IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Technical analysis in the foreign exchange market: a layman's guide

  • Christopher J. Neely

Economists have traditionally been skeptical of the value of technical analysis, the use of past price behavior to guide trading decisions in asset markets. Instead, they have relied on the logic of the efficient markets hypothesis. Christopher J. Neely briefly explains the fundamentals of technical analysis and the efficient markets hypothesis as applied to the foreign exchange market, evaluates the profitability of simple trading rules, and reviews recent ideas that might justify extrapolative technical analysis.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/review/97/09/9709cn.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its journal Review.

Volume (Year): (1997)
Issue (Month): Sep ()
Pages: 23-38

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlrv:y:1997:i:sep:p:23-38
Contact details of provider: Postal: P.O. Box 442, St. Louis, MO 63166
Fax: (314)444-8753
Web page: http://www.stlouisfed.org/
More information through EDIRC

Order Information: Web: http://www.stls.frb.org/research/order/pubform.html Email:


References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Jeremy J. Siegel & Richard H. Thaler, 1997. "Anomalies: The Equity Premium Puzzle," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 191-200, Winter.
  2. C.L. Osler & P.H. Kevin Chang, 1995. "Head and shoulders: not just a flaky pattern," Staff Reports 4, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  3. Charles Engel, 1995. "Why is the forward exchange rate forecast biased? A survey of recent evidence," Research Working Paper 95-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  4. Peter Fortune, 1991. "Stock market efficiency: an autopsy?," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Mar, pages 17-40.
  5. Treynor, Jack L & Ferguson, Robert, 1985. " In Defense of Technical Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 757-73, July.
  6. De Long, J. Bradford & Shleifer, Andrei & Summers, Lawrence H. & Waldmann, Robert J., 1990. "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," Scholarly Articles 3725552, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  7. Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L, 1995. "Some Empirical Evidence on the Effects of Shocks to Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(4), pages 975-1009, November.
  8. Takatoshi Ito & Richard K. Lyons & Michael T. Melvin, 1996. "Is There Private Information in the FX Market? The Tokyo Experiment," Working Papers _005, University of California at Berkeley, Haas School of Business.
  9. Taylor, Mark P. & Allen, Helen, 1992. "The use of technical analysis in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 304-314, June.
  10. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1996. "How Well do Foreign Exchange Markets Function: Might a Tobin Tax Help?," NBER Working Papers 5422, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Ray Ball, 1995. "The Theory Of Stock Market Efficiency: Accomplishments And Limitations," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 8(1), pages 4-18.
  12. Richard Meese & Kenneth Rogoff, 1981. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies: are any fit to survive?," International Finance Discussion Papers 184, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  13. Levich, Richard M. & Thomas, Lee III, 1993. "The significance of technical trading-rule profits in the foreign exchange market: a bootstrap approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(5), pages 451-474, October.
  14. Banerjee, Abhijit V, 1992. "A Simple Model of Herd Behavior," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(3), pages 797-817, August.
  15. Kocherlakota, N., 1995. "The Equity Premium: It's Still a Puzzle," Working Papers 95-05, University of Iowa, Department of Economics.
  16. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
  17. Christopher Neely & Paul Weller, 2000. "Technical analysis and central bank intervention," Working Papers 1997-002, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  18. Kirman, Alan, 1993. "Ants, Rationality, and Recruitment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 108(1), pages 137-56, February.
  19. Sweeney, Richard J, 1986. " Beating the Foreign Exchange Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(1), pages 163-82, March.
  20. Grossman, Sanford J & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1980. "On the Impossibility of Informationally Efficient Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 393-408, June.
  21. Shleifer, Andrei & Summers, Lawrence H, 1990. "The Noise Trader Approach to Finance," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 19-33, Spring.
  22. Mark, Nelson C, 1995. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Evidence on Long-Horizon Predictability," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 201-18, March.
  23. Szakmary, Andrew C. & Mathur, Ike, 1997. "Central bank intervention and trading rule profits in foreign exchange markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 513-535, August.
  24. Leahy, Michael P, 1995. "The profitability of US intervention in the foreign exchange markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(6), pages 823-844, December.
  25. Lee E. Ohanian, 1996. "When the bubble bursts: psychology or fundamentals?," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Jan, pages 3-13.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedlrv:y:1997:i:sep:p:23-38. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Anna Xiao)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.