IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/h/elg/eechap/3625_11.html
   My bibliography  Save this book chapter

Exchange Rate Dynamics: A Nonlinear Survey

In: Handbook of Research on Complexity

Author

Listed:
  • Frank H. Westerhoff

Abstract

Complexity research draws on complexity in various disciplines. This Handbook provides a comprehensive and current overview of applications of complexity theory in economics. The 15 chapters, written by leading figures in the field, cover such broad topic areas as conceptual issues, microeconomic market dynamics, aggregation and macroeconomics issues, econophysics and financial markets, international economic dynamics, evolutionary and ecological–environmental economics, and broader historical perspectives on economic complexity.

Suggested Citation

  • Frank H. Westerhoff, 2009. "Exchange Rate Dynamics: A Nonlinear Survey," Chapters, in: J. Barkley Rosser Jr. (ed.), Handbook of Research on Complexity, chapter 11, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    • Handle: RePEc:elg:eechap:3625_11
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.elgaronline.com/view/9781845420895.00020.xml
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Westerhoff Frank H. & Wieland Cristian, 2004. "Spillover Dynamics of Central Bank Interventions," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 5(4), pages 435-450, December.
    2. Day, Richard H. & Huang, Weihong, 1990. "Bulls, bears and market sheep," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 299-329, December.
    3. Thomas Lux & Eleni Samanidou & Stefan Reitz (ed.), 2005. "Nonlinear Dynamics and Heterogeneous Interacting Agents," Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, Springer, number 978-3-540-27296-0, December.
    4. J. Doyne Farmer, 2002. "Market force, ecology and evolution," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 11(5), pages 895-953, November.
    5. C. Chiarella & X-Z. He, 2001. "Asset price and wealth dynamics under heterogeneous expectations," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(5), pages 509-526.
    6. C. H. Hommes, 2001. "Financial markets as nonlinear adaptive evolutionary systems," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(1), pages 149-167.
    7. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Froot, Kenneth A, 1987. "Using Survey Data to Test Standard Propositions Regarding Exchange Rate Expectations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(1), pages 133-153, March.
    8. LeBaron, Blake, 1999. "Technical trading rule profitability and foreign exchange intervention," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 125-143, October.
    9. Thomas Lux & Michele Marchesi, 2000. "Volatility Clustering In Financial Markets: A Microsimulation Of Interacting Agents," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 3(04), pages 675-702.
    10. Rosser, J. Jr. & Ahmed, Ehsan & Hartmann, Georg C., 2003. "Volatility via social flaring," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 77-87, January.
    11. Westerhoff Frank H. & Reitz Stefan, 2003. "Nonlinearities and Cyclical Behavior: The Role of Chartists and Fundamentalists," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(4), pages 1-15, December.
    12. He, Xue-Zhong & Westerhoff, Frank H., 2005. "Commodity markets, price limiters and speculative price dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(9), pages 1577-1596, September.
    13. C. Lawrenz & F. Westerhoff, 2003. "Modeling Exchange Rate Behavior with a Genetic Algorithm," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 21(3), pages 209-229, June.
    14. Lui, Yu-Hon & Mole, David, 1998. "The use of fundamental and technical analyses by foreign exchange dealers: Hong Kong evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 535-545, June.
    15. Westerhoff, Frank H. & Dieci, Roberto, 2006. "The effectiveness of Keynes-Tobin transaction taxes when heterogeneous agents can trade in different markets: A behavioral finance approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 293-322, February.
    16. Ito, Takatoshi, 1990. "Foreign Exchange Rate Expectations: Micro Survey Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 434-449, June.
    17. Carl Chiarella & Xue-Zhong He, 2005. "An Asset Pricing Model with Adaptive Heterogeneous Agents and Wealth Effects," Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, in: Thomas Lux & Eleni Samanidou & Stefan Reitz (ed.), Nonlinear Dynamics and Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, pages 269-285, Springer.
    18. Paul Grauwe & Hans Dewachter, 1993. "A chaotic model of the exchange rate: The role of fundamentalists and chartists," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 4(4), pages 351-379, December.
    19. Carl Chiarella & Giulia Iori, 2002. "A simulation analysis of the microstructure of double auction markets," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(5), pages 346-353.
