IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this article

Structural stochastic volatility in asset pricing dynamics: Estimation and model contest

Author Info

Listed author(s):
  • Franke, Reiner
  • Westerhoff, Frank

Abstract

In the framework of small-scale agent-based financial market models, the paper starts out from the concept of structural stochastic volatility, which derives from different noise levels in the demand of fundamentalists and chartists and the time-varying market shares of the two groups. It advances several different specifications of the endogenous switching between the trading strategies and then estimates these models by the method of simulated moments (MSMs), where the choice of the moments reflects the basic stylized facts of the daily returns of a stock market index. In addition to the standard version of MSM with a quadratic loss function, we also take into account how often a great number of Monte Carlo simulation runs happen to yield moments that are all contained within their empirical confidence intervals. The model contest along these lines reveals a strong role for a (tamed) herding component. The quantitative performance of the winner model is so good that it may provide a standard for future research.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165188912000802
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control.

Volume (Year): 36 (2012)
Issue (Month): 8 ()
Pages: 1193-1211

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:36:y:2012:i:8:p:1193-1211
DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2011.10.004
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jedc

Keywords: Method of simulated moments; Moment coverage ratio; Herding; Discrete choice approach; Transition probability approach;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
  • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
  • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
  • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
  • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as
in new window


  1. Carl Chiarella & Roberto Dieci & Xue-Zhong He, 2008. "Heterogeneity, Market Mechanisms, and Asset Price Dynamics," Research Paper Series 231, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
  2. Pfeffer, Annamaria, 2010. "Staatliche Zinssubvention und Auslandsverschuldung: Eine Mittelwert-Varianz-Analyse am Beispiel Ungarn," BERG Working Paper Series 72, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
  3. Lee, Bong-Soo & Ingram, Beth Fisher, 1991. "Simulation estimation of time-series models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2-3), pages 197-205, February.
  4. Bernd Hayo & Matthias Wrede, 2004. "Fiscal equalisation: Principles and an application to the European Union," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 23(3), pages 333-348, December.
  5. Lines Marji & Westerhoff Frank, 2012. "Effects of Inflation Expectations on Macroeconomic Dynamics: Extrapolative Versus Regressive Expectations," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 16(4), pages 1-30, October.
  6. Treier, Volker, 1999. "Unemployment in reforming countries: Causes, fiscal impacts and the success of transformation," BERG Working Paper Series 29, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
  7. Boswijk, H. Peter & Hommes, Cars H. & Manzan, Sebastiano, 2007. "Behavioral heterogeneity in stock prices," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1938-1970, June.
  8. Hommes, Cars, 2011. "The heterogeneous expectations hypothesis: Some evidence from the lab," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 1-24, January.
  9. Peter Winker & Manfred Gilli & Vahidin Jeleskovic, 2007. "An objective function for simulation based inference on exchange rate data," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 2(2), pages 125-145, December.
  10. Chan, Wing H & Maheu, John M, 2002. "Conditional Jump Dynamics in Stock Market Returns," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 377-389, July.
  11. Brock, William A. & de Fontnouvelle, Patrick, 2000. "Expectational diversity in monetary economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(5-7), pages 725-759, June.
  12. Wrede, Matthias, 1999. "A note on reliefs for traveling expenses to work," BERG Working Paper Series 30, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
  13. Witte, Björn-Christopher, 2009. "Temporal information gaps and market efficiency: A dynamic behavioral analysis," BERG Working Paper Series 64, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
  14. Manzan, Sebastiano & Westerhoff, Frank H., 2007. "Heterogeneous expectations, exchange rate dynamics and predictability," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 111-128, September.
  15. LeBaron, Blake, 2006. "Agent-based Computational Finance," Handbook of Computational Economics,in: Leigh Tesfatsion & Kenneth L. Judd (ed.), Handbook of Computational Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 24, pages 1187-1233 Elsevier.
  16. Alfarano Simone & Milakovic Mishael, 2012. "Identification of Interaction Effects in Survey Expectations: A Cautionary Note," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 16(4), pages 1-23, October.
