IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper

Why a simple herding model may generate the stylized facts of daily returns: Explanation and estimation

  • Franke, Reiner
  • Westerhoff, Frank

The paper proposes an elementary agent-based asset pricing model that, invoking the two trader types of fundamentalists and chartists, comprises four features: (i) price determination by excess demand; (ii) a herding mechanism that gives rise to a macroscopic adjustment equation for the market fractions of the two groups; (iii) a rush towards fundamentalism when the price misalignment becomes too large; and (iv) a stronger noise component in the demand per chartist trader than in the demand per fundamentalist trader, which implies a structural stochastic volatility in the returns. Combining analytical and numerical methods, the interaction between these elements is studied in the phase plane of the price and a majority index. In addition, the model is estimated by the method of simulated moments, where the choice of the moments reflects the basic stylized facts of the daily returns of a stock market index. A (parametric) bootstrap procedure serves to set up an econometric test to evaluate the model's goodness-of-fit, which proves to be highly satisfactory. The bootstrap also makes sure that the estimated structural parameters are well identified.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: https://econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/54994/1/684357275.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group in its series BERG Working Paper Series with number 83.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:zbw:bamber:83
Contact details of provider: Postal:
D-96045 Bamberg

Phone: 0951/8632687
Fax: 0951/8632550
Web page: http://www.uni-bamberg.de/vwl/forschung/berg/

