IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/kof/wpskof/12-320.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A real time evaluation of employment forecasts in Switzerland

Author

Abstract

We evaluate nowcasts and one- to four-quarter-ahead forecasts of Swiss full time equivalent jobs from 1998q1-2011q4, comparing forecasts of the KOF Swiss Economic Institute and of the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs with the outcome of the reference series. Both forecasts are biased downward, and they do not capture the trend of the reference series well. In addition, we show that the KOF Employment Indicator as well as the Employment Indicator of the Federal Statistical Office are useful to predict the evolution full time equivalent jobs with a lead of about one quarter.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Graff & Massimo Mannino & Michael Siegenthaler, 2012. "A real time evaluation of employment forecasts in Switzerland," KOF Working papers 12-320, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    • Handle: RePEc:kof:wpskof:12-320
    DOI: 10.3929/ethz-a-007568961
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.3929/ethz-a-007568961
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.3929/ethz-a-007568961?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Robert Lehmann & Antje Weyh, 2016. "Forecasting Employment in Europe: Are Survey Results Helpful?," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 12(1), pages 81-117, September.
    2. Siegenthaler Michael & Graff Michael & Mannino Massimo, 2016. "Characteristics and Drivers of the Swiss “Job Miracle”," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 67(1), pages 53-89, May.
    3. Michael Graff & Massimo Mannino & Michael Siegenthaler, 2014. "The Swiss "Job Miracle"," KOF Working papers 14-368, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    4. Inna S. Lola & Anton Manukov, 2020. "Forecasting Employment In Small Businesses In Russia: The Relevance Of Business Tendency Surveys," HSE Working papers WP BRP 113/STI/2020, National Research University Higher School of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    KOF-Key-arbeitsmarkt;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kof:wpskof:12-320. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/koethch.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.