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Zum Stand von Transformations- und EU-Beitrittsprozess in Mittel- und Osteuropa: Eine komparative Analyse

Author

Listed:
  • Lackenbauer, Jörg
  • Wenzel, Heinz-Dieter

Abstract

Eine präzise Darstellung des seit 1989 andauernden Übergangs von der Plan- zur Marktwirtschaft (sowie von der kommunistischen Diktatur zu Demokratien westlicher Prägung) in Mittel- und Osteuropa würde den Rahmen der vorliegenden Arbeit sprengen, die nicht den eigentlichen Transformationsprozess, sondern den Prozess der EU-Osterweiterung in den Mittelpunkt stellen möchte, wenngleich beide selbstverständlich untrennbar miteinander verbunden sind und in weitreichender Interdependenz zueinander stehen. Zunächst wird, nach einer kleinen Synopse des bereits Erreichten und der noch ausstehenden größten Reformherausforderungen in Mittel- und Osteuropa, in aller Kürze und anhand ausgewählter Indikatoren eine komparative Analyse zum Stand des Transformationsprozesses in den mittel- und osteuropäischen Ländern (im folgenden: MOEL) durchgeführt. Hiermit soll das Ziel verfolgt werden, einen vergleichenden Überblick über wichtige Determinanten der EU-Beitrittsfähigkeit der mittel- und osteuropäischen Länder (wie makroökonomische, institutionelle oder rechtliche Anpassung an die westlichen Industriestaaten bzw. den EU-Durchschnitt) zu gewährleisten, der so im Rahmen eines länderspezifischen Monitorings nicht möglich wäre. Als geeignete Indikatoren werden die Transition Indicators der European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (Osteuropabank, Sitz: London) und der (Struktur-) Konvergenzindikator von Deutsche Bank Research vorgestellt. Im zweiten Teil des vorliegenden Papers wird zum einen erörtert, was für und was gegen die Festlegung konkreter EU-Beitrittstermine für die mittel- und osteuropäischen Bewerberstaaten spricht, zum anderen werden drei verschiedene Beitrittsszenarien vorgestellt, denen unterschiedliche Eintrittswahrscheinlichkeiten zugeordnet werden. Abschließend werden die Bestimmungsfaktoren dieser Beitrittsszenarien erläutert - es wird herausgearbeitet, dass diese nicht nur ökonomischen Charakters, sondern in hohem Maße historischer, politischer und institutioneller Natur sind.

Suggested Citation

  • Lackenbauer, Jörg & Wenzel, Heinz-Dieter, 2001. "Zum Stand von Transformations- und EU-Beitrittsprozess in Mittel- und Osteuropa: Eine komparative Analyse," BERG Working Paper Series 37, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bamber:37
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Alfarano Simone & Milakovic Mishael, 2012. "Identification of Interaction Effects in Survey Expectations: A Cautionary Note," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 16(4), pages 1-23, October.
    2. Kächelein, Holger & Imami, Drini & Lami, Endrit, 2008. "A new view into political business cycles: Household expenditures in Albania," BERG Working Paper Series 60, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
    3. Franke, Reiner & Westerhoff, Frank, 2012. "Structural stochastic volatility in asset pricing dynamics: Estimation and model contest," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 1193-1211.
    4. Kächelein, Holger, 2004. "Capital Tax Competition and Partial Cooperation : Welfare Enhancing or not?," BERG Working Paper Series 51, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
    5. Seregi, János & Lelovics, Zsuzsanna & Balogh, László, 2012. "The social welfare function of forests in the light of the theory of public goods," BERG Working Paper Series 87, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
    6. Wenzel, Heinz-Dieter & Lackenbauer, Jörg & Brösamle, Klaus J., 2004. "Public Debt and the Future of the EU's Stability and Growth Pact," BERG Working Paper Series 50, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
    7. Hopp, Stefan, 2004. "J.-B. Say's 1803 Treatise and the Coordination of Economic Activity," BERG Working Paper Series 47, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
    8. Gervai, Pál & Trautmann, László & Wieszt, Attila, 2010. "The mission and culture of the corporation," BERG Working Paper Series 74, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
    9. Carsten Eckel, 2009. "International Trade and Retailing," CESifo Working Paper Series 2597, CESifo.
    10. Bexheti, Abdulmenaf, 2010. "Anti-crisis measures in the republic of Macedonia and their effects: Are they sufficient?," BERG Working Paper Series 70, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
    11. Franke, Reiner & Westerhoff, Frank, 2011. "Why a simple herding model may generate the stylized facts of daily returns: Explanation and estimation," BERG Working Paper Series 83, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
    12. Kächelein, Holger, 2003. "Fiscal competition on the local level: May commuting be a source of fiscal crises?," BERG Working Paper Series 45, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
    13. Imami, Drini & Lami, Endrit & Kächelein, Holger, 2011. "Political cycles in income from privatization: The case of Albania," BERG Working Paper Series 77, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
    14. Szüle, Borbála, 2003. "Inside financial conglomerates: Effects in the Hungarian pension fund markets," BERG Working Paper Series 42, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    patterns of transition; Transition Indicators; (Struktur-) Konvergenzindikator; Beitrittstermine; Beitrittsszenarien; Bestimmungsfaktoren; Beitritts- und Ratifikationsprozess;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • P27 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - Performance and Prospects
    • P30 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions - - - General
    • P52 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Comparative Economic Systems - - - Comparative Studies of Particular Economies

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