IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hig/wpaper/113sti2020.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Forecasting Employment In Small Businesses In Russia: The Relevance Of Business Tendency Surveys

Author

Listed:
  • Inna S. Lola

    (National Research University Higher School of Economics)

  • Anton Manukov

    (National Research University Higher School of Economics)

Abstract

The Article Studies The Predictive Capabilities Of Qualitative Assessments Of Employment Expectations Obtained From Business Tendency Observations Of Entrepreneurial Activity, Which Are Currently A Widespread Source Of Economic Information Both In National And International Practice. The Study Is Based On Market Surveys Conducted By Rosstat, Which Characterize The Expected Level Of Business Activity In The Segment Of Small Enterprises From The 1st Quarter Of 2008 To The 2nd Quarter Of 2019. The Aim Of The Study Is To Prove The Existence Of A Stable Statistically Significant Relationship Between Predicted Estimates Of Employment With The Dynamics Of Growth Rate Cycles Of The Corresponding Quantitative Statistical Macro-Aggregates In Various Sectors And, Therefore, The Relevance Of Predictive Models Of Employment Change Based On The Results Of Business Surveys. It Is Shown That Entrepreneurial Assessments And Expectations Are Effective Predictive Indicators For Predicting Employment Dynamics In The Short Term (Two To Four Months) And Identifying Turning Points In Employment Dynamics In The Small Sector. Small Business, As One Of The Most Sensitive Segments, Is One Of The First To React To The Current Changes, Which Makes Forecasting In This Segment Especially Important.

Suggested Citation

  • Inna S. Lola & Anton Manukov, 2020. "Forecasting Employment In Small Businesses In Russia: The Relevance Of Business Tendency Surveys," HSE Working papers WP BRP 113/STI/2020, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:hig:wpaper:113sti2020
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://wp.hse.ru/data/2020/10/27/1359252200/113STI2020.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Small Business; Business Tendency Surveys; Employment; Forecasting; Russia.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • L11 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution of Firms
    • L60 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - General
    • L70 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Primary Products and Construction - - - General
    • L81 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Retail and Wholesale Trade; e-Commerce

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hig:wpaper:113sti2020. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Shamil Abdulaev or Shamil Abdulaev (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/hsecoru.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.