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Bet against the trend and cash in profits: An agent‑based model of endogenous fluctuations of exchange rates

Author

Listed:
  • Federico Bassi

    (CLERSÉ - Centre Lillois d’Études et de Recherches Sociologiques et Économiques - UMR 8019 - Université de Lille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Dany Lang

    (CEPN - Centre d'Economie de l'Université Paris Nord - UP13 - Université Paris 13 - USPC - Université Sorbonne Paris Cité - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Raquel Almeida Ramos

    (CEPN - Centre d'Economie de l'Université Paris Nord - Université Sorbonne Paris Nord)

Abstract

This paper intends to contribute to the literature on the determinants of exchange rate fluctuations. We build an agent-based model inspired by the literature on behavioral finance and by empirical surveys about the behavior of foreign exchange professionals. In our artificial economy, traders allocate their wealth across heterogeneous assets based on expectations about exchange and interest rate fluctuations. Fundamentalists use both fundamental and technical signals, but overweight the former, while chartists only employ technical signals, and are either trend followers or trend contrarians. Each class of traders represents a fixed share of total traders. We find that the simultaneous co-existence of heterogeneous strategies can explain most stylized facts of foreign exchange markets, despite the absence of short-run switching from less to more profitable rules. Moreover, contrary to the predictions of the Market Selection Hypothesis, we find that heterogeneity of expectations is an essential requirement for traders' profitability, as no class of traders can dominate the market profitably.

Suggested Citation

  • Federico Bassi & Dany Lang & Raquel Almeida Ramos, 2023. "Bet against the trend and cash in profits: An agent‑based model of endogenous fluctuations of exchange rates," Post-Print hal-04428234, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04428234
    DOI: 10.1007/s00191-023-00821-x
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    Cited by:

    1. Filippo Gusella & Giorgio Ricchiuti, 2024. "Endogenous cycles in heterogeneous agent models: a state-space approach," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 34(4), pages 739-782, December.
    2. Delli Gatti, Domenico & Ferraresi, Tommaso & Gusella, Filippo & Popoyan, Lilit & Ricchiuti, Giorgio & Roventini, Andrea, 2025. "The complex interplay between exchange rate and real markets: An agent-based model exploration," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 238(C).
    3. Domenico Delli Gatti & Tommaso Ferraresi & Filippo Gusella & Lilit Popoyan & Giorgio Ricchiuti & Andrea Roventini, 2024. "The interplay between real and exchange rate market: an agent-based model approach," Working Papers - Economics wp2024_10.rdf, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Scienze per l'Economia e l'Impresa.
    4. repec:hal:cepnwp:hal-04599634 is not listed on IDEAS

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