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Unemployment expectations: A socio-demographic analysis of the effect of news

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  • Sorić, Petar
  • Lolić, Ivana
  • Claveria, Oscar
  • Monte, Enric
  • Torra, Salvador

Abstract

In this study, we evaluate the effect of news on consumer unemployment expectations for sixteen socio-demographic groups. To this end, we construct an unemployment sentiment indicator and extract news about several economic variables. By means of genetic programming we estimate symbolic regressions that link unemployment rates in the Euro Area to qualitative expectations about a wide range of economic variables. We then use the evolved expressions to compute unemployment expectations for each consumer group. We first assess the out-of-sample forecast accuracy of the evolved indicators, obtaining better forecasts for the leading unemployment sentiment indicator than for the coincident one. Results are similar across the different socio-demographic groups. The best forecast results are obtained for respondents between 30 and 49 years. The group where we observe the bigger differences among categories is the occupation, where the lowest forecast errors are obtained for the unemployed respondents. Next, we link news about inflation, industrial production, and stock markets to unemployment expectations. With this aim we match positive and negative news with consumers’ unemployment sentiment using a distributed lag regression model for each news item. We find asymmetries in the responses of consumers’ unemployment expectations to economic news: they tend to be stronger in the case of negative news, especially in the case of inflation.

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  • Sorić, Petar & Lolić, Ivana & Claveria, Oscar & Monte, Enric & Torra, Salvador, 2019. "Unemployment expectations: A socio-demographic analysis of the effect of news," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 64-74.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:labeco:v:60:y:2019:i:c:p:64-74
    DOI: 10.1016/j.labeco.2019.06.002
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    Cited by:

    1. Petar Soric & Mateo Zokalj & Marija Logarusic, 2020. "Economic determinants of Croatian consumer confidence: real estate prices vs. macroeconomy," Interdisciplinary Description of Complex Systems - scientific journal, Croatian Interdisciplinary Society Provider Homepage: http://indecs.eu, vol. 18(2B), pages 240-257.
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    3. Claveria, Oscar & Monte, Enric & Torra, Salvador, 2020. "Economic forecasting with evolved confidence indicators," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 576-585.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Unemployment; Expectations; News; Consumer behaviour; Forecasting; Genetic programming;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C55 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Large Data Sets: Modeling and Analysis
    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General

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