    20. Tesfatsion, Leigh & Judd, Kenneth L., 2006. "Handbook of Computational Economics, Vol. 2: Agent-Based Computational Economics," Staff General Research Papers Archive 10368, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    21. LeBaron, Blake, 2006. "Agent-based Computational Finance," Handbook of Computational Economics, in: Leigh Tesfatsion & Kenneth L. Judd (ed.), Handbook of Computational Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 24, pages 1187-1233, Elsevier.
    22. Robert J. Shiller, 2003. "From Efficient Markets Theory to Behavioral Finance," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(1), pages 83-104, Winter.
    23. William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 1997. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(5), pages 1059-1096, September.
    24. Cars Hommes & Joep Sonnemans & Jan Tuinstra & Henk van de Velden, 2005. "Coordination of Expectations in Asset Pricing Experiments," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(3), pages 955-980.
    25. Sonnemans, Joep & Hommes, Cars & Tuinstra, Jan & van de Velden, Henk, 2004. "The instability of a heterogeneous cobweb economy: a strategy experiment on expectation formation," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 453-481, August.
    26. Gu, Mu, 1995. "Market mediating behavior: An economic analysis of the security exchange specialists," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 237-256, July.
    27. LeBaron, Blake & Arthur, W. Brian & Palmer, Richard, 1999. "Time series properties of an artificial stock market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 23(9-10), pages 1487-1516, September.
    28. Hommes, Cars H., 2006. "Heterogeneous Agent Models in Economics and Finance," Handbook of Computational Economics, in: Leigh Tesfatsion & Kenneth L. Judd (ed.), Handbook of Computational Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 23, pages 1109-1186, Elsevier.
    29. Chiarella, Carl & Dieci, Roberto & Gardini, Laura, 2002. "Speculative behaviour and complex asset price dynamics: a global analysis," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 173-197, October.
    30. David Hirshleifer, 2001. "Investor Psychology and Asset Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1533-1597, August.
    31. J. Barkley Rosser, Jr. & Honggang Li, 2004. "Market Dynamics and Stock Price Volatility," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 91, Society for Computational Economics.
    32. Farmer, J. Doyne & Joshi, Shareen, 2002. "The price dynamics of common trading strategies," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 149-171, October.
    33. Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H., 1998. "Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1235-1274, August.
    34. Herbert A. Simon, 1955. "A Behavioral Model of Rational Choice," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 69(1), pages 99-118.
    35. Lux, Thomas, 1998. "The socio-economic dynamics of speculative markets: interacting agents, chaos, and the fat tails of return distributions," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 143-165, January.
    36. Frank Westerhoff, 2003. "Market-maker, inventory control and foreign exchange dynamics," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(5), pages 363-369.
    37. William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 2001. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Chapters, in: W. D. Dechert (ed.), Growth Theory, Nonlinear Dynamics and Economic Modelling, chapter 16, pages 402-438, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    38. Chen, Shu-Heng & Yeh, Chia-Hsuan, 2001. "Evolving traders and the business school with genetic programming: A new architecture of the agent-based artificial stock market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(3-4), pages 363-393, March.
    39. Raberto, Marco & Cincotti, Silvano & Focardi, Sergio M. & Marchesi, Michele, 2001. "Agent-based simulation of a financial market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 299(1), pages 319-327.
    40. Lux, Thomas, 1997. "Time variation of second moments from a noise trader/infection model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 1-38, November.
    41. Lux, Thomas, 2006. "Financial power laws: Empirical evidence, models, and mechanism," Economics Working Papers 2006-12, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
    42. Andrew W. Lo & Harry Mamaysky & Jiang Wang, 2000. "Foundations of Technical Analysis: Computational Algorithms, Statistical Inference, and Empirical Implementation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1705-1765, August.
    43. Alan Kirman, 1993. "Ants, Rationality, and Recruitment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(1), pages 137-156.
    44. Leigh Tesfatsion & Kenneth L. Judd (ed.), 2006. "Handbook of Computational Economics," Handbook of Computational Economics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 2, number 2.
    45. R. Cont, 2001. "Empirical properties of asset returns: stylized facts and statistical issues," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 223-236.
    46. Shinji Takagi, 1991. "Exchange Rate Expectations: A Survey of Survey Studies," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 38(1), pages 156-183, March.
