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Forecasting employment in Europe: Are survey results helpful?

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  • Robert Lehmann

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  • Antje Weyh

Abstract

In this paper we evaluate the forecasting performance of employment expectations for employment growth in 15 European states. Our data cover the period from the first quarter 1998 to the fourth quarter 2012. With in-sample analyses and pseudo out-of-sample exercises, we find that for most of the European states considered, the survey-based indicator model outperforms common benchmark models. It is therefore a powerful tool for generating more accurate employment forecasts. We observe the best results for one quarter ahead predictions that are primarily the aim of the survey question. However, employment expectations also work well for longer forecast horizons in some countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert Lehmann & Antje Weyh, 2014. "Forecasting employment in Europe: Are survey results helpful?," ifo Working Paper Series 182, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifowps:_182
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Robert Lehmann, 2016. "Economic Growth and Business Cycle Forecasting at the Regional Level," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 65, March.
    2. Robert Lehmann, 2015. "Survey-based indicators vs. hard data: What improves export forecasts in Europe?," ifo Working Paper Series 196, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    3. Möller, Joachim, 2016. "Lohnungleichheit: Gibt es eine Trendwende? (German wage inequality: Is there a trend reversal?)," IAB Discussion Paper 201609, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    4. repec:taf:apeclt:v:24:y:2017:i:4:p:279-283 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Garnitz, Johanna & Lehmann, Robert & Wohlrabe, Klaus, 2017. "Forecasting GDP all over the World: Evidence from Comprehensive Survey Data," MPRA Paper 81772, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. R. Lehmann & K. Wohlrabe, 2017. "Experts, firms, consumers or even hard data? Forecasting employment in Germany," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(4), pages 279-283, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Employment forecasting; European business survey; employment expectations; Granger causality;

    JEL classification:

    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • J00 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General - - - General
    • J49 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Particular Labor Markets - - - Other

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