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Modeling Exchange Rate Behavior with a Genetic Algorithm

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  • C. Lawrenz
  • F. Westerhoff

Abstract

Motivated by empirical evidence, we construct a model whereheterogeneous, boundedly-rational market participants rely on a mix of technical and fundamental trading rules. The rules are applied according to a weighting scheme. Traders evaluate and update their mix of rules by genetic algorithm learning. Even for fundamental shocks with a low probability, the interaction between the traders produces a complex behavior of exchange rates. Our model simultaneously produces several stylized facts like high volatility, unit roots in the exchange rates, a fuzzy relationship between news and exchange-rate movements, cointegration between the exchange rate and its fundamental value, fat tails for returns, a declining kurtosis under time aggregation, weak evidence of mean reversion, and strong evidence of clustering in both volatility and trading volume. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 2003

Suggested Citation

  • C. Lawrenz & F. Westerhoff, 2003. "Modeling Exchange Rate Behavior with a Genetic Algorithm," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 21(3), pages 209-229, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:compec:v:21:y:2003:i:3:p:209-229
    DOI: 10.1023/A:1023943726237
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Floortje Alkemade & Han Poutré & Hans Amman, 2006. "Robust Evolutionary Algorithm Design for Socio-economic Simulation," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 28(4), pages 355-370, November.
    2. Navarro-Barrientos, Jesús Emeterio & Cantero-Álvarez, Rubén & Matias Rodrigues, João F. & Schweitzer, Frank, 2008. "Investments in random environments," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(8), pages 2035-2046.
    3. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2017. "Let the data do the talking: Empirical modelling of survey-based expectations by means of genetic programming," IREA Working Papers 201711, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised May 2017.
    4. repec:spr:qualqt:v:51:y:2017:i:6:d:10.1007_s11135-016-0416-0 is not listed on IDEAS

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