremy C., 2002. "Breadth of ownership and stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2-3), pages 171-205.
  15. Eli Ofek & Matthew Richardson, 2003. "DotCom Mania: The Rise and Fall of Internet Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(3), pages 1113-1138, 06.
  16. Peter Temin & Hans-Joachim Voth, 2003. "Banking as an Emerging Technology: Hoares Bank 1702-1742," Working Papers 93, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
  17. Harris, Ron, 1994. "The Bubble Act: Its Passage and Its Effects on Business Organization," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 54(03), pages 610-627, September.
  18. Rappoport, Peter & White, Eugene N, 1994. "Was the Crash of 1929 Expected?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 271-81, March.
  19. Chevalier, Judith & Ellison, Glenn, 1997. "Risk Taking by Mutual Funds as a Response to Incentives," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(6), pages 1167-1200, December.
  20. Jarrow, Robert A, 1980. " Heterogeneous Expectations, Restrictions on Short Sales, and Equilibrium Asset Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 35(5), pages 1105-13, December.
  21. deB. Harris, Frederick H. & McInish, Thomas H. & Shoesmith, Gary L. & Wood, Robert A., 1995. "Cointegration, Error Correction, and Price Discovery on Informationally Linked Security Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(04), pages 563-579, December.
  22. Jeffrey Wurgler & Ekaterina Zhuravskaya, 2002. "Does Arbitrage Flatten Demand Curves for Stocks?," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75(4), pages 583-608, October.
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  27. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521457385 is not listed on IDEAS
  28. Jérôme B. Detemple & Shashidhar Murthy, 1997. "Equilibrium Asset Prices and No-Arbitrage with Portfolio Constraints," CIRANO Working Papers 97s-12, CIRANO.
  29. Tirole, Jean, 1982. "On the Possibility of Speculation under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1163-81, September.
  30. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2006. "Investor Sentiment and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(4), pages 1645-1680, 08.
  31. Dybvig, Philip H & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. " Differential Information and Performance Measurement Using a Security Market Line," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(2), pages 383-99, June.
  32. Harrison, J Michael & Kreps, David M, 1978. "Speculative Investor Behavior in a Stock Market with Heterogeneous Expectations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 92(2), pages 323-36, May.
  33. Garber, Peter M, 1990. "Famous First Bubbles," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 35-54, Spring.
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