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Bubbles and Crashes in a Behavioural Finance Model


  • Paul De Grauwe
  • Marianna Grimaldi


We develop a simple model of the exchange rate in which agents optimize their portfolio and use different forecasting rules. They check the profitability of these rules ex post and select the more profitable one. This model produces two kinds of equilibria, a fundamental and a bubble one. In a stochastic environment the model generates a complex dynamics in which bubbles and crashes occur at unpredictable moments. We contrast these "behavioural" bubbles with "rational" bubbles.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul De Grauwe & Marianna Grimaldi, 2004. "Bubbles and Crashes in a Behavioural Finance Model," CESifo Working Paper Series 1194, CESifo Group Munich.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_1194

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    Cited by:

    1. Ravi Dhar & William Goetzmann, 2005. "Bubble Investors: What Were They Thinking?," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm446, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Aug 2006.

    More about this item


    exchange rate; bounded rationality; heterogeneous agents; bubbles and crashes; complex dynamics;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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