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A simple agent-based financial market model: Direct interactions and comparisons of trading profits

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  • Westerhoff, Frank

Abstract

We develop an agent-based financial market model in which agents follow technical and fundamental trading rules to determine their speculative investment positions. A central feature of our model is that we consider direct interactions between speculators due to which they may decide to change their trading behavior. For instance, if a technical trader meets a fundamental trader and they realize that fundamental trading has been more profitable than technical trading in the recent past, the probability that the technical trader switches to fundamental trading rules is relatively high. Our simple setup is able to replicate some salient features of asset price dynamics.

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  • Westerhoff, Frank, 2009. "A simple agent-based financial market model: Direct interactions and comparisons of trading profits," BERG Working Paper Series 61, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bamber:61
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Lena Dräger & Christian R. Proaño, 2015. "Cross-Border Banking and Business Cycles in Asymmetric Currency Unions," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 201501, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics.
    2. Gervai, Pál & Trautmann, László & Wieszt, Attila, 2010. "The mission and culture of the corporation," BERG Working Paper Series 74, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
    3. Meyer, Dietmar & Shera, Adela, 2015. "Remittances' impact on the labor supply and on the deficit of current account," BERG Working Paper Series 97, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
    4. Schmitt, Noemi & Westerhoff, Frank, 2018. "Evolutionary Competition And Profit Taxes: Market Stability Versus Tax Burden," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(8), pages 2007-2031, December.
    5. Carsten Eckel, 2009. "International Trade and Retailing," CESifo Working Paper Series 2597, CESifo.
    6. Noemi Schmitt & Frank Westerhoff, 2017. "Herding behaviour and volatility clustering in financial markets," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(8), pages 1187-1203, August.
    7. Alfarano Simone & Milakovic Mishael, 2012. "Identification of Interaction Effects in Survey Expectations: A Cautionary Note," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 16(4), pages 1-23, October.
    8. Bexheti, Abdulmenaf, 2010. "Anti-crisis measures in the republic of Macedonia and their effects: Are they sufficient?," BERG Working Paper Series 70, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
    9. Franke, Reiner & Westerhoff, Frank, 2011. "Why a simple herding model may generate the stylized facts of daily returns: Explanation and estimation," BERG Working Paper Series 83, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
    10. Schmitt, Noemi & Tuinstra, Jan & Westerhoff, Frank, 2017. "Side effects of nonlinear profit taxes in an evolutionary market entry model: Abrupt changes, coexisting attractors and hysteresis problems," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 15-38.
    11. Llacay, Bàrbara & Peffer, Gilbert, 2017. "Impact of value-at-risk models on market stability," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 223-256.
    12. Imami, Drini & Lami, Endrit & Kächelein, Holger, 2011. "Political cycles in income from privatization: The case of Albania," BERG Working Paper Series 77, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
    13. Fatoke Dato, Mafaizath A., 2015. "Impact of income shock on children’s schooling and labor in a West African country," MPRA Paper 64317, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Franke, Reiner & Westerhoff, Frank, 2012. "Structural stochastic volatility in asset pricing dynamics: Estimation and model contest," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 1193-1211.
    15. Fatoke-Dato, Mafaïzath A., 2015. "Impact of an educational demand-and-supply policy on girls' education in West Africa: Heterogeneity in income, school environment and ethnicity," BERG Working Paper Series 101, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
    16. Pierdzioch Christian & Stadtmann Georg, 2010. "Herdenverhalten von Wechselkursprognostikern? / Herd Behavior of Exchange Rate Forecasters?," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 230(4), pages 436-453, August.
    17. Roman Šperka & Irena Szarowská, 2015. "Impact of a Financial Transaction Tax on a Financial Market," Working Papers 0013, Silesian University, School of Business Administration.
    18. Bexheti, Abdylmenaf & Mustafi, Besime, 2015. "Impact of public funding of education on economic growth in Macedonia," BERG Working Paper Series 98, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
    19. Proaño, Christian R. & Lojak, Benjamin, 2015. "Debt stabilization and macroeconomic volatility in monetary unions under heterogeneous sovereign risk perceptions," BERG Working Paper Series 106, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
    20. Nguyen Tien Zung, 2017. "Second order stochastic differential models for financial markets," Papers 1707.05419, arXiv.org.
    21. Seregi, János & Lelovics, Zsuzsanna & Balogh, László, 2012. "The social welfare function of forests in the light of the theory of public goods," BERG Working Paper Series 87, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Agent-based financial market models; direct interactions; evolutionary fitness measures; technical and fundamental analysis; stylized facts of financial markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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