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H., 1998. "Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1235-1274, August.
  2. Wrede, Matthias, 1998. "Pareto efficiency of the pay-as-you-go pension system in a three-period-OLG model," BERG Working Paper Series 27, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
  3. Frank Westerhoff, 2004. "The effectiveness of Keynes-Tobin transaction taxes when heterogeneous agents can trade in different markets: A behavioral finance approach," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 14, Society for Computational Economics.
  4. Hnatkovska, Viktoria & Marmer, Vadim & Tang, Yao, 2008. "Comparison of Misspecified Calibrated Models: The Minimum Distance Approach," Microeconomics.ca working papers vadim_marmer-2008-14, Vancouver School of Economics, revised 28 Sep 2011.
  5. Peter Winker & Manfred Gilli & Vahidin Jeleskovic, 2007. "An objective function for simulation based inference on exchange rate data," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 2(2), pages 125-145, December.
  6. R. Cont, 2001. "Empirical properties of asset returns: stylized facts and statistical issues," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 223-236.
  7. Westerhoff, Frank H., 2003. "Expectations driven distortions in the foreign exchange market," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 389-412, July.
  8. Franke, Reiner, 2010. "On the specification of noise in two agent-based asset pricing models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1140-1152, June.
  9. Kächelein, Holger, 2004. "Capital Tax Competition and Partial Cooperation : Welfare Enhancing or not?," BERG Working Paper Series 51, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
  10. Donald W. K. Andrews, 2004. "the Block-Block Bootstrap: Improved Asymptotic Refinements," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(3), pages 673-700, 05.
  11. Menkhoff, Lukas & Taylor, Mark P., 2006. "The Obstinate Passion of Foreign Exchange Professionals: Technical Analysis," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-352, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
  12. Jan Tuinstra & Joep Sonnemans & Cars Hommes & Peter Heemeijer, 2006. "Price Stability and Volatility in Markets with Positive and Negative Expectations Feedback: An Experimental Investigation," Working Papers wp06-18, Warwick Business School, Finance Group.
  13. Franke, Reiner, 2009. "Applying the method of simulated moments to estimate a small agent-based asset pricing model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 804-815, December.
  14. Alfarano Simone & Milakovic Mishael, 2012. "Identification of Interaction Effects in Survey Expectations: A Cautionary Note," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 16(4), pages 1-23, October.
  15. Joseph G. Altonji & Lewis M. Segal, 1994. "Small sample bias in GMM estimation of covariance structures," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 94-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  16. Malaj, Arben & Mema, Fatmir, 2003. "Strategic privatisation: Its achievements and challenges," BERG Working Paper Series 41, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
  17. Treier, Volker, 1999. "Unemployment in reforming countries: Causes, fiscal impacts and the success of transformation," BERG Working Paper Series 29, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
  18. Bernd Hayo & Matthias Wrede, 2004. "Fiscal equalisation: Principles and an application to the European Union," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 23(3), pages 333-348, December.
  19. Menkhoff, Lukas & Rebitzky, Rafael R. & Schröder, Michael, 2009. "Heterogeneity in exchange rate expectations: Evidence on the chartist-fundamentalist approach," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 70(1-2), pages 241-252, May.
  20. Witte, Björn-Christopher, 2011. "Removing systematic patterns in returns in a financial market model by artificially intelligent traders," BERG Working Paper Series 82, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
  21. Lee, Bong-Soo & Ingram, Beth Fisher, 1991. "Simulation estimation of time-series models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2-3), pages 197-205, February.
  22. Wrede, Matthias, 1999. "Mobility and reliefs for traveling expenses to work," BERG Working Paper Series 33, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
  23. Lines Marji & Westerhoff Frank, 2012. "Effects of Inflation Expectations on Macroeconomic Dynamics: Extrapolative Versus Regressive Expectations," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 16(4), pages 1-30, October.
  24. Kurt A. Hafner, 2015. "Tax Competition and Economic Integration," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(1), pages 45-61, 02.
  25. J. Doyne Farmer & Shareen Joshi, 2000. "The Price Dynamics of Common Trading Strategies," Working Papers 00-12-069, Santa Fe Institute.
  26. Dieci, Roberto & Westerhoff, Frank, 2011. "On the inherent instability of international financial markets: Natural nonlinear interactions between stock and foreign exchange markets," BERG Working Paper Series 79, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
  27. Pfeffer, Annamaria, 2010. "Staatliche Zinssubvention und Auslandsverschuldung: Eine Mittelwert-Varianz-Analyse am Beispiel Ungarn," BERG Working Paper Series 72, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
  28. Lux, Thomas, 1998. "The socio-economic dynamics of speculative markets: interacting agents, chaos, and the fat tails of return distributions," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 143-165, January.
  29. Wrede, Matthias, 1999. "A note on reliefs for traveling expenses to work," BERG Working Paper Series 30, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
  30. Dieci, Roberto & Westerhoff, Frank, 2009. "A simple model of a speculative housing market," BERG Working Paper Series 62, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
  31. Szüle, Borbála, 2003. "Inside financial conglomerates: Effects in the Hungarian pension fund markets," BERG Working Paper Series 42, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
  32. Carsten Eckel, 2009. "International Trade and Retailing," CESifo Working Paper Series 2597, CESifo Group Munich.
  33. Lux, Thomas, 1995. "Herd Behaviour, Bubbles and Crashes," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(431), pages 881-96, July.
  34. Nusser, Michael, 1999. "The implications of wage structure rigidity on human capital accumulation, economic growth and unemployment: A Schumpeterian approach to endogenous growth theory," BERG Working Paper Series 28, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
  35. Westerhoff, Frank, 2009. "A simple agent-based financial market model: Direct interactions and comparisons of trading profits," BERG Working Paper Series 61, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
  36. Franke, Reiner & Westerhoff, Frank, 2011. "Structural stochastic volatility in asset pricing dynamics: Estimation and model contest," BERG Working Paper Series 78, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
  37. Frank H. Westerhoff, 2008. "The Use of Agent-Based Financial Market Models to Test the Effectiveness of Regulatory Policies," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 228(2+3), pages 195-227, June.
  38. Witte, Björn-Christopher, 2009. "Temporal information gaps and market efficiency: A dynamic behavioral analysis," BERG Working Paper Series 64, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
  39. Jenei, György, 2009. "A post-accession crisis? Political developments and public sector modernization in Hungary," BERG Working Paper Series 67, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
  40. Gaber, Stevan, 2010. "Economic implications from deficit finance," BERG Working Paper Series 69, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
  41. Lux, Thomas, 1997. "Time variation of second moments from a noise trader/infection model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 1-38, November.
  42. Carl Chiarella & Roberto Dieci & Xue-Zhong He, 2008. "Heterogeneity, Market Mechanisms, and Asset Price Dynamics," Research Paper Series 231, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
  43. Kola, Tonin & Liko, Elida, 2008. "An empirical assessment of alternative exchange rate regimes in medium term in Albania," BERG Working Paper Series 58, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:bamber:83. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - German National Library of Economics)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.