From Gibrat'S Legacy To Gibrat'S Fallacy. A Bayesian Approach To Study The Growth Of Firms
We aim at testing Gibrat's Law, a building block of the corporate growth dynamics. Using a Bayesian statistical framework that nests previous approaches, we provide evidence against Gibrat's law on average, within or across industries. Notwithstanding, data show only weak evidence of mean reversion, i.e. initial larger firms do not grow relatively slower than smaller firms. Moreover, differences in growth rates and in size steady state are persistent and firm-specific. Previous results confirming Gibrat's argument are likely to be incorrect being based on models that do not exploit appropriately all information contained in a panel data set.
|Date of creation:||Oct 2002|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||Published by Ivie|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: +34 96 319 00 50
Fax: +34 96 319 00 55
Web page: http://www.ivie.es/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Pesaran, M.H. & Smith, R., 1992.
"Estimating Long-Run Relationships From Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels,"
Cambridge Working Papers in Economics
9215, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Pesaran, M. Hashem & Smith, Ron, 1995. "Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 79-113, July.
- McCloughan, Patrick, 1995. "Simulation of Concentration Development from Modified Gibrat Growth-Entry-Exit Processes," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(4), pages 405-33, December.
- Pakes, A. & Ericson, R., 1990.
"Empirical Implications Of Alternative Models Of Firm Dynamics,"
594, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
- Pakes, Ariel & Ericson, Richard, 1998. "Empirical Implications of Alternative Models of Firm Dynamics," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 1-45, March.
- Ariel Pakes & Richard Ericson, 1989. "Empirical Implications of Alternative Models of Firm Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 2893, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Dunne, Timothy & Roberts, Mark J & Samuelson, Larry, 1989.
"The Growth and Failure of U.S. Manufacturing Plants,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 104(4), pages 671-98, November.
- Dunne, T. & Roberts, M.J. & Samuelson, L., 1988. "The Growth And Failure Of U.S. Manufacturing Plants," Papers 1-87-5, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
- Elena Cefis & Luigi Orsenigo, 1998.
"The Persistence of Innovative Activities. A Cross-Countries and Cross-Sectors Comparative Analysis,"
Department of Economics Working Papers
9804, Department of Economics, University of Trento, Italia.
- Cefis, Elena & Orsenigo, Luigi, 2001. "The persistence of innovative activities: A cross-countries and cross-sectors comparative analysis," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1139-1158, August.
- Canova, Fabio & Marcet, Albert, 1995.
"The Poor Stay Poor: Non-Convergence Across Countries and Regions,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
1265, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Fabio Canova & Albert Marcet, 1995. "The poor stay poor: Non-convergence across countries and regions," Economics Working Papers 137, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jun 1999.
- Evans, David S, 1987.
"Tests of Alternative Theories of Firm Growth,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(4), pages 657-74, August.
- repec:cup:etheor:v:12:y:1996:i:3:p:409-31 is not listed on IDEAS
- G. Urga & P. A. Geroski & S. Lazarova & C. F. Walters, 2003.
"Are differences in firm size transitory or permanent?,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 47-59.
- Geroski, Paul A & Samiei, Hossein & Urga, Giovanni, 1997. "Are Differences in Firm Size Transitory or Permanent?," CEPR Discussion Papers 1691, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Hall, Bronwyn H, 1987.
"The Relationship between Firm Size and Firm Growth in the U.S. Manufacturing Sector,"
Journal of Industrial Economics,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(4), pages 583-606, June.
- Bronwyn H. Hall, 1986. "The Relationship Between Firm Size and Firm Growth in the U.S. Manufacturing Sector," NBER Working Papers 1965, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Chib, Siddhartha & Greenberg, Edward, 1995. "Hierarchical analysis of SUR models with extensions to correlated serial errors and time-varying parameter models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 339-360, August.
- Evans, David S., 1986.
"The Relationship Between Firm Growth, Size, and Age: Estimates for 100 Manufacturing Industries,"
86-33, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Evans, David S, 1987. "The Relationship between Firm Growth, Size, and Age: Estimates for 100 Manufacturing Industries," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(4), pages 567-81, June.
- Harhoff, Dietmar & Stahl, Konrad & Woywode, Michael, 1998.
"Legal Form, Growth and Exit of West German Firms--Empirical Results for Manufacturing, Construction, Trade and Service Industries,"
Journal of Industrial Economics,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(4), pages 453-88, December.
- Harhoff, Dietmar & Stahl, Konrad & Woywode, Michael, 1996. "Legal Form, Growth and Exit of West German Firms - Empirical Results for Manufacturing, Construction, Trade and Service Industries," CEPR Discussion Papers 1401, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Chib, Siddhartha & Greenberg, Edward, 1996.
"Markov Chain Monte Carlo Simulation Methods in Econometrics,"
Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(03), pages 409-431, August.
- Siddhartha Chib & Edward Greenberg, 1994. "Markov Chain Monte Carlo Simulation Methods in Econometrics," Econometrics 9408001, EconWPA, revised 24 Oct 1994.
- Christopher A. Sims, 1988.
"Bayesian skepticism on unit root econometrics,"
Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics
3, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Tom Doan, . "BAYESTST: RATS procedure to perform Bayesian Unit Root test," Statistical Software Components RTS00014, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Ijiri, Yuji & Simon, Herbert A, 1974. "Interpretations of Departures from the Pareto Curve Firm-Size Distributions," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(2), pages 315-31, Part I, M.
- Peter Hart & Nicholas Oulton, 1999. "Gibrat, Galton and Job Generation," International Journal of the Economics of Business, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(2), pages 149-164.
- Goddard, John & Wilson, John & Blandon, Peter, 2002. "Panel tests of Gibrat's Law for Japanese manufacturing," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 415-433, March.
- Ericson, Richard & Pakes, Ariel, 1995. "Markov-Perfect Industry Dynamics: A Framework for Empirical Work," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(1), pages 53-82, January.
- Giulio Bottazzi & Giovanni Dosi & Marco Lippi & Fabio Pammolli & Massimo Riccaboni, 2000. "Processes of corporate growth in the evolution of an innovation-driven industry. The case of pharmaceuticals," LEM Papers Series 2000/05, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
- Klette, Tor Jakob & Moen, Jarle & Griliches, Zvi, 2000. "Do subsidies to commercial R&D reduce market failures? Microeconometric evaluation studies1," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(4-5), pages 471-495, April.
- S.G. Winter & Y.M. Kaniovski & G. Dosi, 1998.
"Modeling Industrial Dynamics with Innovative Entrants,"
ir98022, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
- Winter, S. G. & Kaniovski, Y. M. & Dosi, G., 2000. "Modeling industrial dynamics with innovative entrants," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 255-293, September.
- Sydney Winter & Yuri Kaniovski & Giovanni Dosi, 1999. "Modeling Industrial Dynamics with Innovative Entrants," LEM Papers Series 1999/01, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
- Hsiao, C. & Pesaran, M. H. & Tahmiscioglu, A. K., 1998. "Bayes Estimation of Short-run Coefficients in Dynamic Panel Data Models," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9804, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- José Fariñas & Lourdes Moreno, 2000. "Firms' Growth, Size and Age: A Nonparametric Approach," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer, vol. 17(3), pages 249-265, November.
- Francesca Lotti & Enrico Santarelli & Marco Vivarelli, 2003. "Does Gibrat's Law hold among young, small firms?," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 213-235, August.
- Jovanovic, Boyan, 1982. "Selection and the Evolution of Industry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(3), pages 649-70, May.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ivi:wpasad:2002-19. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Departamento de Edición)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.