    47. Menkhoff, Lukas, 1997. "Examining the Use of Technical Currency Analysis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(4), pages 307-318, October.
    48. Taylor, Mark P. & Allen, Helen, 1992. "The use of technical analysis in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 304-314, June.
    49. Lux, Thomas, 1995. "Herd Behaviour, Bubbles and Crashes," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(431), pages 881-896, July.
    50. Paul De Grauwe & Hans Dewachter, 2014. "Chaos in the Dornbusch Model of the Exchange Rate," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Exchange Rates and Global Financial Policies, chapter 1, pages 3-32, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    51. W. Brian Arthur & Paul Tayler, "undated". "Asset Pricing Under Endogenous Expectations in an Artificial Stock Market," Computing in Economics and Finance 1997 57, Society for Computational Economics.
    52. Frank H. Westerhoff, 2006. "Technical Analysis Based On Price-Volume Signals And The Power Of Trading Breaks," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 9(02), pages 227-244.
    53. Carl Chiarella, 1992. "The Dynamics of Speculative Behaviour," Working Paper Series 13, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    54. Johnson, Neil F. & Jefferies, Paul & Hui, Pak Ming, 2003. "Financial Market Complexity," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198526650.
    55. Carl Chiarella & Roberto Dieci & Laura Gardini, 2005. "The Dynamic Interaction of Speculation and Diversification," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(1), pages 17-52.
    56. Brock, William & Lakonishok, Josef & LeBaron, Blake, 1992. "Simple Technical Trading Rules and the Stochastic Properties of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(5), pages 1731-1764, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hermsen, Oliver & Witte, Björn-Christopher & Westerhoff, Frank, 2010. "Disclosure requirements, the release of new information and market efficiency: new insights from agent-based models," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 4, pages 1-26.
    2. Reitz, Stefan & Rülke, Jan-Christoph & Stadtmann, Georg, 2012. "Nonlinear expectations in speculative markets – Evidence from the ECB survey of professional forecasters," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 1349-1363.
    3. Westerhoff Frank H., 2008. "The Use of Agent-Based Financial Market Models to Test the Effectiveness of Regulatory Policies," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 228(2-3), pages 195-227, April.
    4. Sushko, Iryna & Tramontana, Fabio & Westerhoff, Frank & Avrutin, Viktor, 2015. "Symmetry breaking in a bull and bear financial market model," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 57-72.
    5. Zhao, Zhijun & Zhang, Xiaoqi, 2022. "A continuous heterogeneous-agent model for the co-evolution of asset price and wealth distribution in financial market," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    6. Michele Gori & Giorgio Ricchiuti, 2018. "A dynamic exchange rate model with heterogeneous agents," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 399-415, April.
    7. Barde, Sylvain, 2016. "Direct comparison of agent-based models of herding in financial markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 329-353.
    8. Agliari, Anna & Naimzada, Ahmad & Pecora, Nicolò, 2018. "Boom-bust dynamics in a stock market participation model with heterogeneous traders," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 458-468.
    9. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/7kr9gv74ut9ngo58gia97t83i7 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Gardini, Laura & Radi, Davide & Schmitt, Noemi & Sushko, Iryna & Westerhoff, Frank, 2022. "Currency manipulation and currency wars: Analyzing the dynamics of competitive central bank interventions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    11. Cafferata, Alessia & Tramontana, Fabio, 2019. "A financial market model with confirmation bias," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 252-259.
    12. Frank Westerhoff, 2012. "Interactions between the Real Economy and the Stock Market: A Simple Agent-Based Approach," Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society, Hindawi, vol. 2012, pages 1-21, July.
    13. Fabio Tramontana & Laura Gardini & Roberto Dieci & Frank Westerhoff, 2009. "The Emergence of Bull and Bear Dynamics in a Nonlinear Model of Interacting Markets," Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society, Hindawi, vol. 2009, pages 1-30, July.
    14. Westerhoff, Frank, 2011. "Interactions between the real economy and the stock market," BERG Working Paper Series 84, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
    15. Reiner Franke & Toichiro Asada, 2008. "Incorporating positions into asset pricing models with order-based strategies," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 3(2), pages 201-227, December.
    16. Gardini, L. & Radi, D. & Schmitt, N. & Sushko, I. & Westerhoff, F., 2022. "Causes of fragile stock market stability," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 483-498.