  17. Kurt A. Hafner, 2015. "Tax Competition and Economic Integration," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(1), pages 45-61, 02.
  18. Amilon, Henrik, 2008. "Estimation of an adaptive stock market model with heterogeneous agents," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 342-362, March.
  19. Franke, Reiner, 2009. "Applying the method of simulated moments to estimate a small agent-based asset pricing model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 804-815, December.
  20. William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 1997. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(5), pages 1059-1096, September.
  21. Chiarella, Carl & He, Xue-Zhong & Huang, Weihong & Zheng, Huanhuan, 2012. "Estimating behavioural heterogeneity under regime switching," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 446-460.
  22. Hommes, Cars H., 2006. "Heterogeneous Agent Models in Economics and Finance," Handbook of Computational Economics,in: Leigh Tesfatsion & Kenneth L. Judd (ed.), Handbook of Computational Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 23, pages 1109-1186 Elsevier.
  23. Nusser, Michael, 1999. "The implications of wage structure rigidity on human capital accumulation, economic growth and unemployment: A Schumpeterian approach to endogenous growth theory," BERG Working Paper Series 28, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
  24. Simone Alfarano & Thomas Lux & Friedrich Wagner, 2005. "Estimation of Agent-Based Models: The Case of an Asymmetric Herding Model," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 26(1), pages 19-49, August.
  25. Youwei Li & Bas Donkers & Bertrand Melenberg, 2010. "Econometric analysis of microscopic simulation models," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(10), pages 1187-1201.
  26. Farmer, J. Doyne & Joshi, Shareen, 2002. "The price dynamics of common trading strategies," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 149-171, October.
  27. Gilli, M. & Winker, P., 2003. "A global optimization heuristic for estimating agent based models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 299-312, March.
  28. Szüle, Borbála, 2003. "Inside financial conglomerates: Effects in the Hungarian pension fund markets," BERG Working Paper Series 42, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
  29. Kocherlakota, Narayana R., 1990. "On tests of representative consumer asset pricing models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 285-304, October.
  30. Westerhoff, Frank, 2009. "A simple agent-based financial market model: Direct interactions and comparisons of trading profits," BERG Working Paper Series 61, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
  31. Bjørn Eraker, 2004. "Do Stock Prices and Volatility Jump? Reconciling Evidence from Spot and Option Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(3), pages 1367-1404, 06.
  32. R. Cont, 2001. "Empirical properties of asset returns: stylized facts and statistical issues," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 223-236.
  33. Kola, Tonin & Liko, Elida, 2008. "An empirical assessment of alternative exchange rate regimes in medium term in Albania," BERG Working Paper Series 58, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
  34. Hall, Peter, 1990. "Using the bootstrap to estimate mean squared error and select smoothing parameter in nonparametric problems," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 177-203, February.
  35. He, Xue-Zhong & Li, Youwei, 2007. "Power-law behaviour, heterogeneity, and trend chasing," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(10), pages 3396-3426, October.
  36. Roberto Dieci & Frank Westerhoff, 2012. "A simple model of a speculative housing market," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 303-329, April.
  37. Carsten Eckel, 2009. "International Trade and Retailing," CESifo Working Paper Series 2597, CESifo Group Munich.
  38. Kächelein, Holger, 2004. "Capital Tax Competition and Partial Cooperation : Welfare Enhancing or not?," BERG Working Paper Series 51, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
  39. Jenei, György, 2009. "A post-accession crisis? Political developments and public sector modernization in Hungary," BERG Working Paper Series 67, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
  40. Lux, Thomas, 1995. "Herd Behaviour, Bubbles and Crashes," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(431), pages 881-896, July.
  41. Malaj, Arben & Mema, Fatmir, 2003. "Strategic privatisation: Its achievements and challenges," BERG Working Paper Series 41, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
  42. Gaber, Stevan, 2010. "Economic implications from deficit finance," BERG Working Paper Series 69, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
  43. Ching-Sheng Mao, 1990. "Hypothesis testing and finite sample properties of generalized method of moments estimators: a Monte Carlo study," Working Paper 90-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

as
in new window


Cited by:
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page.

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Access and download statistics

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:36:y:2012:i:8:p:1193-1211. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.