Generalizing Gibrat: Reasonable Multiplicative Models of Firm Dynamics
Multiplicative models of firm dynamics � la Gibrat have become a standard reference in industrial organization. However, some unpleasant properties of their implied dynamics - namely, their explosive or implosive behaviour (firm size and number collapsing to zero or increasing indefinitely) - have been given only very little attention. In this paper I investigate using simulations which modifications to the standard multiplicative model of firm dynamics lead to stable (and reasonable) distributions of firm size. I show that in order to obtain stable systems for a wide range of average growth rate, either heteroskedasticity in the growth rates has to be assumed, or entry and exit mechanisms included. In particular I show that combining the broad class of threshold entry mechanisms and the more restricted class of threshold exit mechanisms with overcapacity penalizing all firms (where entry and exit are determined with reference to an exogenously defined total capacity of the market), lead to stable distributions even in the case of growth rate homoskedasticity, given a non-zero minimum threshold for firm size.
Volume (Year): 7 (2004)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| |
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Peter Hart & Nicholas Oulton, 1999. "Gibrat, Galton and Job Generation," International Journal of the Economics of Business, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(2), pages 149-164.
- Geroski, Paul A & Samiei, Hossein & Urga, Giovanni, 1997.
"Are Differences in Firm Size Transitory or Permanent?,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
1691, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- G. Urga & P. A. Geroski & S. Lazarova & C. F. Walters, 2003. "Are differences in firm size transitory or permanent?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 47-59.
- Harhoff, Dietmar & Stahl, Konrad & Woywode, Michael, 1996.
"Legal Form, Growth and Exit of West German Firms - Empirical Results for Manufacturing, Construction, Trade and Service Industries,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
1401, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Harhoff, Dietmar & Stahl, Konrad & Woywode, Michael, 1998. "Legal Form, Growth and Exit of West German Firms--Empirical Results for Manufacturing, Construction, Trade and Service Industries," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(4), pages 453-88, December.
- Rudi Vander Vennet, 2001. "The law of proportionate effect and OECD bank sectors," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(4), pages 539-546.
- McCloughan, Patrick, 1995. "Simulation of Concentration Development from Modified Gibrat Growth-Entry-Exit Processes," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(4), pages 405-33, December.
- Hall, Bronwyn H, 1987.
"The Relationship between Firm Size and Firm Growth in the U.S. Manufacturing Sector,"
Journal of Industrial Economics,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(4), pages 583-606, June.
- Bronwyn H. Hall, 1986. "The Relationship Between Firm Size and Firm Growth in the U.S. Manufacturing Sector," NBER Working Papers 1965, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- José Fariñas & Lourdes Moreno, 2000. "Firms' Growth, Size and Age: A Nonparametric Approach," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer, vol. 17(3), pages 249-265, November.
- Evans, David S., 1986.
"Tests of Alternative Theories of Firm Growth,"
86-36, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Kumar, M S, 1985. "Growth, Acquisition Activity and Firm Size: Evidence from the United Kingdom," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(3), pages 327-38, March.
- Singh, Ajit & Whittington, Geoffrey, 1975.
"The Size and Growth of Firms,"
51715, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Variyam, Jayachandran N. & Kraybill, David S., 1992. "Empirical evidence on determinants of firm growth," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 31-36, January.
- Evans, David S, 1987.
"The Relationship between Firm Growth, Size, and Age: Estimates for 100 Manufacturing Industries,"
Journal of Industrial Economics,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(4), pages 567-81, June.
- Evans, David S., 1986. "The Relationship Between Firm Growth, Size, and Age: Estimates for 100 Manufacturing Industries," Working Papers 86-33, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Cordoba, Juan, 2001. "Balanced City Growth and Zipf's Law," Working Papers 2002-03, Rice University, Department of Economics.
- Delmar, Frederic & Davidsson, Per & Gartner, William B., 2003. "Arriving at the high-growth firm," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 189-216, March.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jas:jasssj:2003-16-2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Flaminio Squazzoni)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.