From Gibrat'S Legacy To Gibrat'S Fallacy. A Bayesian Approach To Study The Growth Of Firms
We aim at testing Gibrat's Law, a building block of the corporate growth dynamics. Using a Bayesian statistical framework that nests previous approaches, we provide evidence against Gibrat's law on average, within or across industries. Notwithstanding, data show only weak evidence of mean reversion, i.e. initial larger firms do not grow relatively slower than smaller firms. Moreover, differences in growth rates and in size steady state are persistent and firm-specific. Previous results confirming Gibrat's argument are likely to be incorrect being based on models that do not exploit appropriately all information contained in a panel data set.
|Date of creation:||Oct 2002|
|Publication status:||Published by Ivie|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: C/ Guardia Civil, 22, Esc 2a, 1o, E-46020 VALENCIA|
Phone: +34 96 319 00 50
Fax: +34 96 319 00 55
Web page: http://www.ivie.es/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- G. Urga & P. A. Geroski & S. Lazarova & C. F. Walters, 2003.
"Are differences in firm size transitory or permanent?,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 47-59.
- Geroski, Paul A & Samiei, Hossein & Urga, Giovanni, 1997. "Are Differences in Firm Size Transitory or Permanent?," CEPR Discussion Papers 1691, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Winter, S. G. & Kaniovski, Y. M. & Dosi, G., 2000. "Modeling industrial dynamics with innovative entrants," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 255-293, September.
- S.G. Winter & Y.M. Kaniovski & G. Dosi, 1998. "Modeling Industrial Dynamics with Innovative Entrants," Working Papers ir98022, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
- Sydney Winter & Yuri Kaniovski & Giovanni Dosi, 1999. "Modeling Industrial Dynamics with Innovative Entrants," LEM Papers Series 1999/01, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
- Sims, Christopher A., 1988. "Bayesian skepticism on unit root econometrics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 463-474.
- Christopher A. Sims, 1988. "Bayesian skepticism on unit root econometrics," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 3, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Chib, Siddhartha & Greenberg, Edward, 1996. "Markov Chain Monte Carlo Simulation Methods in Econometrics," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(03), pages 409-431, August.
- Siddhartha Chib & Edward Greenberg, 1994. "Markov Chain Monte Carlo Simulation Methods in Econometrics," Econometrics 9408001, EconWPA, revised 24 Oct 1994.
- Evans, David S, 1987. "The Relationship between Firm Growth, Size, and Age: Estimates for 100 Manufacturing Industries," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(4), pages 567-581, June.
- Evans, David S., 1986. "The Relationship Between Firm Growth, Size, and Age: Estimates for 100 Manufacturing Industries," Working Papers 86-33, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Pesaran, M. Hashem & Smith, Ron, 1995. "Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 79-113, July.
- Pesaran, M.H. & Smith, R., 1992. "Estimating Long-Run Relationships From Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9215, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Hall, Bronwyn H, 1987. "The Relationship between Firm Size and Firm Growth in the U.S. Manufacturing Sector," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(4), pages 583-606, June.
- Bronwyn H. Hall, 1986. "The Relationship Between Firm Size and Firm Growth in the U.S. Manufacturing Sector," NBER Working Papers 1965, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Evans, David S, 1987. "Tests of Alternative Theories of Firm Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(4), pages 657-674, August.
- Chib, Siddhartha & Greenberg, Edward, 1995. "Hierarchical analysis of SUR models with extensions to correlated serial errors and time-varying parameter models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 339-360, August.
- Timothy Dunne & Mark J. Roberts & Larry Samuelson, 1989. "The Growth and Failure of U. S. Manufacturing Plants," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 104(4), pages 671-698.
- Dunne, T. & Roberts, M.J. & Samuelson, L., 1988. "The Growth And Failure Of U.S. Manufacturing Plants," Papers 1-87-5, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
- Peter Hart & Nicholas Oulton, 1999. "Gibrat, Galton and Job Generation," International Journal of the Economics of Business, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(2), pages 149-164.
- Goddard, John & Wilson, John & Blandon, Peter, 2002. "Panel tests of Gibrat's Law for Japanese manufacturing," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 415-433, March.
- Fabio Canova & Albert Marcet, 1995. "The poor stay poor: Non-convergence across countries and regions," Economics Working Papers 137, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jun 1999.
- Canova, Fabio & Marcet, Albert, 1995. "The Poor Stay Poor: Non-Convergence Across Countries and Regions," CEPR Discussion Papers 1265, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- repec:cup:etheor:v:12:y:1996:i:3:p:409-31 is not listed on IDEAS
- Ijiri, Yuji & Simon, Herbert A, 1974. "Interpretations of Departures from the Pareto Curve Firm-Size Distributions," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(2), pages 315-331, Part I, M.
- Richard Ericson & Ariel Pakes, 1995. "Markov-Perfect Industry Dynamics: A Framework for Empirical Work," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 62(1), pages 53-82.
- Klette, Tor Jakob & Moen, Jarle & Griliches, Zvi, 2000. "Do subsidies to commercial R&D reduce market failures? Microeconometric evaluation studies1," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(4-5), pages 471-495, April.
- Francesca Lotti & Enrico Santarelli & Marco Vivarelli, 2003. "Does Gibrat's Law hold among young, small firms?," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 213-235, August.
- Cefis, Elena & Orsenigo, Luigi, 2001. "The persistence of innovative activities: A cross-countries and cross-sectors comparative analysis," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1139-1158, August.
- Jovanovic, Boyan, 1982. "Selection and the Evolution of Industry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(3), pages 649-670, May.
- Pakes, Ariel & Ericson, Richard, 1998. "Empirical Implications of Alternative Models of Firm Dynamics," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 1-45, March.
- Ariel Pakes & Richard Ericson, 1989. "Empirical Implications of Alternative Models of Firm Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 2893, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Pakes, A. & Ericson, R., 1990. "Empirical Implications Of Alternative Models Of Firm Dynamics," Papers 594, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
- McCloughan, Patrick, 1995. "Simulation of Concentration Development from Modified Gibrat Growth-Entry-Exit Processes," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(4), pages 405-433, December.
- José Fariñas & Lourdes Moreno, 2000. "Firms' Growth, Size and Age: A Nonparametric Approach," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 17(3), pages 249-265, November.
- Harhoff, Dietmar & Stahl, Konrad & Woywode, Michael, 1998. "Legal Form, Growth and Exit of West German Firms--Empirical Results for Manufacturing, Construction, Trade and Service Industries," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(4), pages 453-488, December.
- Harhoff, Dietmar & Stahl, Konrad & Woywode, Michael, 1996. "Legal Form, Growth and Exit of West German Firms - Empirical Results for Manufacturing, Construction, Trade and Service Industries," CEPR Discussion Papers 1401, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Giulio Bottazzi & Giovanni Dosi & Marco Lippi & Fabio Pammolli & Massimo Riccaboni, 2000. "Processes of corporate growth in the evolution of an innovation-driven industry. The case of pharmaceuticals," LEM Papers Series 2000/05, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ivi:wpasad:2002-19. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Departamento de Edición)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.