    17. Leonardo Bargigli, 2021. "A model of market making with heterogeneous speculators," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 16(1), pages 1-28, January.
    18. En-Guo Gu, 2020. "On the Price Dynamics of a Two-Dimensional Financial Market Model with Entry Levels," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2020, pages 1-23, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Troy Tassier, 2013. "Handbook of Research on Complexity, by J. Barkley Rosser, Jr. and Edward Elgar," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 39(1), pages 132-133.
    2. Antonio Doria, Francisco, 2011. "J.B. Rosser Jr. , Handbook of Research on Complexity, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, UK--Northampton, MA, USA (2009) 436 + viii pp., index, ISBN 978 1 84542 089 5 (cased)," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 78(1-2), pages 196-204, April.
    3. Detlef Seese & Christof Weinhardt & Frank Schlottmann (ed.), 2008. "Handbook on Information Technology in Finance," International Handbooks on Information Systems, Springer, number 978-3-540-49487-4, November.
    4. Hommes, Cars H., 2006. "Heterogeneous Agent Models in Economics and Finance," Handbook of Computational Economics, in: Leigh Tesfatsion & Kenneth L. Judd (ed.), Handbook of Computational Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 23, pages 1109-1186, Elsevier.
    5. Hommes, C.H., 2005. "Heterogeneous Agent Models in Economics and Finance, In: Handbook of Computational Economics II: Agent-Based Computational Economics, edited by Leigh Tesfatsion and Ken Judd , Elsevier, Amsterdam 2006," CeNDEF Working Papers 05-03, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    6. Cars Hommes & Florian Wagener, 2008. "Complex Evolutionary Systems in Behavioral Finance," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 08-054/1, Tinbergen Institute.
    7. Westerhoff, Frank, 2009. "A simple agent-based financial market model: Direct interactions and comparisons of trading profits," BERG Working Paper Series 61, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
    8. Westerhoff, Frank H. & Dieci, Roberto, 2006. "The effectiveness of Keynes-Tobin transaction taxes when heterogeneous agents can trade in different markets: A behavioral finance approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 293-322, February.
    9. Carl Chiarella & Roberto Dieci & Xue-Zhong He, 2008. "Heterogeneity, Market Mechanisms, and Asset Price Dynamics," Research Paper Series 231, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    10. Westerhoff Frank H., 2008. "The Use of Agent-Based Financial Market Models to Test the Effectiveness of Regulatory Policies," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 228(2-3), pages 195-227, April.
    11. He, Xue-Zhong & Li, Youwei, 2007. "Power-law behaviour, heterogeneity, and trend chasing," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(10), pages 3396-3426, October.
    12. Torsten Trimborn & Philipp Otte & Simon Cramer & Maximilian Beikirch & Emma Pabich & Martin Frank, 2020. "SABCEMM: A Simulator for Agent-Based Computational Economic Market Models," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 55(2), pages 707-744, February.
    13. Xue-Zhong He & Youwei Li, 2017. "The adaptiveness in stock markets: testing the stylized facts in the DAX 30," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 27(5), pages 1071-1094, November.
    14. Wieland, Cristian & Westerhoff, Frank H., 2005. "Exchange rate dynamics, central bank interventions and chaos control methods," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 117-132, September.
    15. Alessio Emanuele Biondo, 2019. "Order book modeling and financial stability," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 14(3), pages 469-489, September.
    16. Roberto Dieci & Frank Westerhoff, 2012. "A simple model of a speculative housing market," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 303-329, April.
    17. Biondo, Alessio Emanuele, 2018. "Learning to forecast, risk aversion, and microstructural aspects of financial stability," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 12, pages 1-21.
    18. Thomas Holtfort, 2019. "From standard to evolutionary finance: a literature survey," Management Review Quarterly, Springer, vol. 69(2), pages 207-232, June.
    19. Dieci, Roberto & Westerhoff, Frank, 2010. "Heterogeneous speculators, endogenous fluctuations and interacting markets: A model of stock prices and exchange rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 743-764, April.
    20. Jörn Dermietzel, 2008. "The Heterogeneous Agents Approach to Financial Markets – Development and Milestones," International Handbooks on Information Systems, in: Detlef Seese & Christof Weinhardt & Frank Schlottmann (ed.), Handbook on Information Technology in Finance, chapter 19, pages 443-464, Springer.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economics and Finance;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:elg:eechap:3625_11. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Darrel McCalla (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.e-elgar.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.