The impact of news on the exchange rate of the lira and long-term interest rates
This paper analyzes the impact of news on several Italian financial variables, paying particular attention to the effect on the conditional volatility of these variables. The analysis spans a period of great financial and political turbulence in Italy, including the rapid succession of three governments. News releases (articles on political and economic events collected daily from both the Italian and international economic press) are classified as unscheduled (mostly political) and scheduled (i.e. economic and monetary statistics whose announcement is expected by market participants). The analysis is divided into two phases: first, we estimate the impact of each single political and economic news item on asset price changes and their conditional variance; second, those items that are identified as significant in the first stage are then aggregated into six dummies according to their nature and origin and employed as exogenous variables in a trivariate Garch scheme. Results show that i) news affects both the first and the second moment of the daily changes in the analyzed variables; ii) there is a significant regime shift of the unconditional variance of the analyzed variables across the three different governments; iii) the conditional variances display a significant ï¿½ albeit rather small ï¿½ seasonal dayweek pattern; iv) contrary to the conventional view, the impact of news on the conditional variance is more pronounced for exchange rates than for Italian long-term interest rates.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Ilan Goldfajn & Taimur Baig, 1999.
"Financial market contagion in the Asian crisis,"
Textos para discussão
400, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
- Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
- Takatoshi Ito & V. Vance Roley, 1986.
"News from the U.S. and Japan: which moves the yen/dollar exchange rate?,"
Research Working Paper
86-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Ito, Takatoshi & Roley, V. Vance, 1987. "News from the U.S. and Japan : Which moves the yen/dollar exchange rate?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 255-277, March.
- Takatoshi Ito & V. Vance Roley, 1986. "News from the U. S. and Japan: Which Moves the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate?," NBER Working Papers 1853, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Guillermo A. Calvo, 1996.
"Capital flows and macroeconomic management: tequila lessons,"
Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory
96-02, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Calvo, Guillermo A, 1996. "Capital Flows and Macroeconomic Management: Tequila Lessons," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 1(3), pages 207-23, July.
- Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(01), pages 122-150, February.
- Hogan, Ked & Melvin, Michael & Roberts, Dan J., 1991. "Trade balance news and exchange rates: Is there a policy signal?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1, Supple), pages S90-S99, March.
- Fabio Fornari & Antonio Mele, 2001. "Volatility smiles and the information content of news," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(2), pages 179-186.
- Ederington, Louis H. & Lee, Jae Ha, 1996. "The Creation and Resolution of Market Uncertainty: The Impact of Information Releases on Implied Volatility," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(04), pages 513-539, December.
- Mitchell, Mark L & Mulherin, J Harold, 1994. " The Impact of Public Information on the Stock Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(3), pages 923-50, July.
- Ederington, Louis H & Lee, Jae Ha, 1993. " How Markets Process Information: News Releases and Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(4), pages 1161-91, September.
- Hardouvelis, Gikas A., 1988. "Economic news, exchange rates and interest rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 23-35, March.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:19:y:2002:i:4:p:611-639. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.