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The Forecasting Power of the ifo Business Survey

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  • Robert Lehmann

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Abstract

The ifo Institute is Germany’s largest business survey provider, with the ifo Business Climate Germany as one of the most important leading indicators for gross domestic product. However, the ifo Business Survey is not solely limited to the Business Climate and also delivers a multitude of further indicators to forecast several important economic variables. This paper gives a literature overview over existing studies that deal with the forecasting power of various ifo indicators both for gross domestic product and further economic variables such as exports. Overall, the various indicators from the ifo Business Survey can be seen as leading indicators for a multitude of variables representing the German economy, making them a powerful tool both for an in-depth business cycle diagnosis and for applied forecasting work.

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  • Robert Lehmann, 2020. "The Forecasting Power of the ifo Business Survey," CESifo Working Paper Series 8291, CESifo.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_8291
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    economic forecasting; business surveys; leading indicators;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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