Investments in random environments
We present analytical investigations of a multiplicative stochastic process that models a simple investor dynamics in a random environment. The dynamics of the investor’s budget, x(t), depends on the stochasticity of the return on investment, r(t), for which different model assumptions are discussed. The fat-tail distribution of the budget is investigated and compared with theoretical predictions. We are mainly interested in the most probable value xmp of the budget that reaches a constant value over time. Based on an analytical investigation of the dynamics, we are able to predict xmpstat. We find a scaling law that relates the most probable value to the characteristic parameters describing the stochastic process. Our analytical results are confirmed by stochastic computer simulations that show a very good agreement with the predictions.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 387 (2008)
Issue (Month): 8 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/physica-a-statistical-mechpplications/|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- J. Emeterio Navarro Barrientos & Frank E. Walter & Frank Schweitzer, 2008. "Risk-Seeking versus Risk-Avoiding Investments in Noisy Periodic Environments," Papers 0801.4305, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2008.
- Gode, Dhananjay K & Sunder, Shyam, 1993. "Allocative Efficiency of Markets with Zero-Intelligence Traders: Market as a Partial Substitute for Individual Rationality," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(1), pages 119-37, February.
- Navarro-Barrientos, Jesús Emeterio & Cantero-Álvarez, Rubén & Matias Rodrigues, João F. & Schweitzer, Frank, 2008.
"Investments in random environments,"
Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications,
Elsevier, vol. 387(8), pages 2035-2046.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1986.
"Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
- Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
- Lux, T. & M. Marchesi, . "Volatility Clustering in Financial Markets: A Micro-Simulation of Interacting Agents," Discussion Paper Serie B 437, University of Bonn, Germany, revised Jul 1998.
- Blank, Aharon & Solomon, Sorin, 2000. "Power laws in cities population, financial markets and internet sites (scaling in systems with a variable number of components)," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 287(1), pages 279-288.
- Markowitz, Harry M., 1990.
"Foundations of Portfolio Theory,"
Nobel Prize in Economics documents
1990-1, Nobel Prize Committee.
- John Sutton, 1997. "Gibrat's Legacy," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(1), pages 40-59, March.
- Nelson, Daniel B & Cao, Charles Q, 1992. "Inequality Constraints in the Univariate GARCH Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(2), pages 229-35, April.
- C. Lawrenz & F. Westerhoff, 2003. "Modeling Exchange Rate Behavior with a Genetic Algorithm," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 21(3), pages 209-229, June.
- Marco Raberto & Silvano Cincotti & Sergio Focardi & Michele Marchesi, 2003.
"Traders' Long-Run Wealth in an Artificial Financial Market,"
Society for Computational Economics, vol. 22(2), pages 255-272, October.
- Marco Raberto & Silvano Cincott & Sergio M. Focardi & Michele Marchesi, 2002. "Traders’ long-run wealth in an artificial financial market," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 301, Society for Computational Economics.
- Hiroshi Takahashi & Takao Terano, 2003. "Agent-Based Approach to Investors? Behavior and Asset Price Fluctuation in Financial Markets," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 6(3), pages 3.
- Bera, Anil K & Higgins, Matthew L, 1993. " ARCH Models: Properties, Estimation and Testing," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(4), pages 305-66, December.
- Sorin Solomon & Peter Richmond, 2001. "Power Laws of Wealth, Market Order Volumes and Market Returns," Papers cond-mat/0102423, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2001.
- Matteo Richiardi, 2004.
"Generalizing Gibrat: Reasonable Multiplicative Models of Firm Dynamics,"
Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation,
Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 7(1), pages 2.
- Matteo Richiardi, 2003. "Generalizing Gibrat. Reasonable Multiplicative Models of Firm Dynamics," Industrial Organization 0304004, EconWPA.
- Sorin Solomon and Peter Richmond, 2001.
"Stability of Pareto-Zipf Law in Non-Stationary Economies,"
Computing in Economics and Finance 2001
11, Society for Computational Economics.
- Sorin Solomon & Peter Richmond, 2000. "Stability of Pareto-Zipf Law in Non-Stationary Economies," Papers cond-mat/0012479, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2001.
- Solomon, Sorin & Richmond, Peter, 2001. "Power laws of wealth, market order volumes and market returns," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 299(1), pages 188-197.
- Carpenter, Jeffrey P, 2002. "Evolutionary Models of Bargaining: Comparing Agent-Based Computational and Analytical Approaches to Understanding Convention Evolution," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 19(1), pages 25-49, February.
- Klos, Tomas B. & Nooteboom, Bart, 2001. "Agent-based computational transaction cost economics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(3-4), pages 503-526, March.
- Aoyama, Hideaki & Fujiwara, Yoshi & Souma, Wataru, 2004. "Kinematics and dynamics of Pareto–Zipf's law and Gibrat's law," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 344(1), pages 117-121.
- Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
- Sergei Maslov & Yi-Cheng Zhang, 1998. "Optimal Investment Strategy for Risky Assets," Papers cond-mat/9801240, arXiv.org.
- Xavier Gabaix, 1999. "Zipf's Law and the Growth of Cities," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 129-132, May.
- J. Doyne Farmer & Paolo Patelli & Ilija I. Zovko, 2003. "The Predictive Power of Zero Intelligence in Financial Markets," Papers cond-mat/0309233, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2004.
- LeBaron, Blake, 2000. "Agent-based computational finance: Suggested readings and early research," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(5-7), pages 679-702, June.
- Parkes, David C. & Huberman, Bernardo A., 2001. "Multiagent Cooperative Search for Portfolio Selection," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 35(1-2), pages 124-165, April.
- Ofer Malcai & Ofer Biham & Peter Richmond & Sorin Solomon, 2002. "Theoretical Analysis and Simulations of the Generalized Lotka-Volterra Model," Papers cond-mat/0208514, arXiv.org.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:387:y:2008:i:8:p:2035-2046. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.